Pakistan vs Sri Lanka ODI Prediction (31 Oct): Projections & Preview
Pakistan host Sri Lanka at the Gaddafi Stadium in Lahore for an ODI in the Tri-Nation Series on Saturday. First ball is at 13:00 PKT on Saturday 31 October (08:00 UK time, 13:30 IST). This is a crucial league fixture with both sides still in contention. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the Pakistan vs Sri Lanka fixture page on Statz.
The Venue and Toss Prediction
The Gaddafi Stadium has been a run-fest in ODI cricket. Across 10 matches here, the average match total stands at 502.1 with an average first-innings score of 278.2. Teams batting first have won exactly 50% of those games – a perfectly balanced toss proposition.
Seam bowlers have taken 62% of wickets at an economy of 6.06, while spinners have been more economical at 5.15 but account for 34.8% of dismissals. The pitch is tagged as Balanced by Statz. The most recent ODI at this ground saw Sri Lanka beat Pakistan by 8 wickets on 27 October 2026, chasing down 110 with 191 balls remaining – a dominant performance that sets the tone for this rematch.
The toss data suggests neither side gains a clear edge. Pakistan win 58.1% batting first and 59.1% bowling first – a marginal 1-point advantage to bowling first. Sri Lanka’s picture is identical: 37.9% batting first, 38.9% bowling first. Expect the captain to weigh up the pitch condition on the day rather than chase a statistical edge.
Form and Table
Pakistan – 1st (P4 W3 L1, 6 pts)
Pakistan lead the Tri-Nation Series table but have stumbled at a critical moment. They lost their last match to Sri Lanka at this very ground on 27 October, bowled out for 110 in just 25.3 overs. Before that, though, they won three straight – including a 37-run victory over Sri Lanka at Rawalpindi on 18 October and a 2-run win over England on 25 October:
- 27 Oct vs SL (H): L – PAK 110/10 (25.3), SL 114/2 (18.1)
- 25 Oct vs ENG (H): W – PAK 243/9 (47.1), ENG 241/10 (46.4)
- 20 Oct vs ENG (H): W – PAK 302/9 (50), ENG 215/10 (38.4)
- 18 Oct vs SL (H): W – PAK 305/10 (49.5), SL 268/10 (48.1)
- 4 Jun vs AUS (H): W – PAK 161/6 (41.5), AUS 157/10 (42)
Sri Lanka – 2nd (P3 W2 L1, 4 pts)
Sri Lanka have won their last two matches and sit second in the table, level on net run rate with England but ahead on wins. They beat Pakistan convincingly on 27 October, then pulled off a stunning chase against England at a neutral venue on 22 October, scoring 430/8 to win by 2 wickets:
- 27 Oct vs PAK (A): W – SL 114/2 (18.1), PAK 110/10 (25.3)
- 22 Oct vs ENG (N): W – SL 430/8 (49.5), ENG 429/4 (50)
- 18 Oct vs PAK (A): L – SL 268/10 (48.1), PAK 305/10 (49.5)
- 27 Sep vs ENG (A): L – SL 132/10 (29.1), ENG 355/7 (50)
- 24 Sep vs ENG (A): W – SL 321/6 (50), ENG 305/9 (50)
Standings Snapshot
| Pos | Team | P | W | L | Pts | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pakistan | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -0.114 |
| 2 | Sri Lanka | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1.255 |
| 3 | England | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -0.733 |
Pakistan hold top spot but their recent loss to Sri Lanka has tightened the race. Sri Lanka, with a game in hand and a superior net run rate, are very much in the hunt. This fixture could prove decisive in the final standings.
Head-to-Head
Pakistan dominate the all-time ODI record against Sri Lanka, leading 13-5 across 19 meetings in every competition. However, the recent form tells a different story. In their last five meetings, Pakistan have won three but Sri Lanka have claimed two – including the emphatic 8-wicket victory just four days ago at this ground.
The most recent clashes:
- 27 Oct 2026 at Gaddafi Stadium: Sri Lanka won by 8 wickets (with 191 balls remaining)
- 18 Oct 2026 at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium: Pakistan won by 37 runs
- 16 Nov 2025 at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium: Pakistan won by 6 wickets (with 32 balls remaining)
- 14 Nov 2025 at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium: Pakistan won by 8 wickets (with 10 balls remaining)
- 11 Nov 2025 at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium: Pakistan won by 6 runs
Among Pakistan’s leading performers in this fixture, Babar Azam has 727 runs across 13 meetings and Shadab Khan has taken 15 wickets across 3 matches. For Sri Lanka, Kusal Mendis has 305 runs in 9 meetings and Dilshan Madushanka has 9 wickets in just 1 match – a striking return.
Statz Projections and Projected Score
The Statz projections favour Pakistan, but Sri Lanka remain very much in the contest.
If Pakistan bat first: Projected first-innings total of 281, match total of 531.9. Win probability – PAK 58.1%, SL 38.9%, tie/no result 3%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 229 to 327.
If Sri Lanka bat first: Projected first-innings total of 268.7, match total of 519.8. Win probability – PAK 59.1%, SL 37.9%, tie/no result 3%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 205 to 324.
The projected match total of 526 is 23.9 runs above the Gaddafi Stadium average of 502.1, suggesting the model expects a high-scoring contest. If Pakistan bat first their projected first innings of 281 is 2.8 runs above the ground’s first-innings average of 278.2; if Sri Lanka bat first their projected first innings of 268.7 is 9.5 runs below the ground’s first-innings average of 278.2. Match total P10-P90 range: 456 to 596.
Season Leaders
Pakistan – Tri-Nation Series 2026
Runs: Salman Agha – 158 runs, 39.5 a match, HS 107 | Hasan Nawaz – 148 runs, 37 a match, HS 79 | Babar Azam – 118 runs, 29.5 a match, HS 45
Wickets: Arafat Minhas – 9 wickets, 2.25 a match | Shaheen Afridi – 8 wickets, 2 a match | Haris Rauf – 5 wickets, 1.25 a match
Sri Lanka – Tri-Nation Series 2026
Runs: Pavan Rathnayake – 232 runs, 77.33 a match, HS 130 | Dasun Shanaka – 125 runs, 41.67 a match, HS 97 | Kamindu Mendis – 124 runs, 41.33 a match, HS 62
Wickets: Dilshan Madushanka – 7 wickets, 2.33 a match | Eshan Malinga – 5 wickets, 1.67 a match | Asitha Fernando – 5 wickets, 1.67 a match
Predicted XIs
Pakistan (based on XI vs Sri Lanka, 27 Oct 2026)
- Fakhar Zaman
- Maaz Sadaqat
- Babar Azam
- Saad Baig (wk)
- Salman Agha
- Hasan Nawaz
- Shadab Khan
- Arafat Minhas
- Shaheen Afridi (c)
- Haris Rauf
- Naseem Shah
Sri Lanka (based on XI vs Pakistan, 27 Oct 2026)
- Kamindu Mendis
- Avishka Fernando
- Kusal Mendis (c) (wk)
- Pavan Rathnayake
- Janith Liyanage
- Dasun Shanaka
- Sahan Arachchige
- Dunith Wellalage
- Eshan Malinga
- Asitha Fernando
- Dilshan Madushanka
These lineups are based on the most recent match for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.
Dream11 Captain and Vice Captain Picks
Captain: Arafat Minhas (PAK) – projected 132 points. The all-rounder has been Pakistan’s standout performer this series with 9 wickets at 2.25 a match. His dual threat with bat and ball makes him the safest captain choice.
Vice Captain: Shaheen Afridi (PAK) – projected 97.8 points. Pakistan’s captain and leading seamer with 8 wickets this series, Shaheen provides consistent value across all formats.
Also consider:
- Pavan Rathnayake (SL) – projected 85.4 points – Sri Lanka’s standout batter with 232 runs at 77.33 a match, HS 130
- Dilshan Madushanka (SL) – projected 84.6 points – 7 wickets this series at 2.33 a match, a strike bowler
- Salman Agha (PAK) – projected 78.6 points – Pakistan’s leading run-scorer with 158 runs at 39.5 a match
Key Players
Pavan Rathnayake (Sri Lanka)
The Sri Lankan batter has been the standout performer in this Tri-Nation Series. With 232 runs at 77.33 a match and a high score of 130, Rathnayake sits top of the competition’s run-scoring charts. His hit rate of 100% for 20+ runs across his 3 matches this series is extraordinary – he has scored 20 or more in every single outing. Against Pakistan’s bowling attack, he will be a key threat.
Arafat Minhas (Pakistan)
Pakistan’s leading wicket-taker with 9 wickets at 2.25 a match this series. Minhas has taken 2 or more wickets in 50% of his matches and 1 or more in 75% – a bowler who consistently impacts the game. His all-round ability with the bat adds another dimension to Pakistan’s attack.
Dilshan Madushanka (Sri Lanka)
Sri Lanka’s strike bowler with 7 wickets in just 3 matches – a 2.33 per-match average that leads the away side. Madushanka has taken 2 or more wickets in 66.7% of his matches this series and 1 or more in 66.7%. His pace and aggression will be crucial to Sri Lanka’s chances.
Salman Agha (Pakistan)
Pakistan’s leading run-scorer with 158 runs at 39.5 a match. Agha has scored 20+ runs in 50% of his matches this series and 30+ runs in 50% – a consistent performer in the middle order who can accelerate when needed.
Conditions
Clear skies are forecast for the Gaddafi Stadium with temperatures around 28 degrees at the start and humidity at 41%. No rain is expected. Wind is light at 9 km/h from the west – ideal batting conditions throughout the day.
Who Will Win Pakistan vs Sri Lanka?
Pakistan are the pick at 58.6% to win, with Sri Lanka at 38.4% and a 3% tie/no result probability. The Statz model gives Pakistan a marginal edge, particularly if they bowl first (59.1% vs 37.9%). However, Sri Lanka’s recent form – two wins from their last two – and their stunning performance four days ago cannot be ignored. They chased down 110 with contemptuous ease and have shown they can compete with Pakistan on this ground.
Pakistan’s home advantage and table position favour them, but momentum is with Sri Lanka. Expect a tight contest decided by individual performances from Rathnayake, Minhas and Madushanka.
Betting Angles
Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time hit rates and odds on this fixture:
- Pavan Rathnayake 20+ runs – 100% season hit rate. He has scored 20 or more in every match this series – the most bankable batting line in this game.
- Arafat Minhas 1+ wicket – 75% season hit rate. Pakistan’s leading wicket-taker has been relentless with the ball.
- Dilshan Madushanka 2+ wickets – 66.7% season hit rate. Sri Lanka’s strike bowler has taken multiple wickets in two of his three matches.
- Salman Agha 20+ runs – 50% season hit rate. Pakistan’s leading run-scorer has been consistent in the middle order.
Pakistan vs Sri Lanka Prediction FAQ
Q: Who will win Pakistan vs Sri Lanka?
A: Pakistan are the pick at 58.6% to win this ODI, with Sri Lanka at 38.4% and a 3% tie/no result probability. Pakistan’s home advantage and table position favour them, but Sri Lanka’s recent form – including a dominant 8-wicket win here four days ago – makes this a competitive fixture.
Q: What is the projected score?
A: The projected match total is 526 runs, which is 23.9 runs above the Gaddafi Stadium average of 502.1. If Pakistan bat first, expect a first-innings total around 281; if Sri Lanka bat first, around 268.7.
Q: Who is favourite to win the toss?
A: Neither side gains a clear toss advantage at this ground. Pakistan win 58.1% batting first and 59.1% bowling first – a marginal 1-point edge to bowling first. Sri Lanka’s picture is identical. The captain will likely weigh up the pitch condition on the day rather than chase a statistical edge.
Q: Is Pakistan a good bet?
A: Pakistan are favoured at 58.6%, but Sri Lanka’s recent form and their 8-wicket victory here four days ago suggest they are underrated. The match is competitive and worth monitoring for value, particularly if the odds favour Pakistan heavily.