Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nigeria | 6 | 12 | 10.2 | +1.8 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 | +8 | 5.5 | +2.5 | 12 | 11.8 | +0.2 |
| 2 | Côte d'Ivoire | 5 | 15 | 10.8 | +4.2 | 0 | 2.9 | -2.9 | +15 | 7.9 | +7.1 | 15 | 10.7 | +4.3 |
| 3 | Tunisia | 5 | 13 | 9.8 | +3.2 | 0 | 4.5 | -4.5 | +13 | 5.3 | +7.7 | 15 | 10.0 | +5.0 |
| 4 | South Africa | 5 | 11 | 7.0 | +4.0 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 | +8 | 4.2 | +3.8 | 13 | 9.7 | +3.3 |
| 5 | Morocco | 4 | 10 | 8.0 | +2.0 | 1 | 1.5 | -0.5 | +9 | 6.5 | +2.5 | 12 | 9.6 | +2.4 |
| 6 | Algeria | 5 | 14 | 8.5 | +5.5 | 6 | 4.5 | +1.5 | +8 | 4.1 | +3.9 | 12 | 9.6 | +2.4 |
| 7 | Uganda | 5 | 9 | 7.3 | +1.7 | 2 | 3.6 | -1.6 | +7 | 3.7 | +3.3 | 12 | 9.5 | +2.5 |
| 8 | Mali | 5 | 12 | 7.1 | +4.9 | 5 | 3.2 | +1.8 | +7 | 3.8 | +3.2 | 10 | 9.4 | +0.6 |
| 9 | Cape Verde Islands | 5 | 6 | 7.2 | -1.2 | 0 | 3.8 | -3.8 | +6 | 3.4 | +2.6 | 13 | 9.3 | +3.7 |
| 10 | Senegal | 5 | 13 | 8.3 | +4.7 | 1 | 4.2 | -3.2 | +12 | 4.1 | +7.9 | 13 | 9.2 | +3.8 |
| 11 | Cameroon | 5 | 13 | 8.0 | +5.0 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 | +10 | 3.5 | +6.5 | 12 | 9.2 | +2.8 |
| 12 | Gabon | 5 | 10 | 7.3 | +2.7 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 | +7 | 3.5 | +3.5 | 13 | 9.1 | +3.9 |
| 13 | Burkina Faso | 5 | 10 | 8.7 | +1.3 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 | +5 | 3.6 | +1.4 | 9 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | Togo | 5 | 4 | 7.1 | -3.1 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | +0 | 2.3 | -2.3 | 6 | 8.5 | -2.5 |
| 15 | Kenya | 5 | 8 | 6.9 | +1.1 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 | +2 | 2.3 | -0.3 | 5 | 8.4 | -3.4 |
| 16 | Ghana | 5 | 12 | 6.7 | +5.3 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 | +9 | 2.1 | +6.9 | 15 | 8.3 | +6.7 |
| 17 | Egypt | 4 | 11 | 8.0 | +3.0 | 1 | 3.4 | -2.4 | +10 | 4.6 | +5.4 | 12 | 8.2 | +3.8 |
| 18 | Angola | 5 | 6 | 5.8 | +0.2 | 5 | 3.9 | +1.1 | +1 | 1.9 | -0.9 | 7 | 8.2 | -1.2 |
| 19 | Guinea | 5 | 4 | 6.0 | -2.0 | 4 | 4.3 | -0.3 | +0 | 1.7 | -1.7 | 6 | 8.2 | -2.2 |
| 20 | Namibia | 5 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 | +2 | 2.5 | -0.5 | 6 | 8.1 | -2.1 |
| 21 | Comoros | 5 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 | +0 | 2.0 | -2.0 | 9 | 8.1 | +0.9 |
| 22 | Gambia | 5 | 13 | 6.9 | +6.1 | 10 | 4.9 | +5.1 | +3 | 2.0 | +1.0 | 7 | 8.1 | -1.1 |
| 23 | Mauritania | 5 | 2 | 5.6 | -3.6 | 5 | 3.7 | +1.3 | -3 | 2.0 | -5.0 | 4 | 8.1 | -4.1 |
| 24 | Congo DR | 5 | 7 | 6.3 | +0.7 | 3 | 4.9 | -1.9 | +4 | 1.5 | +2.5 | 12 | 8.0 | +4.0 |
| 25 | Equatorial Guinea | 4 | 4 | 5.3 | -1.3 | 2 | 2.0 | +0.0 | +2 | 3.4 | -1.4 | 7 | 7.8 | -0.8 |
| 26 | Sierra Leone | 5 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | +2 | 0.9 | +1.1 | 9 | 7.5 | +1.5 |
| 27 | Guinea-Bissau | 5 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 | +1 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 6 | 7.4 | -1.4 |
| 28 | Burundi | 5 | 9 | 4.8 | +4.2 | 6 | 3.9 | +2.1 | +3 | 0.8 | +2.2 | 6 | 7.3 | -1.3 |
| 29 | Zambia | 4 | 4 | 7.5 | -3.5 | 6 | 4.9 | +1.1 | -2 | 2.6 | -4.6 | 3 | 7.2 | -4.2 |
| 30 | Botswana | 5 | 6 | 6.5 | -0.5 | 7 | 5.7 | +1.3 | -1 | 0.8 | -1.8 | 6 | 7.0 | -1.0 |
| 31 | Benin | 5 | 8 | 4.7 | +3.3 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 | +5 | 0.2 | +4.8 | 12 | 6.9 | +5.1 |
| 32 | Libya | 5 | 9 | 5.6 | +3.4 | 6 | 5.7 | +0.3 | +3 | 0.0 | +3.0 | 9 | 6.8 | +2.2 |
| 33 | Rwanda | 4 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 | 2 | 2.7 | -0.7 | +1 | 1.8 | -0.8 | 5 | 6.7 | -1.7 |
| 34 | Sudan | 5 | 3 | 5.5 | -2.5 | 2 | 6.4 | -4.4 | +1 | -0.9 | +1.9 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 |
| 35 | Malawi | 4 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | 5 | 4.3 | +0.7 | +0 | 1.2 | -1.2 | 4 | 6.3 | -2.3 |
| 36 | Madagascar | 5 | 7 | 4.5 | +2.5 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | +2 | -1.0 | +3.0 | 10 | 6.2 | +3.8 |
| 37 | Zimbabwe | 5 | 3 | 5.2 | -2.2 | 6 | 6.5 | -0.5 | -3 | -1.3 | -1.7 | 3 | 5.9 | -2.9 |
| 38 | Eswatini | 5 | 5 | 6.0 | -1.0 | 8 | 8.1 | -0.1 | -3 | -2.1 | -0.9 | 3 | 5.9 | -2.9 |
| 39 | Mozambique | 4 | 5 | 3.8 | +1.2 | 5 | 3.3 | +1.7 | +0 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 6 | 5.7 | +0.3 |
| 40 | Niger | 4 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 | 5 | 5.3 | -0.3 | +1 | -0.1 | +1.1 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 |
| 41 | Lesotho | 5 | 2 | 5.3 | -3.3 | 6 | 8.4 | -2.4 | -4 | -3.1 | -0.9 | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 |
| 42 | Liberia | 4 | 5 | 3.8 | +1.2 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 | +1 | -0.8 | +1.8 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 |
| 43 | South Sudan | 5 | 1 | 5.1 | -4.1 | 12 | 8.5 | +3.5 | -11 | -3.4 | -7.6 | 2 | 4.5 | -2.5 |
| 44 | Ethiopia | 4 | 7 | 4.9 | +2.1 | 6 | 7.2 | -1.2 | +1 | -2.2 | +3.2 | 6 | 4.2 | +1.8 |
| 45 | Djibouti | 5 | 2 | 3.4 | -1.4 | 13 | 6.4 | +6.6 | -11 | -3.1 | -7.9 | 1 | 4.2 | -3.2 |
| 46 | Mauritius | 5 | 2 | 3.8 | -1.8 | 5 | 7.4 | -2.4 | -3 | -3.6 | +0.6 | 5 | 4.2 | +0.8 |
| 47 | Somalia | 5 | 1 | 3.2 | -2.2 | 11 | 6.9 | +4.1 | -10 | -3.7 | -6.3 | 0 | 4.1 | -4.1 |
| 48 | Tanzania | 3 | 0 | 2.9 | -2.9 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 | -4 | -0.2 | -3.8 | 0 | 3.9 | -3.9 |
| 49 | Chad | 4 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 | 9 | 6.2 | +2.8 | -6 | -2.4 | -3.6 | 1 | 3.8 | -2.8 |
| 50 | Central African Republic | 5 | 2 | 3.8 | -1.8 | 11 | 9.5 | +1.5 | -9 | -5.6 | -3.4 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 |
| 51 | São Tomé and PrÃncipe | 5 | 3 | 3.7 | -0.7 | 12 | 8.8 | +3.2 | -9 | -5.1 | -3.9 | 3 | 3.5 | -0.5 |
| 52 | Congo | 2 | 1 | 1.4 | -0.4 | 7 | 3.1 | +3.9 | -6 | -1.6 | -4.4 | 1 | 1.9 | -0.9 |
| 53 | Seychelles | 5 | 1 | 2.3 | -1.3 | 26 | 11.5 | +14.5 | -25 | -9.1 | -15.9 | 0 | 1.8 | -1.8 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Côte d'Ivoire | 5 | 10 | 6.9 | +3.1 | 0 | 2.8 | -2.8 | +10 | 4.1 | +5.9 | 11 | 9.6 | +1.4 |
| 2 | Egypt | 5 | 8 | 7.3 | +0.7 | 1 | 3.6 | -2.6 | +7 | 3.7 | +3.3 | 11 | 9.5 | +1.5 |
| 3 | Cameroon | 5 | 4 | 8.3 | -4.3 | 3 | 5.1 | -2.1 | +1 | 3.2 | -2.2 | 6 | 8.9 | -2.9 |
| 4 | Ghana | 5 | 11 | 8.1 | +2.9 | 3 | 4.7 | -1.7 | +8 | 3.4 | +4.6 | 10 | 8.8 | +1.2 |
| 5 | Senegal | 5 | 9 | 7.8 | +1.2 | 2 | 5.0 | -3.0 | +7 | 2.8 | +4.2 | 11 | 8.8 | +2.2 |
| 6 | Congo DR | 6 | 9 | 6.8 | +2.2 | 3 | 5.8 | -2.8 | +6 | 1.0 | +5.0 | 13 | 8.6 | +4.4 |
| 7 | South Africa | 5 | 6 | 6.5 | -0.5 | 3 | 4.3 | -1.3 | +3 | 2.2 | +0.8 | 8 | 8.3 | -0.3 |
| 8 | Mali | 4 | 3 | 7.0 | -4.0 | 1 | 3.1 | -2.1 | +2 | 3.9 | -1.9 | 5 | 8.0 | -3.0 |
| 9 | Burkina Faso | 5 | 13 | 6.8 | +6.2 | 3 | 5.4 | -2.4 | +10 | 1.4 | +8.6 | 12 | 7.9 | +4.1 |
| 10 | Morocco | 4 | 12 | 6.6 | +5.4 | 1 | 3.2 | -2.2 | +11 | 3.4 | +7.6 | 12 | 7.7 | +4.3 |
| 11 | Tunisia | 5 | 9 | 6.5 | +2.5 | 0 | 4.8 | -4.8 | +9 | 1.7 | +7.3 | 13 | 7.7 | +5.3 |
| 12 | Gabon | 6 | 13 | 6.3 | +6.7 | 10 | 7.2 | +2.8 | +3 | -0.9 | +3.9 | 12 | 7.7 | +4.3 |
| 13 | Togo | 5 | 1 | 6.0 | -5.0 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 | -5 | 1.2 | -6.2 | 2 | 7.6 | -5.6 |
| 14 | Gambia | 5 | 14 | 7.2 | +6.8 | 8 | 5.9 | +2.1 | +6 | 1.3 | +4.7 | 6 | 7.5 | -1.5 |
| 15 | Angola | 4 | 3 | 6.9 | -3.9 | 3 | 4.0 | -1.0 | +0 | 2.9 | -2.9 | 4 | 7.4 | -3.4 |
| 16 | Algeria | 5 | 10 | 4.9 | +5.1 | 2 | 4.1 | -2.1 | +8 | 0.8 | +7.2 | 13 | 7.3 | +5.7 |
| 17 | Cape Verde Islands | 5 | 10 | 5.9 | +4.1 | 8 | 5.1 | +2.9 | +2 | 0.8 | +1.2 | 10 | 7.3 | +2.7 |
| 18 | Madagascar | 5 | 10 | 6.7 | +3.3 | 7 | 6.2 | +0.8 | +3 | 0.5 | +2.5 | 9 | 7.2 | +1.8 |
| 19 | Comoros | 5 | 5 | 4.9 | +0.1 | 6 | 4.2 | +1.8 | -1 | 0.7 | -1.7 | 6 | 7.0 | -1.0 |
| 20 | Kenya | 5 | 10 | 6.3 | +3.7 | 8 | 5.2 | +2.8 | +2 | 1.1 | +0.9 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 |
| 21 | Benin | 5 | 4 | 5.3 | -1.3 | 8 | 4.9 | +3.1 | -4 | 0.4 | -4.4 | 5 | 6.8 | -1.8 |
| 22 | Guinea | 5 | 7 | 5.7 | +1.3 | 4 | 5.8 | -1.8 | +3 | -0.1 | +3.1 | 9 | 6.8 | +2.2 |
| 23 | Nigeria | 4 | 5 | 4.9 | +0.1 | 5 | 2.9 | +2.1 | +0 | 2.1 | -2.1 | 5 | 6.7 | -1.7 |
| 24 | Guinea-Bissau | 5 | 3 | 5.6 | -2.6 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 | -3 | -1.2 | -1.8 | 4 | 6.1 | -2.1 |
| 25 | Malawi | 5 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 | 5 | 6.9 | -1.9 | -2 | -2.5 | +0.5 | 6 | 5.9 | +0.1 |
| 26 | Uganda | 4 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.2 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 | +0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 6 | 5.8 | +0.2 |
| 27 | Botswana | 5 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 | 9 | 6.2 | +2.8 | -3 | -1.4 | -1.6 | 4 | 5.8 | -1.8 |
| 28 | Namibia | 4 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 | 6 | 4.0 | +2.0 | -2 | 0.4 | -2.4 | 6 | 5.7 | +0.3 |
| 29 | Liberia | 5 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 | 7 | 6.8 | +0.2 | -2 | -1.7 | -0.3 | 6 | 5.7 | +0.3 |
| 30 | Mauritania | 5 | 2 | 5.6 | -3.6 | 8 | 7.4 | +0.6 | -6 | -1.8 | -4.2 | 3 | 5.6 | -2.6 |
| 31 | Rwanda | 5 | 2 | 4.4 | -2.4 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 | -3 | -1.8 | -1.2 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 |
| 32 | Mozambique | 5 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 | 11 | 6.9 | +4.1 | -5 | -2.3 | -2.7 | 9 | 5.1 | +3.9 |
| 33 | Zimbabwe | 5 | 2 | 4.9 | -2.9 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 | -4 | -2.7 | -1.3 | 2 | 5.1 | -3.1 |
| 34 | Ethiopia | 5 | 2 | 3.8 | -1.8 | 8 | 7.1 | +0.9 | -6 | -3.3 | -2.7 | 2 | 4.9 | -2.9 |
| 35 | Sudan | 5 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | 4 | 7.0 | -3.0 | +1 | -2.6 | +3.6 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 |
| 36 | Central African Republic | 5 | 9 | 4.5 | +4.5 | 13 | 7.3 | +5.7 | -4 | -2.8 | -1.2 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 |
| 37 | Eswatini | 5 | 1 | 4.4 | -3.4 | 11 | 7.3 | +3.7 | -10 | -2.9 | -7.1 | 0 | 4.7 | -4.7 |
| 38 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 | +0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 |
| 39 | Libya | 5 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 | 4 | 6.6 | -2.6 | -1 | -3.0 | +2.0 | 7 | 4.6 | +2.4 |
| 40 | Burundi | 5 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 | -3 | -3.4 | +0.4 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 |
| 41 | Djibouti | 5 | 3 | 5.1 | -2.1 | 20 | 9.5 | +10.5 | -17 | -4.4 | -12.6 | 0 | 4.4 | -4.4 |
| 42 | Mauritius | 5 | 5 | 3.2 | +1.8 | 12 | 7.2 | +4.8 | -7 | -4.0 | -3.0 | 1 | 4.1 | -3.1 |
| 43 | Somalia | 5 | 2 | 4.0 | -2.0 | 9 | 8.3 | +0.7 | -7 | -4.4 | -2.6 | 1 | 4.0 | -3.0 |
| 44 | Chad | 5 | 2 | 3.2 | -1.2 | 13 | 7.7 | +5.3 | -11 | -4.6 | -6.4 | 0 | 3.9 | -3.9 |
| 45 | São Tomé and PrÃncipe | 5 | 2 | 4.1 | -2.1 | 14 | 9.2 | +4.8 | -12 | -5.1 | -6.9 | 0 | 3.8 | -3.8 |
| 46 | Tanzania | 4 | 3 | 2.7 | +0.3 | 3 | 5.1 | -2.1 | +0 | -2.5 | +2.5 | 7 | 3.6 | +3.4 |
| 47 | Sierra Leone | 3 | 5 | 2.1 | +2.9 | 4 | 3.4 | +0.6 | +1 | -1.3 | +2.3 | 5 | 3.2 | +1.8 |
| 48 | Zambia | 3 | 3 | 3.0 | +0.0 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 | -1 | -1.6 | +0.6 | 3 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 49 | South Sudan | 5 | 2 | 2.8 | -0.8 | 7 | 9.0 | -2.0 | -5 | -6.3 | +1.3 | 3 | 3.0 | +0.0 |
| 50 | Lesotho | 5 | 4 | 2.6 | +1.4 | 8 | 9.2 | -1.2 | -4 | -6.6 | +2.6 | 5 | 2.6 | +2.4 |
| 51 | Congo | 3 | 3 | 3.5 | -0.5 | 8 | 6.2 | +1.8 | -5 | -2.7 | -2.3 | 0 | 2.5 | -2.5 |
| 52 | Niger | 3 | 2 | 2.2 | -0.2 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 | -3 | -3.7 | +0.7 | 6 | 2.1 | +3.9 |
| 53 | Seychelles | 5 | 1 | 1.9 | -0.9 | 27 | 12.3 | +14.7 | -26 | -10.4 | -15.6 | 0 | 1.8 | -1.8 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morocco | 5 | 12 | 9.1 | +2.9 | 1 | 3.0 | -2.0 | +11 | 6.1 | +4.9 | 15 | 10.6 | +4.4 |
| 2 | Côte d'Ivoire | 5 | 12 | 8.0 | +4.0 | 0 | 2.8 | -2.8 | +12 | 5.2 | +6.8 | 13 | 10.4 | +2.6 |
| 3 | Egypt | 5 | 8 | 8.2 | -0.2 | 0 | 3.2 | -3.2 | +8 | 5.0 | +3.0 | 13 | 10.2 | +2.8 |
| 4 | Angola | 5 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 | 7 | 2.8 | +4.2 | +0 | 3.9 | -3.9 | 5 | 9.4 | -4.4 |
| 5 | South Africa | 5 | 9 | 6.6 | +2.4 | 1 | 3.0 | -2.0 | +8 | 3.6 | +4.4 | 11 | 9.4 | +1.6 |
| 6 | Tunisia | 5 | 15 | 9.0 | +6.0 | 0 | 4.5 | -4.5 | +15 | 4.5 | +10.5 | 15 | 9.3 | +5.7 |
| 7 | Nigeria | 5 | 12 | 7.2 | +4.8 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 | +9 | 3.6 | +5.4 | 13 | 9.2 | +3.8 |
| 8 | Cameroon | 5 | 8 | 7.4 | +0.6 | 3 | 4.2 | -1.2 | +5 | 3.2 | +1.8 | 9 | 9.1 | -0.1 |
| 9 | Senegal | 5 | 16 | 7.1 | +8.9 | 2 | 4.0 | -2.0 | +14 | 3.1 | +10.9 | 15 | 9.0 | +6.0 |
| 10 | Mali | 5 | 10 | 6.5 | +3.5 | 2 | 3.3 | -1.3 | +8 | 3.2 | +4.8 | 10 | 8.9 | +1.1 |
| 11 | Algeria | 5 | 13 | 6.3 | +6.7 | 3 | 3.5 | -0.5 | +10 | 2.9 | +7.1 | 13 | 8.9 | +4.1 |
| 12 | Uganda | 5 | 9 | 6.8 | +2.2 | 2 | 4.1 | -2.1 | +7 | 2.7 | +4.3 | 12 | 8.9 | +3.1 |
| 13 | Equatorial Guinea | 5 | 7 | 6.3 | +0.7 | 5 | 3.6 | +1.4 | +2 | 2.7 | -0.7 | 8 | 8.7 | -0.7 |
| 14 | Burkina Faso | 5 | 12 | 6.9 | +5.1 | 2 | 4.4 | -2.4 | +10 | 2.5 | +7.5 | 13 | 8.4 | +4.6 |
| 15 | Gambia | 5 | 15 | 8.0 | +7.0 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 | +9 | 2.4 | +6.6 | 9 | 8.4 | +0.6 |
| 16 | Ghana | 5 | 11 | 6.7 | +4.3 | 1 | 4.0 | -3.0 | +10 | 2.7 | +7.3 | 13 | 8.2 | +4.8 |
| 17 | Cape Verde Islands | 5 | 11 | 6.0 | +5.0 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 | +7 | 2.1 | +4.9 | 13 | 8.2 | +4.8 |
| 18 | Guinea-Bissau | 5 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 | 5 | 3.7 | +1.3 | -1 | 1.9 | -2.9 | 4 | 8.2 | -4.2 |
| 19 | Namibia | 5 | 6 | 6.6 | -0.6 | 9 | 4.3 | +4.7 | -3 | 2.3 | -5.3 | 4 | 8.0 | -4.0 |
| 20 | Congo DR | 5 | 9 | 6.3 | +2.7 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | +5 | 1.5 | +3.5 | 12 | 7.9 | +4.1 |
| 21 | Gabon | 5 | 11 | 5.8 | +5.2 | 7 | 4.6 | +2.4 | +4 | 1.3 | +2.7 | 10 | 7.9 | +2.1 |
| 22 | Zambia | 5 | 2 | 6.7 | -4.7 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 | -4 | 1.2 | -5.2 | 3 | 7.6 | -4.6 |
| 23 | Malawi | 5 | 4 | 5.7 | -1.7 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 | -3 | 0.1 | -3.1 | 4 | 7.5 | -3.5 |
| 24 | Togo | 5 | 1 | 5.0 | -4.0 | 5 | 4.1 | +0.9 | -4 | 0.9 | -4.9 | 4 | 7.4 | -3.4 |
| 25 | Comoros | 5 | 4 | 5.4 | -1.4 | 6 | 4.2 | +1.8 | -2 | 1.2 | -3.2 | 6 | 7.2 | -1.2 |
| 26 | Sierra Leone | 5 | 8 | 4.7 | +3.3 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 | +4 | 0.6 | +3.4 | 10 | 7.2 | +2.8 |
| 27 | Kenya | 5 | 8 | 5.3 | +2.7 | 8 | 4.8 | +3.2 | +0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 6 | 7.1 | -1.1 |
| 28 | Guinea | 5 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | +3 | 0.5 | +2.5 | 8 | 7.1 | +0.9 |
| 29 | Mauritania | 5 | 2 | 5.1 | -3.1 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 | -4 | 0.3 | -4.3 | 5 | 7.0 | -2.0 |
| 30 | Rwanda | 5 | 2 | 4.9 | -2.9 | 6 | 4.7 | +1.3 | -4 | 0.2 | -4.2 | 4 | 6.9 | -2.9 |
| 31 | Madagascar | 5 | 8 | 4.3 | +3.7 | 9 | 4.4 | +4.6 | -1 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 9 | 6.7 | +2.3 |
| 32 | Benin | 5 | 6 | 4.0 | +2.0 | 6 | 4.2 | +1.8 | +0 | -0.1 | +0.1 | 9 | 6.5 | +2.5 |
| 33 | Botswana | 5 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | 8 | 5.9 | +2.1 | -3 | -0.2 | -2.8 | 4 | 6.5 | -2.5 |
| 34 | Libya | 5 | 7 | 4.6 | +2.4 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 | +1 | -0.6 | +1.6 | 8 | 6.3 | +1.7 |
| 35 | Sudan | 5 | 1 | 4.2 | -3.2 | 5 | 5.2 | -0.2 | -4 | -1.1 | -2.9 | 2 | 5.9 | -3.9 |
| 36 | Mozambique | 5 | 5 | 3.4 | +1.6 | 11 | 4.5 | +6.5 | -6 | -1.1 | -4.9 | 6 | 5.8 | +0.2 |
| 37 | Tanzania | 5 | 2 | 4.2 | -2.2 | 5 | 6.0 | -1.0 | -3 | -1.8 | -1.2 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 |
| 38 | Burundi | 5 | 5 | 3.1 | +1.9 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 | -1 | -2.0 | +1.0 | 3 | 5.4 | -2.4 |
| 39 | Liberia | 5 | 8 | 3.8 | +4.2 | 8 | 6.6 | +1.4 | +0 | -2.8 | +2.8 | 8 | 4.8 | +3.2 |
| 40 | Zimbabwe | 5 | 1 | 4.6 | -3.6 | 4 | 8.0 | -4.0 | -3 | -3.3 | +0.3 | 2 | 4.7 | -2.7 |
| 41 | Central African Republic | 5 | 3 | 4.0 | -1.0 | 11 | 8.3 | +2.7 | -8 | -4.3 | -3.7 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 |
| 42 | Niger | 5 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 | 8 | 9.0 | -1.0 | -2 | -4.4 | +2.4 | 9 | 4.5 | +4.5 |
| 43 | Ethiopia | 5 | 8 | 4.6 | +3.4 | 8 | 8.6 | -0.6 | +0 | -4.0 | +4.0 | 6 | 4.4 | +1.6 |
| 44 | Congo | 5 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 | 15 | 9.3 | +5.7 | -11 | -4.4 | -6.6 | 1 | 4.3 | -3.3 |
| 45 | Mauritius | 5 | 4 | 2.7 | +1.3 | 10 | 6.0 | +4.0 | -6 | -3.3 | -2.7 | 2 | 4.2 | -2.2 |
| 46 | Chad | 5 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 | 13 | 7.9 | +5.1 | -9 | -4.1 | -4.9 | 1 | 4.1 | -3.1 |
| 47 | Lesotho | 5 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 | 10 | 8.3 | +1.7 | -7 | -4.4 | -2.6 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 |
| 48 | Eswatini | 5 | 5 | 3.0 | +2.0 | 13 | 7.7 | +5.3 | -8 | -4.7 | -3.3 | 2 | 3.7 | -1.7 |
| 49 | South Sudan | 5 | 2 | 3.1 | -1.1 | 10 | 7.8 | +2.2 | -8 | -4.6 | -3.4 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 |
| 50 | São Tomé and PrÃncipe | 5 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 | 14 | 9.5 | +4.5 | -10 | -5.6 | -4.4 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 |
| 51 | Somalia | 5 | 0 | 3.2 | -3.2 | 11 | 8.0 | +3.0 | -11 | -4.9 | -6.1 | 0 | 3.5 | -3.5 |
| 52 | Djibouti | 5 | 2 | 2.8 | -0.8 | 19 | 7.2 | +11.8 | -17 | -4.4 | -12.6 | 0 | 3.4 | -3.4 |
| 53 | Seychelles | 5 | 0 | 1.5 | -1.5 | 28 | 9.2 | +18.8 | -28 | -7.7 | -20.3 | 0 | 1.8 | -1.8 |
The Gambia overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the CAF World Cup Qualifiers in 2026, with 27 goals from chances worth 14.1 xG, a gap of 12.9. Algeria were next on 10.6.
Togo underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the CAF World Cup Qualifiers in 2026, with 5 goals from chances worth 13.1 xG, a shortfall of 8.1. Mauritania were next on 7.3.
Tunisia were the luckiest side in the CAF World Cup Qualifiers in 2026, with 28 points from performances worth 17.6 xPts, 10.4 more than their chances deserved. The Congo DR were next on 8.3.
Togo were the unluckiest side in the CAF World Cup Qualifiers in 2026, with 8 points from performances worth 16.1 xPts, 8.1 short of what they deserved. Eswatini and Djibouti were next on 7.6.
Côte d'Ivoire would be top of the CAF World Cup Qualifiers in 2026 on expected points, with 20.2 xPts from 17.7 xG created and 5.7 conceded across ten matches. Nigeria were next on 18.6.
Côte d'Ivoire created the most xG in the CAF World Cup Qualifiers in 2026, 17.7 from ten matches, 1.8 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Cameroon and Tunisia were next on 16.3.
The Seychelles created the least xG in the CAF World Cup Qualifiers in 2026, 4.2 from ten matches, 0.4 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Congo were next on 4.9.
The Seychelles conceded the most xG in the CAF World Cup Qualifiers in 2026, 23.8 from ten matches, 2.4 a game against a competition average of 1.2. São Tomé and PrÃncipe were next on 18.0.
Morocco conceded the least xG in the CAF World Cup Qualifiers in 2026, 4.7 from eight matches, 0.6 a game against a competition average of 1.2. Equatorial Guinea were next on 5.2.
CAF World Cup Qualifiers teams averaged 1.16 xG a game in 2026, from the 250 matches played, and scored 1.27 goals a game from it.
CAF World Cup Qualifiers teams created more xG at home in 2026, 1.26 a game against 1.07 away, a home advantage of +0.19.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Côte d'Ivoire | 10 | 25 | 17.7 | +7.3 | 0 | 5.7 | -5.7 | +25 | 12.0 | +13.0 | 26 | 20.2 | +5.8 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 10 | 17 | 15.1 | +1.9 | 9 | 7.6 | +1.4 | +8 | 7.5 | +0.5 | 17 | 18.6 | -1.6 |
| 3 | Cameroon | 10 | 17 | 16.3 | +0.7 | 6 | 9.6 | -3.6 | +11 | 6.7 | +4.3 | 18 | 18.1 | -0.1 |
| 4 | South Africa | 10 | 17 | 13.5 | +3.5 | 6 | 7.1 | -1.1 | +11 | 6.4 | +4.6 | 21 | 18.1 | +2.9 |
| 5 | Senegal | 10 | 22 | 16.1 | +5.9 | 3 | 9.2 | -6.2 | +19 | 6.9 | +12.1 | 24 | 18.0 | +6.0 |
| 6 | Egypt | 9 | 19 | 15.4 | +3.6 | 2 | 7.0 | -5.0 | +17 | 8.4 | +8.6 | 23 | 17.7 | +5.3 |
| 7 | Tunisia | 10 | 22 | 16.3 | +5.7 | 0 | 9.3 | -9.3 | +22 | 7.0 | +15.0 | 28 | 17.6 | +10.4 |
| 8 | Mali | 9 | 15 | 14.1 | +0.9 | 6 | 6.4 | -0.4 | +9 | 7.7 | +1.3 | 15 | 17.4 | -2.4 |
| 9 | Morocco | 8 | 22 | 14.6 | +7.4 | 2 | 4.7 | -2.7 | +20 | 9.9 | +10.1 | 24 | 17.3 | +6.7 |
| 10 | Ghana | 10 | 23 | 14.8 | +8.2 | 6 | 9.3 | -3.3 | +17 | 5.5 | +11.5 | 25 | 17.1 | +7.9 |
| 11 | Burkina Faso | 10 | 23 | 15.5 | +7.5 | 8 | 10.5 | -2.5 | +15 | 5.0 | +10.0 | 21 | 16.9 | +4.1 |
| 12 | Algeria | 10 | 24 | 13.4 | +10.6 | 8 | 8.6 | -0.6 | +16 | 4.9 | +11.1 | 25 | 16.9 | +8.1 |
| 13 | Gabon | 11 | 23 | 13.5 | +9.5 | 13 | 10.9 | +2.1 | +10 | 2.6 | +7.4 | 25 | 16.8 | +8.2 |
| 14 | Congo DR | 11 | 16 | 13.2 | +2.8 | 6 | 10.7 | -4.7 | +10 | 2.4 | +7.6 | 25 | 16.7 | +8.3 |
| 15 | Cape Verde Islands | 10 | 16 | 13.1 | +2.9 | 8 | 9.0 | -1.0 | +8 | 4.2 | +3.8 | 23 | 16.6 | +6.4 |
| 16 | Togo | 10 | 5 | 13.1 | -8.1 | 10 | 9.6 | +0.4 | -5 | 3.6 | -8.6 | 8 | 16.1 | -8.1 |
| 17 | Gambia | 10 | 27 | 14.1 | +12.9 | 18 | 10.9 | +7.1 | +9 | 3.3 | +5.7 | 13 | 15.6 | -2.6 |
| 18 | Angola | 9 | 9 | 12.7 | -3.7 | 8 | 7.9 | +0.1 | +1 | 4.8 | -3.8 | 11 | 15.5 | -4.5 |
| 19 | Uganda | 9 | 13 | 11.5 | +1.5 | 6 | 7.5 | -1.5 | +7 | 4.0 | +3.0 | 18 | 15.3 | +2.7 |
| 20 | Kenya | 10 | 18 | 13.2 | +4.8 | 14 | 9.8 | +4.2 | +4 | 3.4 | +0.6 | 12 | 15.3 | -3.3 |
| 21 | Comoros | 10 | 12 | 12.3 | -0.3 | 13 | 9.6 | +3.4 | -1 | 2.7 | -3.7 | 15 | 15.1 | -0.1 |
| 22 | Guinea | 10 | 11 | 11.7 | -0.7 | 8 | 10.1 | -2.1 | +3 | 1.6 | +1.4 | 15 | 15.0 | +0.0 |
| 23 | Namibia | 9 | 10 | 11.2 | -1.2 | 10 | 8.4 | +1.6 | +0 | 2.8 | -2.8 | 12 | 13.8 | -1.8 |
| 24 | Mauritania | 10 | 4 | 11.3 | -7.3 | 13 | 11.1 | +1.9 | -9 | 0.2 | -9.2 | 7 | 13.8 | -6.8 |
| 25 | Benin | 10 | 12 | 10.0 | +2.0 | 11 | 9.4 | +1.6 | +1 | 0.6 | +0.4 | 17 | 13.7 | +3.3 |
| 26 | Guinea-Bissau | 10 | 8 | 10.0 | -2.0 | 10 | 10.0 | +0.0 | -2 | 0.0 | -2.0 | 10 | 13.5 | -3.5 |
| 27 | Madagascar | 10 | 17 | 11.2 | +5.8 | 12 | 11.7 | +0.3 | +5 | -0.5 | +5.5 | 19 | 13.4 | +5.6 |
| 28 | Botswana | 10 | 12 | 11.3 | +0.7 | 16 | 11.9 | +4.1 | -4 | -0.6 | -3.4 | 10 | 12.8 | -2.8 |
| 29 | Equatorial Guinea | 7 | 8 | 9.5 | -1.5 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 | +2 | 4.2 | -2.2 | 11 | 12.4 | -1.4 |
| 30 | Rwanda | 9 | 5 | 8.9 | -3.9 | 7 | 9.0 | -2.0 | -2 | 0.0 | -2.0 | 11 | 12.2 | -1.2 |
| 31 | Malawi | 9 | 8 | 10.0 | -2.0 | 10 | 11.3 | -1.3 | -2 | -1.3 | -0.7 | 10 | 12.2 | -2.2 |
| 32 | Burundi | 10 | 13 | 8.8 | +4.2 | 13 | 11.3 | +1.7 | +0 | -2.5 | +2.5 | 10 | 11.7 | -1.7 |
| 33 | Libya | 10 | 12 | 9.2 | +2.8 | 10 | 12.3 | -2.3 | +2 | -3.0 | +5.0 | 16 | 11.5 | +4.5 |
| 34 | Sudan | 10 | 8 | 10.0 | -2.0 | 6 | 13.4 | -7.4 | +2 | -3.4 | +5.4 | 13 | 11.2 | +1.8 |
| 35 | Zimbabwe | 10 | 5 | 10.1 | -5.1 | 12 | 14.0 | -2.0 | -7 | -4.0 | -3.0 | 5 | 11.0 | -6.0 |
| 36 | Mozambique | 9 | 11 | 8.4 | +2.6 | 16 | 10.2 | +5.8 | -5 | -1.8 | -3.2 | 15 | 10.9 | +4.1 |
| 37 | Sierra Leone | 8 | 12 | 8.5 | +3.5 | 9 | 9.0 | +0.0 | +3 | -0.4 | +3.4 | 14 | 10.7 | +3.3 |
| 38 | Eswatini | 10 | 6 | 10.4 | -4.4 | 19 | 15.4 | +3.6 | -13 | -5.0 | -8.0 | 3 | 10.6 | -7.6 |
| 39 | Liberia | 9 | 10 | 8.9 | +1.1 | 11 | 11.5 | -0.5 | -1 | -2.6 | +1.6 | 12 | 10.5 | +1.5 |
| 40 | Zambia | 7 | 7 | 10.4 | -3.4 | 10 | 9.5 | +0.5 | -3 | 0.9 | -3.9 | 6 | 10.2 | -4.2 |
| 41 | Ethiopia | 9 | 9 | 8.7 | +0.3 | 14 | 14.3 | -0.3 | -5 | -5.5 | +0.5 | 8 | 9.1 | -1.1 |
| 42 | Djibouti | 10 | 5 | 8.5 | -3.5 | 33 | 15.9 | +17.1 | -28 | -7.5 | -20.5 | 1 | 8.6 | -7.6 |
| 43 | Central African Republic | 10 | 11 | 8.3 | +2.7 | 24 | 16.8 | +7.2 | -13 | -8.5 | -4.5 | 8 | 8.6 | -0.6 |
| 44 | Mauritius | 10 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 | 17 | 14.6 | +2.4 | -10 | -7.6 | -2.4 | 6 | 8.3 | -2.3 |
| 45 | Somalia | 10 | 3 | 7.2 | -4.2 | 20 | 15.2 | +4.8 | -17 | -8.1 | -8.9 | 1 | 8.1 | -7.1 |
| 46 | Chad | 9 | 5 | 6.9 | -1.9 | 22 | 13.9 | +8.1 | -17 | -7.0 | -10.0 | 1 | 7.7 | -6.7 |
| 47 | Niger | 7 | 8 | 7.4 | +0.6 | 10 | 11.1 | -1.1 | -2 | -3.8 | +1.8 | 12 | 7.6 | +4.4 |
| 48 | Lesotho | 10 | 6 | 8.0 | -2.0 | 14 | 17.7 | -3.7 | -8 | -9.7 | +1.7 | 9 | 7.6 | +1.4 |
| 49 | Tanzania | 7 | 3 | 5.6 | -2.6 | 7 | 8.3 | -1.3 | -4 | -2.7 | -1.3 | 7 | 7.5 | -0.5 |
| 50 | South Sudan | 10 | 3 | 7.9 | -4.9 | 19 | 17.6 | +1.4 | -16 | -9.7 | -6.3 | 5 | 7.5 | -2.5 |
| 51 | São Tomé and PrÃncipe | 10 | 5 | 7.8 | -2.8 | 26 | 18.0 | +8.0 | -21 | -10.2 | -10.8 | 3 | 7.4 | -4.4 |
| 52 | Congo | 5 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 | 15 | 9.3 | +5.7 | -11 | -4.4 | -6.6 | 1 | 4.3 | -3.3 |
| 53 | Seychelles | 10 | 2 | 4.2 | -2.2 | 53 | 23.8 | +29.2 | -51 | -19.6 | -31.4 | 0 | 3.6 | -3.6 |