Kalmar have the biggest shortfall in the Allsvenskan: 19 points from chances worth 31.9 xPts, a gap of 12.9. At the other end, Västerås SK have taken 35 points from an xPts figure of 23.1, 11.9 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hammarby | 11 | 34 | 28.3 | +5.7 | 6 | 9.4 | -3.4 | +28 | 18.9 | +9.1 | 28 | 25.0 | +3.0 |
| 2 | Djurgården | 12 | 30 | 25.7 | +4.3 | 14 | 13.6 | +0.4 | +16 | 12.1 | +3.9 | 19 | 23.1 | -4.1 |
| 3 | Sirius | 11 | 25 | 23.7 | +1.3 | 15 | 12.5 | +2.5 | +10 | 11.1 | -1.1 | 23 | 20.7 | +2.3 |
| 4 | GAIS | 11 | 16 | 21.0 | -5.0 | 4 | 12.7 | -8.7 | +12 | 8.3 | +3.7 | 19 | 20.1 | -1.1 |
| 5 | Häcken | 11 | 18 | 21.1 | -3.1 | 18 | 15.5 | +2.5 | +0 | 5.5 | -5.5 | 17 | 18.6 | -1.6 |
| 6 | IFK Göteborg | 11 | 15 | 19.6 | -4.6 | 13 | 14.6 | -1.6 | +2 | 5.0 | -3.0 | 18 | 18.2 | -0.2 |
| 7 | Malmö FF | 11 | 24 | 17.7 | +6.3 | 20 | 13.4 | +6.6 | +4 | 4.3 | -0.3 | 13 | 17.7 | -4.7 |
| 8 | Kalmar | 11 | 14 | 14.4 | -0.4 | 17 | 11.9 | +5.1 | -3 | 2.5 | -5.5 | 17 | 17.3 | -0.3 |
| 9 | Elfsborg | 11 | 17 | 16.5 | +0.5 | 9 | 14.7 | -5.7 | +8 | 1.8 | +6.2 | 21 | 16.7 | +4.3 |
| 10 | AIK | 10 | 12 | 20.0 | -8.0 | 19 | 18.3 | +0.7 | -7 | 1.7 | -8.7 | 13 | 15.2 | -2.2 |
| 11 | Degerfors | 11 | 11 | 14.3 | -3.3 | 15 | 15.6 | -0.6 | -4 | -1.3 | -2.7 | 11 | 14.1 | -3.1 |
| 12 | Västerås SK | 11 | 17 | 13.6 | +3.4 | 13 | 15.3 | -2.3 | +4 | -1.7 | +5.7 | 16 | 14.1 | +1.9 |
| 13 | Brommapojkarna | 11 | 15 | 14.8 | +0.2 | 13 | 17.2 | -4.2 | +2 | -2.4 | +4.4 | 15 | 13.9 | +1.1 |
| 14 | Mjällby | 11 | 11 | 16.9 | -5.9 | 18 | 20.0 | -2.0 | -7 | -3.1 | -3.9 | 10 | 13.5 | -3.5 |
| 15 | Örgryte | 11 | 17 | 13.6 | +3.4 | 20 | 19.4 | +0.6 | -3 | -5.8 | +2.8 | 9 | 12.5 | -3.5 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 11 | 9 | 12.0 | -3.0 | 18 | 22.9 | -4.9 | -9 | -10.9 | +1.9 | 11 | 9.3 | +1.7 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hammarby | 11 | 15 | 23.3 | -8.3 | 14 | 13.5 | +0.5 | +1 | 9.8 | -8.8 | 15 | 20.4 | -5.4 |
| 2 | Sirius | 11 | 27 | 20.3 | +6.7 | 13 | 12.3 | +0.7 | +14 | 8.0 | +6.0 | 28 | 19.7 | +8.3 |
| 3 | Häcken | 11 | 21 | 18.4 | +2.6 | 12 | 13.5 | -1.5 | +9 | 4.9 | +4.1 | 19 | 18.4 | +0.6 |
| 4 | GAIS | 11 | 12 | 18.3 | -6.3 | 16 | 14.9 | +1.1 | -4 | 3.5 | -7.5 | 11 | 17.1 | -6.1 |
| 5 | Djurgården | 10 | 17 | 17.5 | -0.5 | 7 | 14.3 | -7.3 | +10 | 3.1 | +6.9 | 22 | 15.6 | +6.4 |
| 6 | IFK Göteborg | 11 | 16 | 17.3 | -1.3 | 28 | 17.9 | +10.1 | -12 | -0.6 | -11.4 | 14 | 15.1 | -1.1 |
| 7 | Kalmar | 11 | 7 | 16.0 | -9.0 | 19 | 18.9 | +0.1 | -12 | -2.9 | -9.1 | 2 | 14.7 | -12.7 |
| 8 | Elfsborg | 11 | 14 | 14.4 | -0.4 | 13 | 15.2 | -2.2 | +1 | -0.8 | +1.8 | 16 | 14.3 | +1.7 |
| 9 | Malmö FF | 11 | 13 | 14.6 | -1.6 | 13 | 18.7 | -5.7 | +0 | -4.2 | +4.2 | 20 | 12.8 | +7.2 |
| 10 | Brommapojkarna | 11 | 15 | 12.4 | +2.6 | 23 | 16.6 | +6.4 | -8 | -4.2 | -3.8 | 12 | 12.7 | -0.7 |
| 11 | AIK | 12 | 19 | 14.1 | +4.9 | 15 | 21.0 | -6.0 | +4 | -6.9 | +10.9 | 20 | 12.7 | +7.3 |
| 12 | Halmstad | 11 | 7 | 15.1 | -8.1 | 22 | 24.6 | -2.6 | -15 | -9.5 | -5.5 | 3 | 10.3 | -7.3 |
| 13 | Mjällby | 11 | 16 | 11.9 | +4.1 | 20 | 20.8 | -0.8 | -4 | -8.9 | +4.9 | 12 | 9.8 | +2.2 |
| 14 | Degerfors | 11 | 8 | 10.3 | -2.3 | 19 | 20.1 | -1.1 | -11 | -9.8 | -1.2 | 8 | 9.4 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Västerås SK | 11 | 17 | 12.7 | +4.3 | 22 | 24.5 | -2.5 | -5 | -11.9 | +6.9 | 19 | 9.0 | +10.0 |
| 16 | Örgryte | 11 | 8 | 10.4 | -2.4 | 29 | 26.1 | +2.9 | -21 | -15.7 | -5.3 | 6 | 7.2 | -1.2 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hammarby | 5 | 9 | 14.3 | -5.3 | 5 | 4.8 | +0.2 | +4 | 9.6 | -5.6 | 10 | 11.7 | -1.7 |
| 2 | IFK Göteborg | 5 | 9 | 8.9 | +0.1 | 3 | 5.8 | -2.8 | +6 | 3.1 | +2.9 | 13 | 8.9 | +4.1 |
| 3 | Häcken | 5 | 10 | 7.8 | +2.2 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | +6 | 2.7 | +3.3 | 8 | 8.8 | -0.8 |
| 4 | Djurgården | 5 | 10 | 8.4 | +1.6 | 2 | 5.0 | -3.0 | +8 | 3.4 | +4.6 | 12 | 8.6 | +3.4 |
| 5 | Kalmar | 5 | 0 | 7.1 | -7.1 | 8 | 5.1 | +2.9 | -8 | 2.0 | -10.0 | 1 | 8.4 | -7.4 |
| 6 | Malmö FF | 5 | 5 | 7.9 | -2.9 | 6 | 6.4 | -0.4 | -1 | 1.5 | -2.5 | 7 | 7.7 | -0.7 |
| 7 | AIK | 5 | 6 | 10.1 | -4.1 | 9 | 10.5 | -1.5 | -3 | -0.4 | -2.6 | 5 | 7.0 | -2.0 |
| 8 | Elfsborg | 5 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 | 4 | 6.8 | -2.8 | +3 | -0.3 | +3.3 | 10 | 6.8 | +3.2 |
| 9 | GAIS | 5 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | 4 | 7.9 | -3.9 | +3 | -0.8 | +3.8 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 |
| 10 | Sirius | 5 | 5 | 5.8 | -0.8 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | +0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 9 | 6.6 | +2.4 |
| 11 | Halmstad | 5 | 5 | 7.8 | -2.8 | 6 | 9.5 | -3.5 | -1 | -1.7 | +0.7 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 12 | Brommapojkarna | 5 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | 9 | 7.6 | +1.4 | -4 | -2.2 | -1.8 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 |
| 13 | Degerfors | 5 | 2 | 6.0 | -4.0 | 7 | 7.8 | -0.8 | -5 | -1.8 | -3.2 | 3 | 5.4 | -2.4 |
| 14 | Västerås SK | 5 | 9 | 6.0 | +3.0 | 3 | 8.3 | -5.3 | +6 | -2.4 | +8.4 | 10 | 5.4 | +4.6 |
| 15 | Örgryte | 5 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 | 9 | 11.3 | -2.3 | -5 | -5.8 | +0.8 | 2 | 4.2 | -2.2 |
| 16 | Mjällby | 5 | 3 | 5.8 | -2.8 | 11 | 10.3 | +0.7 | -8 | -4.6 | -3.4 | 2 | 4.1 | -2.1 |
Sirius are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Allsvenskan in 2026, with 52 goals from chances worth 43.9 xG, a gap of 8.1. Västerås SK are next on 7.8.
GAIS are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Allsvenskan in 2026, with 28 goals from chances worth 39.3 xG, a shortfall of 11.3. Halmstad are next on 11.1.
Västerås SK are the luckiest side in the Allsvenskan in 2026, with 35 points from performances worth 23.1 xPts, 11.9 more than their chances deserved. Sirius are next on 10.6.
Kalmar are the unluckiest side in the Allsvenskan in 2026, with 19 points from performances worth 31.9 xPts, 12.9 short of what they deserved. GAIS are next on 7.3.
Hammarby would be top of the Allsvenskan in 2026 on expected points, with 45.4 xPts from 51.5 xG created and 22.9 conceded across 22 matches. Sirius are next on 40.4.
Hammarby have created the most xG in the Allsvenskan in 2026, 51.5 from 22 matches, 2.3 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Sirius are next on 43.9.
Örgryte have created the least xG in the Allsvenskan in 2026, 24.0 from 22 matches, 1.1 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Degerfors are next on 24.6.
Halmstad have conceded the most xG in the Allsvenskan in 2026, 47.5 from 22 matches, 2.2 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Örgryte are next on 45.5.
Hammarby have conceded the least xG in the Allsvenskan in 2026, 22.9 from 22 matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Sirius are next on 24.8.
Allsvenskan teams have averaged 1.53 xG a game in 2026, from the 176 matches played, and have scored 1.47 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.51 xG a game in 2025.
Allsvenskan teams create more xG at home in 2026, 1.67 a game against 1.40 away, a home advantage of +0.26, against +0.24 in 2025.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hammarby | 22 | 49 | 51.5 | -2.5 | 20 | 22.9 | -2.9 | +29 | 28.6 | +0.4 | 43 | 45.4 | -2.4 |
| 2 | Sirius | 22 | 52 | 43.9 | +8.1 | 28 | 24.8 | +3.2 | +24 | 19.1 | +4.9 | 51 | 40.4 | +10.6 |
| 3 | Djurgården | 22 | 47 | 43.1 | +3.9 | 21 | 27.9 | -6.9 | +26 | 15.2 | +10.8 | 41 | 38.7 | +2.3 |
| 4 | GAIS | 22 | 28 | 39.3 | -11.3 | 20 | 27.6 | -7.6 | +8 | 11.7 | -3.7 | 30 | 37.3 | -7.3 |
| 5 | Häcken | 22 | 39 | 39.4 | -0.4 | 30 | 29.0 | +1.0 | +9 | 10.4 | -1.4 | 36 | 37.1 | -1.1 |
| 6 | IFK Göteborg | 22 | 31 | 37.0 | -6.0 | 41 | 32.5 | +8.5 | -10 | 4.5 | -14.5 | 32 | 33.3 | -1.3 |
| 7 | Kalmar | 22 | 21 | 30.4 | -9.4 | 36 | 30.8 | +5.2 | -15 | -0.5 | -14.5 | 19 | 31.9 | -12.9 |
| 8 | Elfsborg | 22 | 31 | 31.0 | +0.0 | 22 | 29.9 | -7.9 | +9 | 1.1 | +7.9 | 37 | 31.0 | +6.0 |
| 9 | Malmö FF | 22 | 37 | 32.2 | +4.8 | 33 | 32.1 | +0.9 | +4 | 0.1 | +3.9 | 33 | 30.5 | +2.5 |
| 10 | AIK | 22 | 31 | 34.1 | -3.1 | 34 | 39.3 | -5.3 | -3 | -5.1 | +2.1 | 33 | 27.9 | +5.1 |
| 11 | Brommapojkarna | 22 | 30 | 27.2 | +2.8 | 36 | 33.8 | +2.2 | -6 | -6.6 | +0.6 | 27 | 26.6 | +0.4 |
| 12 | Degerfors | 22 | 19 | 24.6 | -5.6 | 34 | 35.7 | -1.7 | -15 | -11.1 | -3.9 | 19 | 23.6 | -4.6 |
| 13 | Mjällby | 22 | 27 | 28.8 | -1.8 | 38 | 40.8 | -2.8 | -11 | -12.0 | +1.0 | 22 | 23.3 | -1.3 |
| 14 | Västerås SK | 22 | 34 | 26.2 | +7.8 | 35 | 39.8 | -4.8 | -1 | -13.6 | +12.6 | 35 | 23.1 | +11.9 |
| 15 | Halmstad | 22 | 16 | 27.1 | -11.1 | 40 | 47.5 | -7.5 | -24 | -20.4 | -3.6 | 14 | 19.7 | -5.7 |
| 16 | Örgryte | 22 | 25 | 24.0 | +1.0 | 49 | 45.5 | +3.5 | -24 | -21.5 | -2.5 | 15 | 19.7 | -4.7 |