Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 | 6 | 4.1 | +1.9 | 1 | 0.9 | +0.1 | +5 | 3.2 | +1.8 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
| 2 | Manchester United | 1 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | +4 | 2.5 | +1.5 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 |
| 3 | FC Bayern München | 1 | 5 | 2.4 | +2.6 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | +5 | 2.0 | +3.0 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 |
| 4 | FC Barcelona | 1 | 5 | 2.5 | +2.5 | 1 | 0.6 | +0.4 | +4 | 1.9 | +2.1 | 3 | 2.5 | +0.5 |
| 5 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 3 | 2.2 | +0.8 | 1 | 0.8 | +0.2 | +2 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 3 | 2.3 | +0.7 |
| 6 | Real Madrid | 1 | 2 | 3.6 | -1.6 | 1 | 2.0 | -1.0 | +1 | 1.6 | -0.6 | 3 | 2.1 | +0.9 |
| 7 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 | 2 | 1.4 | +0.6 | +1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | 3 | 2.1 | +0.9 |
| 8 | AEK Athens | 1 | 1 | 1.8 | -0.8 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9 | +1 | 0.9 | +0.1 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | +0.5 | 1 | 0.6 | +0.4 | +1 | 0.9 | +0.1 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 10 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 1 | 0.4 | +0.6 | +0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 1 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 11 | Como | 1 | 4 | 2.0 | +2.0 | 1 | 1.2 | -0.2 | +3 | 0.9 | +2.1 | 3 | 1.9 | +1.1 |
| 12 | Slavia Praha | 1 | 2 | 1.8 | +0.2 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 | -1 | 0.3 | -1.3 | 0 | 1.6 | -1.6 |
| 13 | Sporting CP | 1 | 3 | 1.4 | +1.6 | 1 | 1.2 | -0.2 | +2 | 0.2 | +1.8 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| 14 | PSV | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | +0.5 | 1 | 0.5 | +0.5 | +0 | 0.0 | +0.0 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3 |
| 15 | Club Brugge | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | 3 | 2.4 | +0.6 | -1 | -0.8 | -0.2 | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 16 | LOSC Lille | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | +0.9 | 3 | 1.8 | +1.2 | -1 | -0.8 | -0.2 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9 |
| 17 | Porto | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 2 | 2.3 | -0.3 | -2 | -1.9 | -0.1 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 |
| 18 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 1 | 3.6 | -2.6 | -1 | -3.3 | +2.3 | 0 | 0.1 | -0.1 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 3.6 | -2.6 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | +1 | 3.3 | -2.3 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 1 | 2 | 2.3 | -0.3 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | +2 | 1.9 | +0.1 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 1 | 3 | 1.8 | +1.2 | 2 | 1.1 | +0.9 | +1 | 0.8 | +0.2 | 3 | 1.9 | +1.1 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 1 | 3 | 2.4 | +0.6 | 2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | +1 | 0.8 | +0.2 | 3 | 1.8 | +1.2 |
| 5 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | +0.5 | 1 | 0.5 | +0.5 | +0 | 0.0 | +0.0 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3 |
| 6 | Galatasaray | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 3 | 1.4 | +1.6 | -2 | -0.2 | -1.8 | 0 | 1.2 | -1.2 |
| 7 | Lens | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 | 2 | 1.8 | +0.2 | +1 | -0.3 | +1.3 | 3 | 1.2 | +1.8 |
| 8 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 4 | 2.0 | +2.0 | -3 | -0.9 | -2.1 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9 |
| 9 | LASK Linz | 1 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 1 | 1.8 | -0.8 | -1 | -0.9 | -0.1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 |
| 10 | Roma | 1 | 1 | 0.4 | +0.6 | 1 | 1.2 | -0.2 | +0 | -0.8 | +0.8 | 1 | 0.7 | +0.3 |
| 11 | Atlético Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +0.4 | 2 | 1.5 | +0.5 | -1 | -0.9 | -0.1 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7 |
| 12 | Villarreal | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 | -1 | -1.3 | +0.3 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7 |
| 13 | Inter | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | -1.0 | 2 | 3.6 | -1.6 | -1 | -1.6 | +0.6 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7 |
| 14 | Viking | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +0.2 | 3 | 2.2 | +0.8 | -2 | -1.4 | -0.6 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| 15 | Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +0.4 | 5 | 2.5 | +2.5 | -4 | -1.9 | -2.1 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4 |
| 16 | Bodø / Glimt | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 5 | 2.4 | +2.6 | -5 | -2.0 | -3.0 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 |
| 17 | Sabah | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 | -4 | -2.5 | -1.5 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 |
| 18 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +0.1 | 6 | 4.1 | +1.9 | -5 | -3.2 | -1.8 | 0 | 0.2 | -0.2 |
FC Bayern München are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Champions League in 2026/2027, with 5 goals from chances worth 2.4 xG, a gap of 2.6. FC Barcelona are next on 2.5.
Arsenal are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Champions League in 2026/2027, with 1 goal from chances worth 3.6 xG, a shortfall of 2.6. Real Madrid are next on 1.6.
Lens are the luckiest side in the Champions League in 2026/2027, with 3 points from performances worth 1.2 xPts, 1.8 more than their chances deserved. Sporting CP are next on 1.5.
Slavia Praha are the unluckiest side in the Champions League in 2026/2027, with no points from performances worth 1.6 xPts, 1.6 short of what they deserved. Galatasaray are next on 1.2.
Arsenal would be top of the Champions League in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 2.8 xPts from 3.6 xG created and 0.3 conceded across one match. Paris Saint Germain are next on 2.7.
Paris Saint Germain have created the most xG in the Champions League in 2026/2027, 4.1 from one match, 4.1 a game against a competition average of 1.6. Arsenal and Real Madrid are next on 3.6.
Porto and Napoli share the least xG in the Champions League in 2026/2027, both on 0.3 from one match, 0.3 a game against a competition average of 1.6. Roma and Bodø / Glimt are next on 0.4.
Slovan Bratislava have conceded the most xG in the Champions League in 2026/2027, 4.1 from one match, 4.1 a game against a competition average of 1.6. Inter and Napoli are next on 3.6.
Arsenal and Manchester City have conceded the least xG in the Champions League in 2026/2027, both on 0.3 from one match, 0.3 a game against a competition average of 1.6. FC Bayern München and Fenerbahçe are next on 0.4.
Champions League teams have averaged 1.60 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 18 matches played, and have scored 1.92 goals a game from it. That is down from 1.61 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Champions League teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.91 a game against 1.29 away, a home advantage of +0.62, against +0.57 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 3.6 | -2.6 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | +1 | 3.3 | -2.3 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 |
| 2 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 | 6 | 4.1 | +1.9 | 1 | 0.9 | +0.1 | +5 | 3.2 | +1.8 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 1 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | +4 | 2.5 | +1.5 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 |
| 4 | FC Bayern München | 1 | 5 | 2.4 | +2.6 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | +5 | 2.0 | +3.0 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 |
| 5 | Manchester City | 1 | 2 | 2.3 | -0.3 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | +2 | 1.9 | +0.1 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 |
| 6 | FC Barcelona | 1 | 5 | 2.5 | +2.5 | 1 | 0.6 | +0.4 | +4 | 1.9 | +2.1 | 3 | 2.5 | +0.5 |
| 7 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 3 | 2.2 | +0.8 | 1 | 0.8 | +0.2 | +2 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 3 | 2.3 | +0.7 |
| 8 | Real Madrid | 1 | 2 | 3.6 | -1.6 | 1 | 2.0 | -1.0 | +1 | 1.6 | -0.6 | 3 | 2.1 | +0.9 |
| 9 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 | 2 | 1.4 | +0.6 | +1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | 3 | 2.1 | +0.9 |
| 10 | AEK Athens | 1 | 1 | 1.8 | -0.8 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9 | +1 | 0.9 | +0.1 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 11 | Liverpool | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | +0.5 | 1 | 0.6 | +0.4 | +1 | 0.9 | +0.1 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 12 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 1 | 0.4 | +0.6 | +0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 1 | 2.0 | -1.0 |
| 13 | Como | 1 | 4 | 2.0 | +2.0 | 1 | 1.2 | -0.2 | +3 | 0.9 | +2.1 | 3 | 1.9 | +1.1 |
| 14 | Real Betis | 1 | 3 | 1.8 | +1.2 | 2 | 1.1 | +0.9 | +1 | 0.8 | +0.2 | 3 | 1.9 | +1.1 |
| 15 | Aston Villa | 1 | 3 | 2.4 | +0.6 | 2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | +1 | 0.8 | +0.2 | 3 | 1.8 | +1.2 |
| 16 | Slavia Praha | 1 | 2 | 1.8 | +0.2 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 | -1 | 0.3 | -1.3 | 0 | 1.6 | -1.6 |
| 17 | Sporting CP | 1 | 3 | 1.4 | +1.6 | 1 | 1.2 | -0.2 | +2 | 0.2 | +1.8 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| 18 | PSV | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | +0.5 | 1 | 0.5 | +0.5 | +0 | 0.0 | +0.0 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3 |
| 19 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | +0.5 | 1 | 0.5 | +0.5 | +0 | 0.0 | +0.0 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3 |
| 20 | Galatasaray | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 3 | 1.4 | +1.6 | -2 | -0.2 | -1.8 | 0 | 1.2 | -1.2 |
| 21 | Lens | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | +1.5 | 2 | 1.8 | +0.2 | +1 | -0.3 | +1.3 | 3 | 1.2 | +1.8 |
| 22 | Club Brugge | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | +0.4 | 3 | 2.4 | +0.6 | -1 | -0.8 | -0.2 | 0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 23 | LOSC Lille | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | +0.9 | 3 | 1.8 | +1.2 | -1 | -0.8 | -0.2 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9 |
| 24 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 4 | 2.0 | +2.0 | -3 | -0.9 | -2.1 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9 |
| 25 | LASK Linz | 1 | 0 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 1 | 1.8 | -0.8 | -1 | -0.9 | -0.1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 |
| 26 | Roma | 1 | 1 | 0.4 | +0.6 | 1 | 1.2 | -0.2 | +0 | -0.8 | +0.8 | 1 | 0.7 | +0.3 |
| 27 | Atlético Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +0.4 | 2 | 1.5 | +0.5 | -1 | -0.9 | -0.1 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7 |
| 28 | Villarreal | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | +0.6 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 | -1 | -1.3 | +0.3 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7 |
| 29 | Inter | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | -1.0 | 2 | 3.6 | -1.6 | -1 | -1.6 | +0.6 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7 |
| 30 | Viking | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +0.2 | 3 | 2.2 | +0.8 | -2 | -1.4 | -0.6 | 0 | 0.5 | -0.5 |
| 31 | Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +0.4 | 5 | 2.5 | +2.5 | -4 | -1.9 | -2.1 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4 |
| 32 | Porto | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 2 | 2.3 | -0.3 | -2 | -1.9 | -0.1 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 |
| 33 | Bodø / Glimt | 1 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 5 | 2.4 | +2.6 | -5 | -2.0 | -3.0 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 |
| 34 | Sabah | 1 | 0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 | -4 | -2.5 | -1.5 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 |
| 35 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +0.1 | 6 | 4.1 | +1.9 | -5 | -3.2 | -1.8 | 0 | 0.2 | -0.2 |
| 36 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 1 | 3.6 | -2.6 | -1 | -3.3 | +2.3 | 0 | 0.1 | -0.1 |