Västerås SK have the biggest shortfall in the Allsvenskan: 23 points from chances worth 41.3 xPts, a gap of 18.3. At the other end, Hammarby have taken 54 points from an xPts figure of 41.4, 12.6 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malmö FF | 15 | 38 | 27.5 | +10.5 | 7 | 14.5 | -7.5 | +31 | 13.0 | +18.0 | 40 | 28.4 | +11.6 |
| 2 | Elfsborg | 15 | 32 | 23.0 | +9.0 | 16 | 14.6 | +1.4 | +16 | 8.4 | +7.6 | 30 | 25.6 | +4.4 |
| 3 | AIK | 15 | 29 | 22.5 | +6.5 | 15 | 15.3 | -0.3 | +14 | 7.2 | +6.8 | 31 | 25.1 | +5.9 |
| 4 | Västerås SK | 15 | 15 | 26.7 | -11.7 | 21 | 19.5 | +1.5 | -6 | 7.2 | -13.2 | 15 | 24.7 | -9.7 |
| 5 | GAIS | 15 | 22 | 23.4 | -1.4 | 11 | 18.1 | -7.1 | +11 | 5.3 | +5.7 | 31 | 24.0 | +7.0 |
| 6 | Mjällby | 14 | 25 | 20.9 | +4.1 | 16 | 14.3 | +1.7 | +9 | 6.6 | +2.4 | 29 | 23.7 | +5.3 |
| 7 | Sirius | 15 | 27 | 26.7 | +0.3 | 22 | 22.5 | -0.5 | +5 | 4.1 | +0.9 | 21 | 23.1 | -2.1 |
| 8 | Hammarby | 15 | 28 | 20.5 | +7.5 | 12 | 17.0 | -5.0 | +16 | 3.5 | +12.5 | 31 | 22.5 | +8.5 |
| 9 | Häcken | 15 | 31 | 25.4 | +5.6 | 25 | 23.2 | +1.8 | +6 | 2.2 | +3.8 | 21 | 22.3 | -1.3 |
| 10 | Djurgården | 15 | 21 | 19.5 | +1.5 | 16 | 16.5 | -0.5 | +5 | 3.0 | +2.0 | 26 | 22.0 | +4.0 |
| 11 | Norrköping | 15 | 19 | 20.5 | -1.5 | 27 | 19.6 | +7.4 | -8 | 0.9 | -8.9 | 20 | 21.1 | -1.1 |
| 12 | IFK Göteborg | 15 | 14 | 18.9 | -4.9 | 20 | 19.0 | +1.0 | -6 | -0.1 | -5.9 | 15 | 20.7 | -5.7 |
| 13 | Brommapojkarna | 15 | 20 | 20.5 | -0.5 | 27 | 21.5 | +5.5 | -7 | -1.0 | -6.0 | 17 | 20.1 | -3.1 |
| 14 | Värnamo | 15 | 14 | 17.5 | -3.5 | 27 | 20.8 | +6.2 | -13 | -3.3 | -9.7 | 10 | 18.9 | -8.9 |
| 15 | Halmstad | 15 | 19 | 19.0 | +0.0 | 14 | 23.5 | -9.5 | +5 | -4.4 | +9.4 | 23 | 18.7 | +4.3 |
| 16 | Kalmar | 15 | 19 | 18.9 | +0.1 | 29 | 24.4 | +4.6 | -10 | -5.6 | -4.4 | 14 | 17.2 | -3.2 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malmö FF | 15 | 29 | 27.3 | +1.7 | 18 | 18.0 | +0.0 | +11 | 9.3 | +1.7 | 25 | 26.3 | -1.3 |
| 2 | Djurgården | 15 | 24 | 21.8 | +2.2 | 20 | 19.2 | +0.8 | +4 | 2.6 | +1.4 | 25 | 22.5 | +2.5 |
| 3 | Brommapojkarna | 15 | 26 | 21.5 | +4.5 | 26 | 20.5 | +5.5 | +0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 17 | 20.9 | -3.9 |
| 4 | AIK | 15 | 17 | 15.8 | +1.2 | 26 | 16.5 | +9.5 | -9 | -0.7 | -8.3 | 23 | 20.2 | +2.8 |
| 5 | GAIS | 15 | 14 | 18.9 | -4.9 | 23 | 21.2 | +1.8 | -9 | -2.2 | -6.8 | 17 | 19.4 | -2.4 |
| 6 | IFK Göteborg | 15 | 19 | 23.6 | -4.6 | 23 | 26.0 | -3.0 | -4 | -2.4 | -1.6 | 16 | 19.2 | -3.2 |
| 7 | Hammarby | 15 | 20 | 16.2 | +3.8 | 13 | 19.6 | -6.6 | +7 | -3.4 | +10.4 | 23 | 18.9 | +4.1 |
| 8 | Mjällby | 15 | 16 | 17.7 | -1.7 | 19 | 20.7 | -1.7 | -3 | -3.0 | +0.0 | 18 | 18.7 | -0.7 |
| 9 | Elfsborg | 15 | 20 | 19.5 | +0.5 | 28 | 22.2 | +5.8 | -8 | -2.7 | -5.3 | 15 | 18.6 | -3.6 |
| 10 | Värnamo | 15 | 17 | 16.4 | +0.6 | 13 | 19.9 | -6.9 | +4 | -3.5 | +7.5 | 22 | 18.0 | +4.0 |
| 11 | Häcken | 15 | 23 | 20.2 | +2.8 | 26 | 24.8 | +1.2 | -3 | -4.7 | +1.7 | 21 | 17.9 | +3.1 |
| 12 | Norrköping | 14 | 17 | 17.4 | -0.4 | 27 | 21.0 | +6.0 | -10 | -3.7 | -6.3 | 14 | 17.2 | -3.2 |
| 13 | Sirius | 15 | 20 | 19.0 | +1.0 | 24 | 24.8 | -0.8 | -4 | -5.8 | +1.8 | 20 | 16.7 | +3.3 |
| 14 | Västerås SK | 15 | 11 | 16.8 | -5.8 | 22 | 22.6 | -0.6 | -11 | -5.9 | -5.1 | 8 | 16.6 | -8.6 |
| 15 | Kalmar | 15 | 19 | 17.6 | +1.4 | 29 | 25.2 | +3.8 | -10 | -7.6 | -2.4 | 16 | 16.6 | -0.6 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 15 | 13 | 14.9 | -1.9 | 36 | 29.2 | +6.8 | -23 | -14.3 | -8.7 | 10 | 12.6 | -2.6 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mjällby | 5 | 8 | 7.2 | +0.8 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 | +5 | 3.2 | +1.8 | 11 | 8.9 | +2.1 |
| 2 | Hammarby | 5 | 8 | 6.4 | +1.6 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 | +5 | 2.6 | +2.4 | 10 | 8.2 | +1.8 |
| 3 | GAIS | 5 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 | 5 | 3.7 | +1.3 | +0 | 1.9 | -1.9 | 8 | 8.2 | -0.2 |
| 4 | Värnamo | 5 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 | 3 | 2.9 | +0.1 | +0 | 1.7 | -1.7 | 6 | 8.1 | -2.1 |
| 5 | AIK | 5 | 9 | 5.5 | +3.5 | 6 | 3.7 | +2.3 | +3 | 1.8 | +1.2 | 9 | 7.9 | +1.1 |
| 6 | Norrköping | 5 | 5 | 7.8 | -2.8 | 7 | 6.2 | +0.8 | -2 | 1.7 | -3.7 | 7 | 7.7 | -0.7 |
| 7 | Djurgården | 5 | 6 | 7.2 | -1.2 | 6 | 6.5 | -0.5 | +0 | 0.7 | -0.7 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 |
| 8 | Elfsborg | 5 | 4 | 6.3 | -2.3 | 9 | 5.2 | +3.8 | -5 | 1.1 | -6.1 | 4 | 7.1 | -3.1 |
| 9 | IFK Göteborg | 5 | 5 | 6.8 | -1.8 | 6 | 7.3 | -1.3 | -1 | -0.5 | -0.5 | 4 | 6.6 | -2.6 |
| 10 | Kalmar | 5 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | 6 | 6.7 | -0.7 | -1 | -1.0 | +0.0 | 8 | 6.5 | +1.5 |
| 11 | Halmstad | 5 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 | -1 | -1.7 | +0.7 | 9 | 6.0 | +3.0 |
| 12 | Brommapojkarna | 5 | 5 | 4.8 | +0.2 | 6 | 6.0 | +0.0 | -1 | -1.2 | +0.2 | 4 | 5.7 | -1.7 |
| 13 | Sirius | 5 | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 | 10 | 6.6 | +3.4 | -3 | -1.6 | -1.4 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 |
| 14 | Malmö FF | 5 | 8 | 5.9 | +2.1 | 6 | 7.9 | -1.9 | +2 | -2.0 | +4.0 | 9 | 5.6 | +3.4 |
| 15 | Västerås SK | 5 | 4 | 5.3 | -1.3 | 6 | 8.3 | -2.3 | -2 | -3.1 | +1.1 | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 |
| 16 | Häcken | 5 | 6 | 4.4 | +1.6 | 5 | 8.1 | -3.1 | +1 | -3.7 | +4.7 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 |
Malmö FF overperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Allsvenskan in 2024, with 67 goals from chances worth 54.8 xG, a gap of 12.2. Hammarby were next on 11.3.
Västerås SK underperformed their xG by more than any other side in the Allsvenskan in 2024, with 26 goals from chances worth 43.4 xG, a shortfall of 17.4. IFK Göteborg were next on 9.5.
Hammarby were the luckiest side in the Allsvenskan in 2024, with 54 points from performances worth 41.4 xPts, 12.6 more than their chances deserved. Malmö FF were next on 10.3.
Västerås SK were the unluckiest side in the Allsvenskan in 2024, with 23 points from performances worth 41.3 xPts, 18.3 short of what they deserved. IFK Göteborg were next on 9.0.
Malmö FF were also top of the Allsvenskan in 2024 on expected points, with 54.7 xPts from 54.8 xG created and 32.5 conceded across 30 matches. AIK were next on 45.3.
Malmö FF created the most xG in the Allsvenskan in 2024, 54.8 from 30 matches, 1.8 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Sirius were next on 45.6.
Värnamo and Halmstad shared the least xG in the Allsvenskan in 2024, both on 33.9 from 30 matches, 1.1 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Kalmar were next on 36.5.
Halmstad conceded the most xG in the Allsvenskan in 2024, 52.6 from 30 matches, 1.8 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Kalmar were next on 49.7.
AIK conceded the least xG in the Allsvenskan in 2024, 31.8 from 30 matches, 1.1 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Malmö FF were next on 32.5.
Allsvenskan teams averaged 1.37 xG a game in 2024, from the 239 matches played, and scored 1.42 goals a game from it.
Allsvenskan teams created more xG at home in 2024, 1.47 a game against 1.27 away, a home advantage of +0.20.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malmö FF | 30 | 67 | 54.8 | +12.2 | 25 | 32.5 | -7.5 | +42 | 22.3 | +19.7 | 65 | 54.7 | +10.3 |
| 2 | AIK | 30 | 46 | 38.2 | +7.8 | 41 | 31.8 | +9.2 | +5 | 6.5 | -1.5 | 54 | 45.3 | +8.7 |
| 3 | Djurgården | 30 | 45 | 41.3 | +3.7 | 36 | 35.7 | +0.3 | +9 | 5.6 | +3.4 | 51 | 44.5 | +6.5 |
| 4 | Elfsborg | 30 | 52 | 42.5 | +9.5 | 44 | 36.8 | +7.2 | +8 | 5.8 | +2.2 | 45 | 44.2 | +0.8 |
| 5 | GAIS | 30 | 36 | 42.3 | -6.3 | 34 | 39.3 | -5.3 | +2 | 3.1 | -1.1 | 48 | 43.4 | +4.6 |
| 6 | Mjällby | 29 | 41 | 38.6 | +2.4 | 35 | 35.0 | +0.0 | +6 | 3.6 | +2.4 | 47 | 42.5 | +4.5 |
| 7 | Hammarby | 30 | 48 | 36.7 | +11.3 | 25 | 36.6 | -11.6 | +23 | 0.1 | +22.9 | 54 | 41.4 | +12.6 |
| 8 | Västerås SK | 30 | 26 | 43.4 | -17.4 | 43 | 42.1 | +0.9 | -17 | 1.3 | -18.3 | 23 | 41.3 | -18.3 |
| 9 | Brommapojkarna | 30 | 46 | 42.0 | +4.0 | 53 | 42.0 | +11.0 | -7 | 0.0 | -7.0 | 34 | 41.0 | -7.0 |
| 10 | Häcken | 30 | 54 | 45.5 | +8.5 | 51 | 48.0 | +3.0 | +3 | -2.5 | +5.5 | 42 | 40.1 | +1.9 |
| 11 | IFK Göteborg | 30 | 33 | 42.5 | -9.5 | 43 | 45.0 | -2.0 | -10 | -2.5 | -7.5 | 31 | 40.0 | -9.0 |
| 12 | Sirius | 30 | 47 | 45.6 | +1.4 | 46 | 47.3 | -1.3 | +1 | -1.7 | +2.7 | 41 | 39.8 | +1.2 |
| 13 | Norrköping | 29 | 36 | 37.9 | -1.9 | 54 | 40.7 | +13.3 | -18 | -2.8 | -15.2 | 34 | 38.3 | -4.3 |
| 14 | Värnamo | 30 | 31 | 33.9 | -2.9 | 40 | 40.7 | -0.7 | -9 | -6.8 | -2.2 | 32 | 37.0 | -5.0 |
| 15 | Kalmar | 30 | 38 | 36.5 | +1.5 | 58 | 49.7 | +8.3 | -20 | -13.2 | -6.8 | 30 | 33.8 | -3.8 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 30 | 32 | 33.9 | -1.9 | 50 | 52.6 | -2.6 | -18 | -18.7 | +0.7 | 33 | 31.3 | +1.7 |