Pakistan vs Sri Lanka 1st Test Prediction (9 Nov): Projections & Preview

Pakistan host Sri Lanka at the Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium for the 1st Test of a 2-match series. First ball is at 10:00 PKT on Monday 9 November (05:00 UK time, 10:30 IST). The series is level – the first Test of a 2-match series – and Pakistan will be desperate to end a miserable run of form on home soil. For full head-to-head data, projections and lineups, visit the Pakistan vs Sri Lanka fixture page on Statz.

The Venue and Toss Prediction

Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium is a ground that rewards patience. Across 9 Test matches there, the average first-innings score is 380.3 and the average match total stands at 1,021.8. Seam and spin share the wickets almost equally – seam accounts for 48.4% of dismissals at an economy of 3.27, while spin takes 48.8% at 3.44. Neither discipline dominates, which makes this a proper Test match surface.

Pakistan’s record at this ground since 2021 reads W1 L4 D1 from 6 matches – a difficult home fortress to say the least. Sri Lanka have no recorded matches at this venue in the Statz dataset.

On the toss, the data offers almost no steer. Teams batting first have won just 28.6% of Tests here – a striking figure that suggests bowling first and exploiting any early movement could be the smarter call. The new ball on a fresh pitch at Rawalpindi has historically been more dangerous than the surface later in the match. That said, with seam and spin so evenly matched across the full game, the toss edge is modest. The data leans toward bowling first, but nothing is guaranteed.

Explore the Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium ground stats on Statz for the full picture.

Form and Table

Pakistan – 9th in the ICC World Test Championship (P9 W2 L7 D0, 4.63%)

Pakistan have lost their last 3. Their last 5 matches were all played away from home – a gruelling schedule that has taken its toll on their WTC standings. Here is how that run looks:

• 9 Sep 2026 vs England (A): L – PAK 133 & 449, ENG 453 & 130/2
• 27 Aug 2026 vs England (A): L – PAK 110 & 194, ENG 290 & 208
• 19 Aug 2026 vs England (A): L – PAK 171 & 135, ENG 409
• 2 Aug 2026 vs West Indies (A): W – PAK 387 & 77/2, WI 344 & 117
• 25 Jul 2026 vs West Indies (A): L – PAK 282 & 120, WI 311 & 181

Pakistan sit bottom of the WTC table with a points percentage of just 4.63% – a 19-point deduction has compounded their difficulties. A home Test against Sri Lanka is exactly the kind of fixture they need to arrest the slide.

Sri Lanka – 7th in the ICC World Test Championship (P6 W1 L2 D3, 33.33%)

Sri Lanka have drawn their last match. Their last 5 Tests were split between home and away assignments:

• 23 Aug 2026 vs India (H): D – SL 290 & 429/9, IND 503/9
• 15 Aug 2026 vs India (H): L – SL 283 & 206, IND 462 & 193
• 3 Jul 2026 vs West Indies (A): D – SL 549/9 & 251/9, WI 499 & 109/0
• 25 Jun 2026 vs West Indies (A): L – SL 308 & 101, WI 626/9
• 25 Jun 2025 vs Bangladesh (H): W – SL 458, BAN 247 & 133

Sri Lanka’s three draws reflect a side that can grind but has struggled to close out wins. Their 33.33% points percentage puts them in a reasonable mid-table position, and a win in Pakistan would be a significant statement.

Head-to-Head

Pakistan hold a commanding record against Sri Lanka in the ICC World Test Championship. In 6 meetings, Pakistan have won 4, Sri Lanka 1, with 1 draw. The last 5 meetings, newest first:

• 24 Jul 2023, Sinhalese Sports Club: Pakistan won by an innings and 222 runs
• 16 Jul 2023, Galle International Stadium: Pakistan won by 4 wickets
• 24 Jul 2022, R.Premadasa Stadium: Sri Lanka won by 246 runs
• 16 Jul 2022, Galle International Stadium: Pakistan won by 4 wickets
• 19 Dec 2019, National Stadium: Pakistan won by 263 runs

Pakistan’s dominance in this fixture is clear, though Sri Lanka’s 246-run win at the Premadasa shows they are capable of turning the tables. Among the top performers across those 6 meetings, Babar Azam leads Pakistan’s run-scorers with 349 runs in 6 matches, ahead of Salman Agha (282 runs, 4 matches) and Saud Shakeel (265 runs, 2 matches). With the ball, Shaheen Afridi leads with 15 wickets in 3 matches, while Abrar Ahmed has 7 wickets from 1 match and remains in the current squad. Note that Naseem Shah, who took 12 wickets in 4 meetings, is no longer in the current squad and will not feature here.

For Sri Lanka, Dhananjaya de Silva tops the run charts with 360 runs in 6 matches, followed by Dinesh Chandimal (267 runs, 6 matches) and Dimuth Karunaratne (171 runs, 6 matches). Prabath Jayasuriya leads the wicket column with 13 wickets in 4 matches, supported by Ramesh Mendis (12 wickets, 4 matches) and Lahiru Kumara (5 wickets, 1 match).

Statz Projections and Projected Score

The Statz projections give Pakistan a modest edge regardless of the toss, with a draw a genuine possibility in this Test.

If Pakistan bat first: Projected first-innings total of 346.9, match total of 1,086.7. Win probability – Pakistan 47.6%, Sri Lanka 34.7%, draw 17.7%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 165.7 to 566.9.

If Sri Lanka bat first: Projected first-innings total of 341.0, match total of 1,080.5. Win probability – Pakistan 47.5%, Sri Lanka 34.6%, draw 17.9%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 166.8 to 566.3.

The projected match total of 1,084 is 62.2 runs above the Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium average of 1,021.8. However, if Pakistan bat first their projected first innings of 346.9 is 33.4 runs below the ground’s first-innings average of 380.3; if Sri Lanka bat first their projected first innings of 341 is 39.3 runs below the ground’s first-innings average of 380.3. The model rates both bowling attacks as capable of keeping first-innings totals in check, even if the overall match total is expected to be a high-scoring affair. The wide P10-P90 range – 165 to 567 – underlines just how much variance a five-day Test can produce.

Season Leaders

All figures below cover the ICC World Test Championship 2025/2027 cycle.

Pakistan Season Leaders

Runs: Shan Masood – 546 runs, 68.25 a match, HS 112 | Babar Azam – 536 runs, 76.57 a match, HS 115 | Mohammad Rizwan – 409 runs, 51.13 a match, HS 107 | Salman Agha – 391 runs, 55.86 a match, HS 97 | Abdullah Shafique – 374 runs, 62.33 a match, HS 184

Wickets: Mohammad Abbas – 31 wickets, 5.17 a match, best 9 | Khurram Shahzad – 18 wickets, 4.5 a match, best 8 | Noman Ali – 18 wickets, 6.0 a match, best 10

Sri Lanka Season Leaders

Runs: Sonal Dinusha – 606 runs, 121.2 a match, HS 236 | Pathum Nissanka – 374 runs, 124.67 a match, HS 211 | Kamindu Mendis – 372 runs, 62.0 a match, HS 128 | Dhananjaya de Silva – 336 runs, 56.0 a match, HS 120 | Dinesh Chandimal – 326 runs, 65.2 a match, HS 97

Wickets: Asitha Fernando – 25 wickets, 4.17 a match, best 6 | Prabath Jayasuriya – 18 wickets, 3.6 a match, best 7 | Milan Rathnayake – 10 wickets, 3.33 a match, best 5

Predicted XIs

Pakistan (based on XI vs England, 09 Sep 2026)

1. Saim Ayub
2. Azan Awais
3. Abdullah Shafique
4. Shan Masood
5. Babar Azam (c)
6. Saud Shakeel
7. Ghazi Ghori (wk)
8. Mohammad Imran
9. Raza Ullah
10. Mohammad Abbas
11. Mohammad Ali

Sri Lanka (based on XI vs India, 23 Aug 2026)

1. Lahiru Udara
2. Kamil Mishara
3. Pasindu Sooriyabandara
4. Prabath Jayasuriya
5. Kamindu Mendis
6. Dhananjaya de Silva (c)
7. Sonal Dinusha
8. Niroshan Dickwella (wk)
9. Keshara Nuwantha
10. Lahiru Kumara
11. Asitha Fernando

These lineups are based on the most recent starting XI for each side. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.

Dream11 Captain and Vice Captain Picks

Based on projected fantasy points from the likely XIs:

Captain: Sonal Dinusha (SL) – projected 181.6 pts. Sri Lanka’s leading run-scorer in the WTC 2025/2027 cycle with 606 runs at 121.2 a match and a high score of 236. His all-round value – projected 97 runs and 1.56 wickets if Sri Lanka bat first – makes him the standout captain option.

Vice Captain: Mohammad Abbas (PAK) – projected 164.6 pts. Pakistan’s leading wicket-taker this cycle with 31 wickets at 5.17 a match. He has taken at least one wicket in 100% of his matches this cycle and 2+ wickets in 83.3% of them – a relentless performer at this level.

Also consider:

• Kamindu Mendis (SL) – projected 162.3 pts (Sri Lanka bat first) – 372 runs this cycle, 62.0 a match
• Babar Azam (PAK) – projected 156.2 pts – 536 runs this cycle, 76.57 a match, HS 115
• Raza Ullah (PAK) – projected 154.9 pts – a bowling option with projected 3.32 wickets if Pakistan bat first

Key Players

Sonal Dinusha (Sri Lanka)

The most prolific batter in Sri Lanka’s WTC 2025/2027 cycle. Dinusha has amassed 606 runs in 5 matches at 121.2 a match, with a high score of 236. His last three scores of 92, 100 and 103 show a player in remarkable consistency. He has scored 30 or more in 80% of his matches this cycle – a hit rate that makes him the most dangerous batter Sri Lanka will bring to Rawalpindi. His all-round contribution, with projected wickets in the Statz model, adds further value.

Mohammad Abbas (Pakistan)

Pakistan’s most reliable wicket-taker in the current WTC cycle. Abbas has 31 wickets from 6 matches at 5.17 a match, with a best of 9. He has taken at least one wicket in every match this cycle (100% hit rate) and 2 or more in 83.3% of them. His last three returns of 1, 4 and 1 wickets show he is always in the game. On a Rawalpindi surface where seam accounts for 48.4% of dismissals, Abbas is Pakistan’s most important bowler.

Asitha Fernando (Sri Lanka)

Sri Lanka’s leading wicket-taker in the WTC 2025/2027 cycle with 25 wickets from 6 matches at 4.17 a match, best figures of 6. Fernando has taken at least one wicket in 100% of his matches and 2 or more in every single one of them – a 100% hit rate at the 2-wicket mark. His last three returns of 5, 2 and 4 wickets underline his ability to cause damage in any conditions. On a pitch that offers seam bowlers almost as much as spinners, Fernando could be the difference.

Dhananjaya de Silva (Sri Lanka)

Sri Lanka’s captain and their most experienced performer in this fixture. De Silva has 360 runs in 6 WTC meetings against Pakistan and leads Sri Lanka’s run-scorers in the H2H record. This cycle he has scored 336 runs in 6 matches at 56.0 a match, with a high score of 120, and has scored 20 or more in 80% of his matches. His off-spin adds a bowling dimension on a surface where spin takes 48.8% of wickets.

Who Will Win Pakistan vs Sri Lanka?

Pakistan are the lean pick here. The Statz model gives Pakistan 47.6% if they bat first and 47.5% if they bowl first, against Sri Lanka’s 34.7% and 34.6% respectively, with the draw at 17.8%. This match can be drawn: 47.6% Pakistan, 34.7% Sri Lanka, 17.8% the draw.

Pakistan’s H2H dominance – 4 wins from 6 WTC meetings – and home conditions at Rawalpindi give them the edge, even if their recent form has been poor. Sri Lanka have shown resilience in draws against India and West Indies, and their batting depth through Dinusha, Mendis and de Silva means they will not be rolled over. The draw is a live result at 17.8% and should not be dismissed. Pakistan are favoured, but this is far from settled.

Betting Angles

There are no pre-computed best bets available for this fixture. For live hit rates and player props, head to the Statz bet builder. Based on the data, the following angles are worth monitoring:

• Mohammad Abbas 1+ wicket – 100% hit rate this cycle across 6 matches. He has not been wicketless in a single Test this WTC campaign.
• Mohammad Abbas 2+ wickets – 83.3% hit rate this cycle. Stepping up to two wickets still has strong backing from the data.
• Asitha Fernando 1+ wicket – 100% hit rate across 6 matches this cycle. Sri Lanka’s most consistent wicket-taker.
• Asitha Fernando 2+ wickets – 100% hit rate across 6 matches. An extraordinary consistency mark for a Test bowler.
• Babar Azam 20+ runs – 80% hit rate in his last 5 matches, 85.7% for the cycle. Pakistan’s second-highest run-scorer this WTC campaign.
• Dhananjaya de Silva 20+ runs – 80% hit rate in his last 5 matches, 83.3% for the cycle. Sri Lanka’s most experienced performer in this fixture.

Pakistan vs Sri Lanka Prediction FAQ

Q: Who will win Pakistan vs Sri Lanka in the 1st Test?

A: The Statz model leans Pakistan, giving them a 47.6% win probability against Sri Lanka’s 34.7%, with the draw at 17.8%. Pakistan’s H2H record and home conditions at Rawalpindi are the key factors, though nothing is guaranteed in a five-day Test.

Q: What is the projected score for Pakistan vs Sri Lanka?

A: If Pakistan bat first, the projected first-innings total is 346.9 and the match total is 1,086.7. If Sri Lanka bat first, the projected first innings is 341.0 and the match total is 1,080.5. Both projections sit below the ground’s first-innings average of 380.3.

Q: Who is favourite to win the toss at Rawalpindi?

A: The toss is a 50-50 call, but the venue data suggests bowling first could be the smarter decision – teams batting first have won just 28.6% of Tests at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium across 9 matches. Both sides gain only marginally from their preferred toss call according to the Statz model.

Q: Is Pakistan a good bet to win this Test?

A: Pakistan are the lean pick at 47.6% win probability, backed by a strong H2H record against Sri Lanka in the WTC. However, their recent form has been poor – three straight losses – and Sri Lanka’s batting depth makes this a competitive contest. The draw at 17.8% is also worth factoring in. Always check indicative odds before placing any bet.