Monday went two from three and the miss was the leg the preview had hedged on. France beat Belgium 4-1 and Italy beat Turkey 3-1, both comfortably. Montenegro drew 0-0 with Armenia, their first clean sheet and their first blank of the group after three straight one-goal wins with scoring at both ends. The season stands at 16 winners from 76 and +3.48pts.
Last night of the international window and the last Nations League card until November. Four legs, three of them away sides, and every one has a preview on the site.
Slovakia at 2/5 in Chisinau won the first meeting 2-0 and take 8.33 corners a game, the most of all 54 teams in the competition, while committing the fewest fouls of any of them. Moldova did beat Kazakhstan 2-1 on Friday.
Iceland at 4/7 have won 3-0 twice in this group and score 2.33 goals a game. Estonia have conceded one goal in three and kept two clean sheets, so the defensive records are level and the attacking ones are not. The two drew 1-1 in Reykjavik ten days ago.
Scotland at 3/4 are at Hampden after winning 2-0 in North Macedonia, their first goals of the window. The first meeting with Slovenia was goalless and the model has this the lowest-scoring game on the card.
Finland at 19/20 close it. They score three a game, third of 54, though seven of their nine arrived in one afternoon in San Marino. Belarus commit 17.67 fouls a game, second-most in the competition, and the first meeting between these two was 0-0.
Around 13/2 the four-fold, and half a point at that price.
Combined odds: 7.5 with bet365 at the time of writing, staked 0.5pt.
Every Daily Acca settles here on a tiered stake - 1pt under 5.0, 0.5pt from 5.0 to 15.0, 0.25pt above that - because a short double and a long-odds five-fold are not the same bet. 16 winners from 76 so far, and the season is +3.48pts.
Every accumulator starts in the Statz Acca Builder, which prices the day's match and goals markets against the projections model and selects legs by projected probability - not by price, and never by a claimed "edge" against the bookmaker. The day's strategy decides how they combine: a short-priced treble on a quiet card, a both-teams-to-score slip when the model likes goals, a longer five-fold on a full weekend.
Legs are shown in kickoff order, the way the day actually unfolds, with each leg's price and the model's probability beside it. Every slip carries its combined price and a one-tap link that loads all the legs into your bookmaker's betslip, and the season ledger below keeps the full settled record.
Slips are staked on a tiered ladder: one point at combined odds under 5.0, half a point from 5.0 to 15.0, and a quarter point above that. A short accumulator double and a long-odds five-fold are not the same bet, and a record that stakes them identically flatters whichever kind has been luckier lately.
The running total is quoted in points, wins and losses both published. Accumulators are high-variance by design - most slips lose, including good ones - which is exactly why the record is public.
The accumulator goes up in the morning, UK time, on days with a card worth betting on. Cup nights and international breaks sometimes offer nothing our covered competitions price properly; on those days the column says so rather than forcing a slip out of weak markets.
Prices are the best available at the time of writing and move through the day, sometimes sharply near kickoff. The one-tap betslip link, where shown, repopulates the same legs at the bookmaker's current prices.
An accumulator combines outcomes across different matches, so its legs are close to independent; a bet builder stacks selections inside one game, so one match script drives every leg. The Daily Acca is the cross-match column; its single-game sibling publishes one builder per match on the bet builder tips page, under the same staking ladder and the same public-record rule.
Every leg links its full match stats page - form, head-to-head, projected lineups and the model's numbers for both teams. The Acca Builder prices every market on the day's card, so you can rebuild today's accumulator with your own legs, drop the one you disagree with, or raise the risk band if the price is too short for you.
+5.54pts at a 0.5pt stake, settled into the record above.
+3.5pts at a 0.5pt stake, settled into the record above.
+3.96pts at a 1pt stake, settled into the record above.
+3.91pts at a 1pt stake, settled into the record above.
A football accumulator - an acca - combines several selections from different matches into one bet, with the odds of every leg multiplied together. Every leg has to win for the accumulator to pay out, which is why the prices are big and the variance is bigger. The Daily Acca publishes one data-built accumulator each day with the full record of results.
One accumulator a day, built from the Statz projections model: a small number of selections across the day's fixtures, combined into a single slip with the prices and the reasoning shown. A new slip is published every morning there is a card worth betting on.
Every leg starts in the Statz Acca Builder, which prices the day's match and goals markets against the model's projections. The day's strategy - a safe short-price slip, a both-teams-to-score treble, a longer-odds value slip - decides how the legs are combined.
Yes - every slip settles into a public record on a tiered stake: 1pt at odds under 5.0, 0.5pt from 5.0 to 15.0 and 0.25pt above that, because a short double and a long-odds five-fold are not the same bet. Wins and losses both go up, and accumulators are high-variance by design: most slips lose, which is exactly why the record is published.
The slip for each day is published in the morning, UK time, and the prices shown are the prices at the time of writing - they can move before kickoff.
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