Rheindorf Altach have the biggest shortfall in the Austrian Bundesliga: 3 points from chances worth 9.4 xPts, a gap of 6.4. At the other end, SK Rapid have taken 18 points from an xPts figure of 13.0, 5.0 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SK Rapid | 4 | 15 | 11.5 | +3.5 | 1 | 2.8 | -1.8 | +14 | 8.6 | +5.4 | 12 | 9.3 | +2.7 |
| 2 | Salzburg | 4 | 13 | 8.9 | +4.1 | 2 | 2.8 | -0.8 | +11 | 6.1 | +4.9 | 12 | 8.7 | +3.3 |
| 3 | LASK Linz | 3 | 10 | 6.0 | +4.0 | 1 | 1.5 | -0.5 | +9 | 4.5 | +4.5 | 9 | 7.1 | +1.9 |
| 4 | Ried | 4 | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 | 4 | 6.3 | -2.3 | +3 | 1.6 | +1.4 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 |
| 5 | Grazer AK | 3 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.2 | 3 | 1.8 | +1.2 | +1 | 2.3 | -1.3 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 |
| 6 | Rheindorf Altach | 3 | 5 | 4.1 | +0.9 | 5 | 2.6 | +2.4 | +0 | 1.6 | -1.6 | 3 | 5.1 | -2.1 |
| 7 | Austria Lustenau | 4 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | 6 | 7.1 | -1.1 | -1 | -1.7 | +0.7 | 7 | 4.5 | +2.5 |
| 8 | Wolfsberger AC | 4 | 5 | 3.9 | +1.1 | 7 | 6.2 | +0.8 | -2 | -2.3 | +0.3 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 |
| 9 | Hartberg | 4 | 6 | 4.0 | +2.0 | 9 | 5.5 | +3.5 | -3 | -1.4 | -1.6 | 4 | 4.3 | -0.3 |
| 10 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 | 2 | 5.5 | -3.5 | +2 | -0.1 | +2.1 | 7 | 4.1 | +2.9 |
| 11 | WSG Tirol | 3 | 3 | 6.3 | -3.3 | 6 | 6.7 | -0.7 | -3 | -0.4 | -2.6 | 2 | 4.1 | -2.1 |
| 12 | Austria Wien | 3 | 2 | 2.5 | -0.5 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 | -2 | -3.0 | +1.0 | 3 | 2.6 | +0.4 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LASK Linz | 4 | 9 | 9.0 | +0.0 | 6 | 3.3 | +2.7 | +3 | 5.7 | -2.7 | 7 | 8.9 | -1.9 |
| 2 | WSG Tirol | 4 | 6 | 5.9 | +0.1 | 6 | 4.2 | +1.8 | +0 | 1.8 | -1.8 | 6 | 6.7 | -0.7 |
| 3 | Salzburg | 3 | 5 | 7.6 | -2.6 | 2 | 4.7 | -2.7 | +3 | 2.9 | +0.1 | 5 | 6.0 | -1.0 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 4 | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 | 7 | 4.9 | +2.1 | -3 | 0.2 | -3.2 | 4 | 5.8 | -1.8 |
| 5 | Rheindorf Altach | 4 | 0 | 4.3 | -4.3 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 | -7 | -2.1 | -4.9 | 0 | 4.3 | -4.3 |
| 6 | Austria Wien | 4 | 5 | 3.0 | +2.0 | 9 | 5.1 | +3.9 | -4 | -2.1 | -1.9 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 |
| 7 | Ried | 3 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | 8 | 4.7 | +3.3 | -4 | 0.0 | -4.0 | 1 | 4.0 | -3.0 |
| 8 | SK Rapid | 3 | 6 | 3.6 | +2.4 | 6 | 4.5 | +1.5 | +0 | -0.9 | +0.9 | 6 | 3.7 | +2.3 |
| 9 | Austria Lustenau | 3 | 3 | 3.3 | -0.3 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 | -2 | -1.8 | -0.2 | 1 | 2.9 | -1.9 |
| 10 | Grazer AK | 4 | 2 | 2.7 | -0.7 | 13 | 10.3 | +2.7 | -11 | -7.6 | -3.4 | 3 | 2.3 | +0.7 |
| 11 | Wolfsberger AC | 3 | 2 | 3.4 | -1.4 | 6 | 9.3 | -3.3 | -4 | -5.9 | +1.9 | 1 | 1.2 | -0.2 |
| 12 | Hartberg | 3 | 4 | 1.8 | +2.2 | 4 | 7.9 | -3.9 | +0 | -6.1 | +6.1 | 4 | 1.2 | +2.8 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LASK Linz | 5 | 14 | 10.0 | +4.0 | 7 | 3.9 | +3.1 | +7 | 6.2 | +0.8 | 10 | 10.9 | -0.9 |
| 2 | SK Rapid | 5 | 18 | 11.8 | +6.2 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 | +12 | 6.8 | +5.2 | 12 | 9.6 | +2.4 |
| 3 | Salzburg | 5 | 16 | 10.3 | +5.7 | 3 | 6.5 | -3.5 | +13 | 3.8 | +9.2 | 13 | 9.4 | +3.6 |
| 4 | WSG Tirol | 5 | 7 | 9.8 | -2.8 | 8 | 7.6 | +0.4 | -1 | 2.2 | -3.2 | 7 | 8.5 | -1.5 |
| 5 | Rheindorf Altach | 5 | 2 | 6.2 | -4.2 | 10 | 5.8 | +4.2 | -8 | 0.4 | -8.4 | 0 | 7.3 | -7.3 |
| 6 | Ried | 5 | 9 | 8.8 | +0.2 | 9 | 8.6 | +0.4 | +0 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 |
| 7 | Austria Wien | 5 | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 | 8 | 5.6 | +2.4 | -1 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 7 | 6.2 | +0.8 |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 5 | 6 | 7.1 | -1.1 | 8 | 8.2 | -0.2 | -2 | -1.1 | -0.9 | 7 | 6.1 | +0.9 |
| 9 | Grazer AK | 5 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 | 12 | 9.2 | +2.8 | -8 | -4.4 | -3.6 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 |
| 10 | Sturm Graz | 5 | 5 | 6.8 | -1.8 | 8 | 9.2 | -1.2 | -3 | -2.4 | -0.6 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 |
| 11 | Hartberg | 5 | 10 | 5.1 | +4.9 | 10 | 7.9 | +2.1 | +0 | -2.8 | +2.8 | 8 | 5.0 | +3.0 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 5 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 | 12 | 12.8 | -0.8 | -9 | -8.3 | -0.7 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 |
SK Rapid are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2026/2027, with 21 goals from chances worth 15.0 xG, a gap of 6.0. Hartberg are next on 4.2.
Rheindorf Altach are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2026/2027, with 5 goals from chances worth 8.4 xG, a shortfall of 3.4. WSG Tirol are next on 3.2.
SK Rapid are the luckiest side in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2026/2027, with 18 points from performances worth 13.0 xPts, 5.0 more than their chances deserved. Hartberg are next on 2.5.
Rheindorf Altach are the unluckiest side in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2026/2027, with 3 points from performances worth 9.4 xPts, 6.4 short of what they deserved. WSG Tirol are next on 2.9.
LASK Linz would be top of the Austrian Bundesliga in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 16.0 xPts from 15.0 xG created and 4.8 conceded across seven matches. Salzburg are next on 14.6.
Salzburg have created the most xG in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2026/2027, 16.6 from seven matches, 2.4 a game against a competition average of 1.5. LASK Linz and SK Rapid are next on 15.0.
Austria Wien have created the least xG in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2026/2027, 5.5 from seven matches, 0.8 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Hartberg are next on 5.8.
Wolfsberger AC have conceded the most xG in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2026/2027, 15.5 from seven matches, 2.2 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Hartberg are next on 13.4.
LASK Linz have conceded the least xG in the Austrian Bundesliga in 2026/2027, 4.8 from seven matches, 0.7 a game against a competition average of 1.5. SK Rapid are next on 7.3.
Austrian Bundesliga teams have averaged 1.48 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 42 matches played, and have scored 1.54 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.34 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Austrian Bundesliga teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.67 a game against 1.30 away, a home advantage of +0.38, against +0.25 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LASK Linz | 7 | 19 | 15.0 | +4.0 | 7 | 4.8 | +2.2 | +12 | 10.3 | +1.7 | 16 | 16.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | Salzburg | 7 | 18 | 16.6 | +1.4 | 4 | 7.5 | -3.5 | +14 | 9.0 | +5.0 | 17 | 14.6 | +2.4 |
| 3 | SK Rapid | 7 | 21 | 15.0 | +6.0 | 7 | 7.3 | -0.3 | +14 | 7.7 | +6.3 | 18 | 13.0 | +5.0 |
| 4 | WSG Tirol | 7 | 9 | 12.2 | -3.2 | 12 | 10.8 | +1.2 | -3 | 1.4 | -4.4 | 8 | 10.9 | -2.9 |
| 5 | Ried | 7 | 11 | 12.6 | -1.6 | 12 | 11.0 | +1.0 | -1 | 1.6 | -2.6 | 8 | 9.9 | -1.9 |
| 6 | Sturm Graz | 7 | 8 | 10.5 | -2.5 | 9 | 10.4 | -1.4 | -1 | 0.1 | -1.1 | 11 | 9.9 | +1.1 |
| 7 | Rheindorf Altach | 7 | 5 | 8.4 | -3.4 | 12 | 9.0 | +3.0 | -7 | -0.5 | -6.5 | 3 | 9.4 | -6.4 |
| 8 | Grazer AK | 7 | 6 | 6.9 | -0.9 | 16 | 12.1 | +3.9 | -10 | -5.2 | -4.8 | 8 | 8.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | Austria Lustenau | 7 | 8 | 8.7 | -0.7 | 11 | 12.2 | -1.2 | -3 | -3.6 | +0.6 | 8 | 7.4 | +0.6 |
| 10 | Austria Wien | 7 | 7 | 5.5 | +1.5 | 13 | 10.6 | +2.4 | -6 | -5.1 | -0.9 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 |
| 11 | Wolfsberger AC | 7 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 | 13 | 15.5 | -2.5 | -6 | -8.1 | +2.1 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 |
| 12 | Hartberg | 7 | 10 | 5.8 | +4.2 | 13 | 13.4 | -0.4 | -3 | -7.6 | +4.6 | 8 | 5.5 | +2.5 |