Rheindorf Altach have the biggest shortfall in the Austrian Bundesliga: 26 points from chances worth 39.6 xPts, a gap of 13.6. At the other end, Austria Wien have taken 60 points from an xPts figure of 49.9, 10.1 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salzburg | 16 | 34 | 34.1 | -0.1 | 14 | 14.2 | -0.2 | +20 | 19.9 | +0.1 | 34 | 32.8 | +1.2 |
| 2 | Sturm Graz | 16 | 43 | 32.6 | +10.4 | 18 | 16.1 | +1.9 | +25 | 16.4 | +8.6 | 36 | 31.7 | +4.3 |
| 3 | SK Rapid | 16 | 27 | 30.4 | -3.4 | 13 | 15.7 | -2.7 | +14 | 14.7 | -0.7 | 32 | 29.6 | +2.4 |
| 4 | Austria Wien | 16 | 28 | 27.2 | +0.8 | 16 | 16.2 | -0.2 | +12 | 11.0 | +1.0 | 33 | 28.7 | +4.3 |
| 5 | LASK Linz | 16 | 26 | 25.0 | +1.0 | 18 | 15.0 | +3.0 | +8 | 10.0 | -2.0 | 25 | 28.5 | -3.5 |
| 6 | Wolfsberger AC | 16 | 31 | 24.1 | +6.9 | 19 | 19.2 | -0.2 | +12 | 4.9 | +7.1 | 27 | 24.8 | +2.2 |
| 7 | Hartberg | 16 | 21 | 20.4 | +0.6 | 20 | 18.2 | +1.8 | +1 | 2.2 | -1.2 | 23 | 23.5 | -0.5 |
| 8 | Austria Klagenfurt | 16 | 19 | 25.3 | -6.3 | 29 | 24.1 | +4.9 | -10 | 1.2 | -11.2 | 14 | 22.3 | -8.3 |
| 9 | Blau-Weiß Linz | 16 | 22 | 22.4 | -0.4 | 19 | 22.0 | -3.0 | +3 | 0.4 | +2.6 | 24 | 22.1 | +1.9 |
| 10 | Rheindorf Altach | 14 | 15 | 20.9 | -5.9 | 15 | 16.8 | -1.8 | +0 | 4.1 | -4.1 | 14 | 21.7 | -7.7 |
| 11 | Grazer AK | 16 | 16 | 16.9 | -0.9 | 24 | 24.0 | +0.0 | -8 | -7.1 | -0.9 | 15 | 18.5 | -3.5 |
| 12 | WSG Tirol | 16 | 15 | 16.3 | -1.3 | 22 | 25.2 | -3.2 | -7 | -8.9 | +1.9 | 16 | 16.0 | +0.0 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salzburg | 16 | 19 | 24.7 | -5.7 | 22 | 18.2 | +3.8 | -3 | 6.5 | -9.5 | 23 | 26.0 | -3.0 |
| 2 | LASK Linz | 16 | 25 | 19.9 | +5.1 | 18 | 17.8 | +0.2 | +7 | 2.0 | +5.0 | 29 | 23.2 | +5.8 |
| 3 | Sturm Graz | 16 | 23 | 23.1 | -0.1 | 21 | 22.9 | -1.9 | +2 | 0.2 | +1.8 | 27 | 23.1 | +3.9 |
| 4 | Wolfsberger AC | 16 | 29 | 22.3 | +6.7 | 19 | 19.9 | -0.9 | +10 | 2.4 | +7.6 | 28 | 22.4 | +5.6 |
| 5 | SK Rapid | 16 | 16 | 21.1 | -5.1 | 29 | 23.8 | +5.2 | -13 | -2.7 | -10.3 | 12 | 21.6 | -9.6 |
| 6 | Austria Wien | 16 | 19 | 21.6 | -2.6 | 16 | 23.0 | -7.0 | +3 | -1.4 | +4.4 | 27 | 21.1 | +5.9 |
| 7 | Rheindorf Altach | 16 | 13 | 14.6 | -1.6 | 28 | 20.7 | +7.3 | -15 | -6.1 | -8.9 | 12 | 17.9 | -5.9 |
| 8 | Hartberg | 16 | 19 | 19.1 | -0.1 | 20 | 28.4 | -8.4 | -1 | -9.3 | +8.3 | 21 | 16.7 | +4.3 |
| 9 | Grazer AK | 16 | 18 | 16.3 | +1.7 | 30 | 28.3 | +1.7 | -12 | -12.1 | +0.1 | 13 | 15.6 | -2.6 |
| 10 | WSG Tirol | 15 | 18 | 15.0 | +3.0 | 27 | 29.7 | -2.7 | -9 | -14.7 | +5.7 | 11 | 12.9 | -1.9 |
| 11 | Austria Klagenfurt | 16 | 14 | 17.2 | -3.2 | 41 | 36.0 | +5.0 | -27 | -18.8 | -8.2 | 13 | 12.5 | +0.5 |
| 12 | Blau-Weiß Linz | 15 | 14 | 11.7 | +2.3 | 26 | 26.8 | -0.8 | -12 | -15.1 | +3.1 | 11 | 11.6 | -0.6 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sturm Graz | 5 | 7 | 9.8 | -2.8 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 | +0 | 4.2 | -4.2 | 7 | 9.5 | -2.5 |
| 2 | LASK Linz | 5 | 9 | 7.9 | +1.1 | 2 | 3.8 | -1.8 | +7 | 4.1 | +2.9 | 8 | 9.5 | -1.5 |
| 3 | Salzburg | 5 | 11 | 8.1 | +2.9 | 9 | 6.9 | +2.1 | +2 | 1.2 | +0.8 | 9 | 7.6 | +1.4 |
| 4 | Hartberg | 5 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 | 3 | 5.7 | -2.7 | +4 | 0.0 | +4.0 | 11 | 7.1 | +3.9 |
| 5 | Austria Klagenfurt | 5 | 2 | 8.1 | -6.1 | 12 | 7.8 | +4.2 | -10 | 0.3 | -10.3 | 2 | 7.0 | -5.0 |
| 6 | Austria Wien | 5 | 6 | 7.8 | -1.8 | 7 | 7.5 | -0.5 | -1 | 0.3 | -1.3 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | SK Rapid | 5 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 | 7 | 7.1 | -0.1 | +0 | -0.1 | +0.1 | 7 | 6.9 | +0.1 |
| 8 | Grazer AK | 5 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 | 5 | 6.6 | -1.6 | +1 | -0.6 | +1.6 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 |
| 9 | Rheindorf Altach | 5 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 | +1 | 0.0 | +1.0 | 6 | 6.1 | -0.1 |
| 10 | Wolfsberger AC | 5 | 7 | 5.2 | +1.8 | 4 | 7.1 | -3.1 | +3 | -1.9 | +4.9 | 10 | 5.7 | +4.3 |
| 11 | WSG Tirol | 5 | 8 | 5.1 | +2.9 | 11 | 9.1 | +1.9 | -3 | -4.0 | +1.0 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 |
| 12 | Blau-Weiß Linz | 5 | 3 | 4.3 | -1.3 | 7 | 8.1 | -1.1 | -4 | -3.8 | -0.2 | 2 | 4.6 | -2.6 |
Wolfsberger AC overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2024/2025, with 60 goals from chances worth 46.4 xG, a gap of 13.6. Sturm Graz were next on 10.3.
Austria Klagenfurt underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2024/2025, with 33 goals from chances worth 42.5 xG, a shortfall of 9.5. SK Rapid were next on 8.5.
Austria Wien were the luckiest side in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2024/2025, with 60 points from performances worth 49.9 xPts, 10.1 more than their chances deserved. Sturm Graz were next on 8.2.
Rheindorf Altach were the unluckiest side in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2024/2025, with 26 points from performances worth 39.6 xPts, 13.6 short of what they deserved. Austria Klagenfurt were next on 7.8.
Salzburg would be top of the Austrian Bundesliga in 2024/2025 on expected points, with 58.8 xPts from 58.8 xG created and 32.4 conceded across 32 matches. Sturm Graz were next on 54.8.
Salzburg created the most xG in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2024/2025, 58.8 from 32 matches, 1.8 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Sturm Graz were next on 55.7.
WSG Tirol created the least xG in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2024/2025, 31.3 from 31 matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Grazer AK were next on 33.2.
Austria Klagenfurt conceded the most xG in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2024/2025, 60.1 from 32 matches, 1.9 a game against a competition average of 1.4. WSG Tirol were next on 54.9.
Salzburg conceded the least xG in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2024/2025, 32.4 from 32 matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.4. LASK Linz were next on 32.8.
Austrian Bundesliga teams averaged 1.37 xG a game in 2024/2025, from the 190 matches played, and scored 1.38 goals a game from it.
Austrian Bundesliga teams created more xG at home in 2024/2025, 1.56 a game against 1.19 away, a home advantage of +0.36.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salzburg | 32 | 53 | 58.8 | -5.8 | 36 | 32.4 | +3.6 | +17 | 26.4 | -9.4 | 57 | 58.8 | -1.8 |
| 2 | Sturm Graz | 32 | 66 | 55.7 | +10.3 | 39 | 39.0 | +0.0 | +27 | 16.7 | +10.3 | 63 | 54.8 | +8.2 |
| 3 | LASK Linz | 32 | 51 | 44.9 | +6.1 | 36 | 32.8 | +3.2 | +15 | 12.0 | +3.0 | 54 | 51.7 | +2.3 |
| 4 | SK Rapid | 32 | 43 | 51.5 | -8.5 | 42 | 39.5 | +2.5 | +1 | 12.0 | -11.0 | 44 | 51.2 | -7.2 |
| 5 | Austria Wien | 32 | 47 | 48.8 | -1.8 | 32 | 39.2 | -7.2 | +15 | 9.6 | +5.4 | 60 | 49.9 | +10.1 |
| 6 | Wolfsberger AC | 32 | 60 | 46.4 | +13.6 | 38 | 39.1 | -1.1 | +22 | 7.3 | +14.7 | 55 | 47.2 | +7.8 |
| 7 | Hartberg | 32 | 40 | 39.5 | +0.5 | 40 | 46.6 | -6.6 | +0 | -7.1 | +7.1 | 44 | 40.2 | +3.8 |
| 8 | Rheindorf Altach | 30 | 28 | 35.5 | -7.5 | 43 | 37.5 | +5.5 | -15 | -2.0 | -13.0 | 26 | 39.6 | -13.6 |
| 9 | Austria Klagenfurt | 32 | 33 | 42.5 | -9.5 | 70 | 60.1 | +9.9 | -37 | -17.6 | -19.4 | 27 | 34.8 | -7.8 |
| 10 | Grazer AK | 32 | 34 | 33.2 | +0.8 | 54 | 52.3 | +1.7 | -20 | -19.1 | -0.9 | 28 | 34.1 | -6.1 |
| 11 | Blau-Weiß Linz | 31 | 36 | 34.2 | +1.8 | 45 | 48.8 | -3.8 | -9 | -14.7 | +5.7 | 35 | 33.7 | +1.3 |
| 12 | WSG Tirol | 31 | 33 | 31.3 | +1.7 | 49 | 54.9 | -5.9 | -16 | -23.6 | +7.6 | 27 | 28.9 | -1.9 |