Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Bayern München | 2 | 12 | 5.6 | +6.4 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | +11 | 4.3 | +6.7 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 |
| 2 | SC Freiburg | 2 | 9 | 5.0 | +4.0 | 1 | 1.0 | +0.0 | +8 | 4.0 | +4.0 | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 2 | 8 | 5.9 | +2.1 | 0 | 1.9 | -1.9 | +8 | 4.0 | +4.0 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 |
| 4 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 | 0 | 1.3 | -1.3 | +6 | 3.9 | +2.1 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 |
| 5 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 5 | 3.4 | +1.6 | 0 | 1.3 | -1.3 | +5 | 2.1 | +2.9 | 6 | 4.2 | +1.8 |
| 6 | FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 1 | 3.9 | -2.9 | 3 | 2.9 | +0.1 | -2 | 1.0 | -3.0 | 1 | 3.4 | -2.4 |
| 7 | FC Köln | 2 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 | 3 | 3.1 | -0.1 | +1 | 0.9 | +0.1 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 |
| 8 | VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | 2 | 3.7 | -1.7 | +2 | 1.2 | +0.8 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 |
| 9 | FC Union Berlin | 2 | 4 | 4.3 | -0.3 | 6 | 3.6 | +2.4 | -2 | 0.7 | -2.7 | 1 | 3.2 | -2.2 |
| 10 | Werder Bremen | 2 | 6 | 3.1 | +2.9 | 3 | 2.4 | +0.6 | +3 | 0.7 | +2.3 | 6 | 3.1 | +2.9 |
| 11 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 6 | 5.9 | +0.1 | 8 | 5.5 | +2.5 | -2 | 0.4 | -2.4 | 0 | 3.0 | -3.0 |
| 12 | TSG Hoffenheim | 2 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 | +0 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 3 | 2.9 | +0.1 |
| 13 | FC Augsburg | 2 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 | 2 | 4.5 | -2.5 | +3 | 0.2 | +2.8 | 4 | 2.8 | +1.2 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 | 6 | 4.5 | +1.5 | -3 | 0.0 | -3.0 | 1 | 2.8 | -1.8 |
| 15 | Paderborn | 2 | 3 | 1.9 | +1.1 | 2 | 3.1 | -1.1 | +1 | -1.2 | +2.2 | 3 | 1.9 | +1.1 |
| 16 | Schalke 04 | 2 | 0 | 1.6 | -1.6 | 0 | 3.2 | -3.2 | +0 | -1.5 | +1.5 | 2 | 1.8 | +0.2 |
| 17 | Elversberg | 2 | 4 | 2.3 | +1.7 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 | +0 | -2.1 | +2.1 | 3 | 1.6 | +1.4 |
| 18 | Hamburger SV | 2 | 2 | 1.7 | +0.3 | 6 | 4.2 | +1.8 | -4 | -2.5 | -1.5 | 3 | 1.4 | +1.6 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Bayern München | 2 | 2 | 4.4 | -2.4 | 1 | 1.4 | -0.4 | +1 | 3.0 | -2.0 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 |
| 2 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | 5 | 2.2 | +2.8 | -1 | 2.6 | -3.6 | 1 | 4.2 | -3.2 |
| 3 | FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 9 | 5.3 | +3.7 | 3 | 3.4 | -0.4 | +6 | 1.9 | +4.1 | 6 | 4.0 | +2.0 |
| 4 | SC Freiburg | 2 | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 | 2 | 3.0 | -1.0 | +1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 |
| 5 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 | 2 | 2.5 | -0.5 | +2 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 6 | 3.4 | +2.6 |
| 6 | TSG Hoffenheim | 2 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 | 6 | 3.0 | +3.0 | -3 | 0.6 | -3.6 | 0 | 3.2 | -3.2 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig | 2 | 1 | 2.4 | -1.4 | 5 | 2.5 | +2.5 | -4 | -0.1 | -3.9 | 0 | 2.7 | -2.7 |
| 8 | Elversberg | 2 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 | 3 | 4.0 | -1.0 | +1 | -0.1 | +1.1 | 4 | 2.7 | +1.3 |
| 9 | FC Köln | 2 | 2 | 3.7 | -1.7 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 | -4 | -1.5 | -2.5 | 0 | 2.2 | -2.2 |
| 10 | Schalke 04 | 2 | 3 | 4.0 | -1.0 | 4 | 6.0 | -2.0 | -1 | -2.0 | +1.0 | 3 | 2.0 | +1.0 |
| 11 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 6 | 3.1 | +2.9 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 | +2 | -1.5 | +3.5 | 4 | 1.9 | +2.1 |
| 12 | Paderborn | 2 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4 | 3 | 3.1 | -0.1 | -3 | -1.6 | -1.4 | 1 | 1.6 | -0.6 |
| 13 | FC Augsburg | 2 | 6 | 2.6 | +3.4 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | +2 | -2.2 | +4.2 | 3 | 1.6 | +1.4 |
| 14 | VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 2 | 2.7 | -0.7 | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 | -5 | -2.3 | -2.7 | 0 | 1.6 | -1.6 |
| 15 | Werder Bremen | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | +0.0 | 5 | 4.0 | +1.0 | -3 | -2.0 | -1.0 | 1 | 1.5 | -0.5 |
| 16 | Hamburger SV | 2 | 0 | 1.7 | -1.7 | 7 | 3.7 | +3.3 | -7 | -2.1 | -4.9 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4 |
| 17 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 0 | 1.4 | -1.4 | 8 | 6.9 | +1.1 | -8 | -5.5 | -2.5 | 0 | 0.4 | -0.4 |
| 18 | FC Union Berlin | 2 | 0 | 0.7 | -0.7 | 11 | 6.3 | +4.7 | -11 | -5.6 | -5.4 | 0 | 0.3 | -0.3 |
FC Bayern München are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Bundesliga in 2026/2027, with 14 goals from chances worth 10.0 xG, a gap of 4.0. FC Augsburg are next on 3.7.
Schalke 04 are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Bundesliga in 2026/2027, with 3 goals from chances worth 5.7 xG, a shortfall of 2.7. FC Köln are next on 1.7.
Borussia Dortmund are the luckiest side in the Bundesliga in 2026/2027, with 12 points from performances worth 7.6 xPts, 4.4 more than their chances deserved. FC Augsburg and Elversberg are next on 2.7.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are the unluckiest side in the Bundesliga in 2026/2027, with no points from performances worth 3.4 xPts, 3.4 short of what they deserved. TSG Hoffenheim are next on 3.1.
FC Bayern München would be top of the Bundesliga in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 9.7 xPts from 10.0 xG created and 2.8 conceded across four matches. Bayer 04 Leverkusen are next on 9.0.
FC Bayern München and Bayer 04 Leverkusen share the most xG in the Bundesliga in 2026/2027, both on 10.0 from four matches, 2.5 a game against a competition average of 1.8. FSV Mainz 05 are next on 9.2.
Paderborn have created the least xG in the Bundesliga in 2026/2027, 3.3 from four matches, 0.8 a game against a competition average of 1.8. Hamburger SV are next on 3.4.
Borussia Mönchengladbach have conceded the most xG in the Bundesliga in 2026/2027, 12.5 from four matches, 3.1 a game against a competition average of 1.8. FC Union Berlin are next on 9.9.
FC Bayern München have conceded the least xG in the Bundesliga in 2026/2027, 2.8 from four matches, 0.7 a game against a competition average of 1.8. Bayer 04 Leverkusen are next on 3.5.
Bundesliga teams have averaged 1.77 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 36 matches played, and have scored 1.90 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.57 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Bundesliga teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.99 a game against 1.54 away, a home advantage of +0.45, against +0.41 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Bayern München | 4 | 14 | 10.0 | +4.0 | 2 | 2.8 | -0.8 | +12 | 7.2 | +4.8 | 10 | 9.7 | +0.3 |
| 2 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 4 | 10 | 10.0 | +0.0 | 5 | 3.5 | +1.5 | +5 | 6.5 | -1.5 | 7 | 9.0 | -2.0 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 4 | 12 | 9.1 | +2.9 | 3 | 4.0 | -1.0 | +9 | 5.1 | +3.9 | 10 | 8.4 | +1.6 |
| 4 | Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 9 | 6.9 | +2.1 | 2 | 3.8 | -1.8 | +7 | 3.1 | +3.9 | 12 | 7.6 | +4.4 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 9 | 8.4 | +0.6 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | +4 | 3.9 | +0.1 | 6 | 7.5 | -1.5 |
| 6 | FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 10 | 9.2 | +0.8 | 6 | 6.3 | -0.3 | +4 | 2.9 | +1.1 | 7 | 7.3 | -0.3 |
| 7 | TSG Hoffenheim | 4 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 | 10 | 6.6 | +3.4 | -3 | 0.8 | -3.8 | 3 | 6.1 | -3.1 |
| 8 | FC Köln | 4 | 6 | 7.7 | -1.7 | 9 | 8.4 | +0.6 | -3 | -0.7 | -2.3 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 |
| 9 | VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 | 9 | 8.6 | +0.4 | -3 | -1.1 | -1.9 | 3 | 4.7 | -1.7 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | 9 | 7.6 | +1.4 | 10 | 9.2 | +0.8 | -1 | -1.5 | +0.5 | 5 | 4.7 | +0.3 |
| 11 | Werder Bremen | 4 | 8 | 5.1 | +2.9 | 8 | 6.4 | +1.6 | +0 | -1.2 | +1.2 | 7 | 4.6 | +2.4 |
| 12 | FC Augsburg | 4 | 11 | 7.3 | +3.7 | 6 | 9.3 | -3.3 | +5 | -1.9 | +6.9 | 7 | 4.3 | +2.7 |
| 13 | Elversberg | 4 | 8 | 6.2 | +1.8 | 7 | 8.4 | -1.4 | +1 | -2.1 | +3.1 | 7 | 4.3 | +2.7 |
| 14 | Schalke 04 | 4 | 3 | 5.7 | -2.7 | 4 | 9.1 | -5.1 | -1 | -3.5 | +2.5 | 5 | 3.7 | +1.3 |
| 15 | Paderborn | 4 | 3 | 3.3 | -0.3 | 5 | 6.2 | -1.2 | -2 | -2.8 | +0.8 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 |
| 16 | FC Union Berlin | 4 | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 | 17 | 9.9 | +7.1 | -13 | -4.9 | -8.1 | 1 | 3.5 | -2.5 |
| 17 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 6 | 7.3 | -1.3 | 16 | 12.5 | +3.5 | -10 | -5.2 | -4.8 | 0 | 3.4 | -3.4 |
| 18 | Hamburger SV | 4 | 2 | 3.4 | -1.4 | 13 | 7.9 | +5.1 | -11 | -4.6 | -6.4 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 |