Campeonato Brasileiro xG Table 2025

Who the Campeonato Brasileiro xG table says is due a correction

Sport Recife have the biggest shortfall in the Campeonato Brasileiro: 17 points from chances worth 38.0 xPts, a gap of 21.0. At the other end, Palmeiras have taken 76 points from an xPts figure of 63.9, 12.1 more than the underlying numbers justify.

How these xG numbers are calculated

Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.

Campeonato Brasileiro 2025 xG table, Home

#	Team	Played	Goals	xG	Goals minus xG	Goals against	xGA	Goals against minus xGA	Goal difference	xGD	Goal difference minus xGD	Points	xPts	Points minus xPts
1	Flamengo	19	46	36.9	+9.1	8	12.6	-4.6	+38	24.3	+13.7	47	41.2	+5.8
2	Internacional	19	27	36.5	-9.5	20	16.7	+3.3	+7	19.8	-12.8	30	37.7	-7.7
3	Palmeiras	19	35	32.3	+2.7	11	14.6	-3.6	+24	17.8	+6.2	41	37.2	+3.8
4	Bahia	19	33	33.9	-0.9	14	16.9	-2.9	+19	17.0	+2.0	45	36.1	+8.9
5	Fluminense	19	31	28.3	+2.7	11	14.1	-3.1	+20	14.2	+5.8	46	35.4	+10.6
6	Cruzeiro	19	35	29.3	+5.7	14	15.7	-1.7	+21	13.6	+7.4	43	34.7	+8.3
7	Botafogo	19	39	32.0	+7.0	24	18.6	+5.4	+15	13.5	+1.5	38	34.7	+3.3
8	Corinthians	19	27	31.8	-4.8	18	18.6	-0.6	+9	13.1	-4.1	30	34.1	-4.1
9	Mirassol	19	42	33.3	+8.7	17	21.3	-4.3	+25	12.0	+13.0	43	33.4	+9.6
10	Atlético Mineiro	19	30	28.5	+1.5	18	18.2	-0.2	+12	10.3	+1.7	35	32.8	+2.2
11	Santos	19	24	29.7	-5.7	19	21.0	-2.0	+5	8.6	-3.6	30	32.2	-2.2
12	São Paulo	19	27	28.1	-1.1	17	18.9	-1.9	+10	9.1	+0.9	34	31.8	+2.2
13	Bragantino	19	27	28.6	-1.6	24	20.3	+3.7	+3	8.2	-5.2	31	30.4	+0.6
14	Grêmio	19	24	27.9	-3.9	17	22.3	-5.3	+7	5.6	+1.4	32	29.1	+2.9
15	Ceará	19	20	20.7	-0.7	18	15.7	+2.3	+2	5.0	-3.0	26	29.0	-3.0
16	Vitória	19	21	25.9	-4.9	15	20.9	-5.9	+6	5.0	+1.0	33	28.9	+4.1
17	Vasco da Gama	19	31	27.7	+3.3	26	25.1	+0.9	+5	2.5	+2.5	28	27.8	+0.2
18	Fortaleza	19	23	25.9	-2.9	23	22.6	+0.4	+0	3.3	-3.3	27	27.4	-0.4
19	Juventude	19	21	20.2	+0.8	26	26.9	-0.9	-5	-6.7	+1.7	23	21.6	+1.4
20	Sport Recife	19	17	19.1	-2.1	39	28.6	+10.4	-22	-9.5	-12.5	10	20.2	-10.2

Campeonato Brasileiro 2025 xG table, Away

#	Team	Played	Goals	xG	Goals minus xG	Goals against	xGA	Goals against minus xGA	Goal difference	xGD	Goal difference minus xGD	Points	xPts	Points minus xPts
1	Flamengo	19	32	27.3	+4.7	19	21.2	-2.2	+13	6.1	+6.9	32	30.0	+2.0
2	Palmeiras	19	31	24.7	+6.3	22	24.0	-2.0	+9	0.7	+8.3	35	26.6	+8.4
3	Mirassol	19	21	26.9	-5.9	22	29.4	-7.4	-1	-2.4	+1.4	24	25.0	-1.0
4	Botafogo	19	19	21.2	-2.2	14	23.3	-9.3	+5	-2.1	+7.1	25	23.6	+1.4
5	Cruzeiro	19	20	18.8	+1.2	17	23.5	-6.5	+3	-4.7	+7.7	27	23.3	+3.7
6	Fluminense	19	19	15.2	+3.8	28	20.4	+7.6	-9	-5.2	-3.8	18	21.6	-3.6
7	Santos	19	21	20.6	+0.4	31	28.3	+2.7	-10	-7.8	-2.2	17	21.4	-4.4
8	Ceará	19	14	17.5	-3.5	22	25.3	-3.3	-8	-7.8	-0.2	17	20.7	-3.7
9	Atlético Mineiro	19	13	18.1	-5.1	26	25.2	+0.8	-13	-7.1	-5.9	13	20.6	-7.6
10	Internacional	19	17	18.2	-1.2	37	28.2	+8.8	-20	-10.0	-10.0	14	20.5	-6.5
11	Bahia	19	17	21.1	-4.1	32	32.5	-0.5	-15	-11.4	-3.6	15	19.3	-4.3
12	São Paulo	19	16	17.4	-1.4	30	30.0	+0.0	-14	-12.6	-1.4	17	19.2	-2.2
13	Vasco da Gama	19	24	19.2	+4.8	34	31.1	+2.9	-10	-12.0	+2.0	17	19.0	-2.0
14	Bragantino	19	18	18.0	+0.0	33	31.7	+1.3	-15	-13.7	-1.3	17	18.3	-1.3
15	Fortaleza	19	20	21.1	-1.1	35	34.6	+0.4	-15	-13.5	-1.5	16	17.8	-1.8
16	Sport Recife	19	11	20.0	-9.0	36	35.6	+0.4	-25	-15.7	-9.3	7	17.8	-10.8
17	Grêmio	19	23	19.4	+3.6	33	36.6	-3.6	-10	-17.2	+7.2	17	17.5	-0.5
18	Corinthians	19	15	15.3	-0.3	29	28.5	+0.5	-14	-13.3	-0.7	17	16.8	+0.2
19	Vitória	19	14	15.2	-1.2	37	31.9	+5.1	-23	-16.7	-6.3	12	16.3	-4.3
20	Juventude	19	14	14.5	-0.5	43	35.0	+8.0	-29	-20.5	-8.5	12	14.4	-2.4

Campeonato Brasileiro 2025 xG table, Last 5

#	Team	Played	Goals	xG	Goals minus xG	Goals against	xGA	Goals against minus xGA	Goal difference	xGD	Goal difference minus xGD	Points	xPts	Points minus xPts
1	Bahia	5	6	11.8	-5.8	6	5.0	+1.0	+0	6.9	-6.9	7	10.5	-3.5
2	Flamengo	5	9	8.9	+0.1	6	5.1	+0.9	+3	3.8	-0.8	8	9.6	-1.6
3	Fluminense	5	12	7.5	+4.5	2	3.9	-1.9	+10	3.6	+6.4	13	8.8	+4.2
4	Santos	5	11	7.9	+3.1	2	5.4	-3.4	+9	2.5	+6.5	11	8.8	+2.2
5	Internacional	5	7	7.2	-0.2	11	4.4	+6.6	-4	2.8	-6.8	7	8.5	-1.5
6	Grêmio	5	12	8.1	+3.9	7	6.2	+0.8	+5	1.9	+3.1	9	8.2	+0.8
7	Botafogo	5	14	9.4	+4.6	10	7.4	+2.6	+4	2.0	+2.0	11	8.1	+2.9
8	Corinthians	5	7	7.3	-0.3	9	5.6	+3.4	-2	1.7	-3.7	5	8.1	-3.1
9	Bragantino	5	7	7.4	-0.4	7	5.9	+1.1	+0	1.4	-1.4	6	7.9	-1.9
10	Cruzeiro	5	9	5.9	+3.1	9	6.7	+2.3	+0	-0.9	+0.9	6	6.6	-0.6
11	Palmeiras	5	8	7.2	+0.8	4	8.4	-4.4	+4	-1.2	+5.2	8	6.5	+1.5
12	Vitória	5	6	6.3	-0.3	5	7.1	-2.1	+1	-0.8	+1.8	10	6.2	+3.8
13	Mirassol	5	9	7.4	+1.6	6	8.2	-2.2	+3	-0.9	+3.9	8	6.2	+1.8
14	Ceará	5	3	4.8	-1.8	10	5.5	+4.5	-7	-0.7	-6.3	1	6.1	-5.1
15	Atlético Mineiro	5	6	6.0	+0.0	7	7.8	-0.8	-1	-1.8	+0.8	4	6.1	-2.1
16	Juventude	5	6	6.5	-0.5	10	9.5	+0.5	-4	-3.1	-0.9	3	5.0	-2.0
17	Fortaleza	5	9	6.1	+2.9	7	9.9	-2.9	+2	-3.7	+5.7	12	4.9	+7.1
18	São Paulo	5	6	4.2	+1.8	11	8.6	+2.4	-5	-4.4	-0.6	6	4.7	+1.3
19	Vasco da Gama	5	5	3.6	+1.4	11	7.4	+3.6	-6	-3.8	-2.2	3	4.3	-1.3
20	Sport Recife	5	3	4.0	-1.0	15	9.4	+5.6	-12	-5.4	-6.6	0	3.9	-3.9

Campeonato Brasileiro xG Table Questions

Which Campeonato Brasileiro team is overperforming their xG the most in 2025?

Flamengo overperformed their xG by more than any other side in Campeonato Brasileiro in 2025, with 78 goals from chances worth 64.2 xG, a gap of 13.8. Palmeiras were next on 8.9.

Which Campeonato Brasileiro team is underperforming their xG the most in 2025?

Sport Recife underperformed their xG by more than any other side in Campeonato Brasileiro in 2025, with 28 goals from chances worth 39.1 xG, a shortfall of 11.1. Internacional were next on 10.7.

Which Campeonato Brasileiro team has been the luckiest on expected points in 2025?

Palmeiras were the luckiest side in Campeonato Brasileiro in 2025, with 76 points from performances worth 63.9 xPts, 12.1 more than their chances deserved. Cruzeiro were next on 11.9.

Which Campeonato Brasileiro team has been the unluckiest on expected points in 2025?

Sport Recife were the unluckiest side in Campeonato Brasileiro in 2025, with 17 points from performances worth 38.0 xPts, 21.0 short of what they deserved. Internacional were next on 14.2.

Who would be top of Campeonato Brasileiro on xG in 2025?

Flamengo were also top of Campeonato Brasileiro in 2025 on expected points, with 71.2 xPts from 64.2 xG created and 33.8 conceded across 38 matches. Palmeiras were next on 63.9.

Which Campeonato Brasileiro team has the most xG in 2025?

Flamengo created the most xG in Campeonato Brasileiro in 2025, 64.2 from 38 matches, 1.7 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Mirassol were next on 60.2.

Which Campeonato Brasileiro team has the least xG in 2025?

Juventude created the least xG in Campeonato Brasileiro in 2025, 34.8 from 38 matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Ceará were next on 38.3.

Which Campeonato Brasileiro team has conceded the most xG in 2025?

Sport Recife conceded the most xG in Campeonato Brasileiro in 2025, 64.2 from 38 matches, 1.7 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Juventude were next on 62.0.

Which Campeonato Brasileiro team has conceded the least xG in 2025?

Flamengo conceded the least xG in Campeonato Brasileiro in 2025, 33.8 from 38 matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.3. Fluminense were next on 34.5.

What is the average xG per game in Campeonato Brasileiro in 2025?

Campeonato Brasileiro teams averaged 1.27 xG a game in 2025, from the 380 matches played, and scored 1.26 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.23 xG a game in 2024.

Did Campeonato Brasileiro teams create more xG at home or away in 2025?

Campeonato Brasileiro teams created more xG at home in 2025, 1.52 a game against 1.03 away, a home advantage of +0.49, against +0.34 in 2024.

Campeonato Brasileiro player expected goals

The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.

Campeonato Brasileiro Player xG Stats 2025

Campeonato Brasileiro pages

Betting

Campeonato Brasileiro 2025 xG table

#	Team	Played	Goals	xG	Goals minus xG	Goals against	xGA	Goals against minus xGA	Goal difference	xGD	Goal difference minus xGD	Points	xPts	Points minus xPts
1	Flamengo	38	78	64.2	+13.8	27	33.8	-6.8	+51	30.4	+20.6	79	71.2	+7.8
2	Palmeiras	38	66	57.1	+8.9	33	38.6	-5.6	+33	18.5	+14.5	76	63.9	+12.1
3	Mirassol	38	63	60.2	+2.8	39	50.6	-11.6	+24	9.6	+14.4	67	58.4	+8.6
4	Botafogo	38	58	53.2	+4.8	38	41.9	-3.9	+20	11.3	+8.7	63	58.3	+4.7
5	Internacional	38	44	54.7	-10.7	57	44.9	+12.1	-13	9.9	-22.9	44	58.2	-14.2
6	Cruzeiro	38	55	48.2	+6.8	31	39.2	-8.2	+24	9.0	+15.0	70	58.1	+11.9
7	Fluminense	38	50	43.6	+6.4	39	34.5	+4.5	+11	9.0	+2.0	64	57.0	+7.0
8	Bahia	38	50	54.9	-4.9	46	49.4	-3.4	+4	5.6	-1.6	60	55.4	+4.6
9	Santos	38	45	50.2	-5.2	50	49.4	+0.6	-5	0.9	-5.9	47	53.7	-6.7
10	Atlético Mineiro	38	43	46.6	-3.6	44	43.4	+0.6	-1	3.1	-4.1	48	53.3	-5.3
11	Corinthians	38	42	47.0	-5.0	47	47.2	-0.2	-5	-0.1	-4.9	47	51.0	-4.0
12	São Paulo	38	43	45.5	-2.5	47	48.9	-1.9	-4	-3.4	-0.6	51	51.0	+0.0
13	Ceará	38	34	38.3	-4.3	40	41.0	-1.0	-6	-2.8	-3.2	43	49.7	-6.7
14	Bragantino	38	45	46.6	-1.6	57	52.1	+4.9	-12	-5.5	-6.5	48	48.7	-0.7
15	Vasco da Gama	38	55	46.8	+8.2	60	56.3	+3.7	-5	-9.4	+4.4	45	46.8	-1.8
16	Grêmio	38	47	47.3	-0.3	50	58.9	-8.9	-3	-11.6	+8.6	49	46.7	+2.3
17	Fortaleza	38	43	47.0	-4.0	58	57.2	+0.8	-15	-10.3	-4.7	43	45.3	-2.3
18	Vitória	38	35	41.1	-6.1	52	52.8	-0.8	-17	-11.7	-5.3	45	45.2	-0.2
19	Sport Recife	38	28	39.1	-11.1	75	64.2	+10.8	-47	-25.2	-21.8	17	38.0	-21.0
20	Juventude	38	35	34.8	+0.2	69	62.0	+7.0	-34	-27.2	-6.8	35	36.0	-1.0