Pakistan vs Sri Lanka ODI Prediction (27 Oct): Projections & Preview

Pakistan host Sri Lanka at the Gaddafi Stadium in Lahore for an ODI in the Tri-Nation Series on Tuesday 27 October 2026. First ball is at 13:00 PKT on Tuesday 27 October (08:00 UK time, 13:30 IST). Pakistan sit top of the table on 4 points from 2 matches, while Sri Lanka are second on 2 points. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the Pakistan vs Sri Lanka fixture page on Statz.

The Venue and Toss Prediction

The Gaddafi Stadium is a high-scoring venue. Across 10 ODI matches here, the average match total stands at 531.6 with an average first-innings score of 278.3. Teams batting first have won exactly 50% of those games – the toss offers no edge either way at this ground.

Seam bowlers have taken 60.1% of wickets at an economy rate of 6.14, while spinners have been more economical at 5.34 but account for 34.6% of dismissals. The pitch is tagged as Balanced by Statz. Pakistan’s record here since 2021 reads 3 wins from 5 matches, with Babar Azam their leading run-scorer across those games with 332 runs. Sri Lanka have not played an ODI at this venue in the Statz data window.

Pakistan win 58% batting first and 59.6% bowling first – a marginal edge to bowling first by 1.6 points. Sri Lanka win 37.4% batting first and 39% bowling first, also favouring bowling first by 1.6 points. The toss leans slightly towards the side that bowls first, though the advantage is minimal.

Form and Table

Pakistan – 1st (P2 W2 L0, 4 pts)

Pakistan have won their last 3 and sit top of the Tri-Nation Series table. All five of their recent matches were played at home:

• 20 Oct vs England (H): W – PAK 302/9, ENG 215/10
• 18 Oct vs Sri Lanka (H): W – PAK 305/10, SL 268/10
• 4 Jun vs Australia (H): W – PAK 161/6, AUS 157/10
• 2 Jun vs Australia (H): L – PAK 190/10, AUS 231/9
• 30 May vs Australia (H): W – PAK 202/5, AUS 200/10

Sri Lanka – 2nd (P2 W1 L1, 2 pts)

Sri Lanka have won their last match after a mixed run. One of their last five was played at a neutral venue, four away:

• 22 Oct vs England (N): W – SL 430/8, ENG 429/4
• 18 Oct vs Pakistan (A): L – SL 268/10, PAK 305/10
• 27 Sep vs England (A): L – SL 132/10, ENG 355/7
• 24 Sep vs England (A): W – SL 321/6, ENG 305/9
• 22 Sep vs England (A): L – SL 176/10, ENG 265/10

Head-to-Head

Pakistan dominate this fixture. In 18 ODI meetings across all competitions, Pakistan have won 13 to Sri Lanka’s 4, with one no-result. The most recent clash came on 18 October 2026 at Rawalpindi, where Pakistan won by 37 runs – a match Pakistan won comfortably in this very series.

From the sides’ last five meetings, Pakistan have won four and Sri Lanka one. The last five meetings, newest first:

• 18 Oct 2026 at Rawalpindi – Pakistan won by 37 runs
• 16 Nov 2025 at Rawalpindi – Pakistan won by 6 wickets (with 32 balls remaining)
• 14 Nov 2025 at Rawalpindi – Pakistan won by 8 wickets (with 10 balls remaining)
• 11 Nov 2025 at Rawalpindi – Pakistan won by 6 runs
• 10 Oct 2023 at Rajiv Gandhi International Cricket Stadium – Pakistan won by 6 wickets (with 10 balls remaining)

Pakistan’s leading run-scorer in this fixture is Babar Azam with 698 runs from 12 matches; Fakhar Zaman has 420 from 11. For Sri Lanka, Kusal Mendis (297 runs, 8 matches) is among the active squad, though Lahiru Thirimanne’s 420 runs from 10 matches is history. Shadab Khan has taken 15 wickets for Pakistan in this fixture; Haris Rauf has 13.

Statz Projections and Projected Score

The Statz projections favour Pakistan across both scenarios.

If Pakistan bat first: Projected first-innings total of 280.7, match total of 531. Win probability – Pakistan 58%, Sri Lanka 39%, tie/no-result 3%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 228 to 326.

If Sri Lanka bat first: Projected first-innings total of 268.5, match total of 519.4. Win probability – Pakistan 59.6%, Sri Lanka 37.4%, tie/no-result 3%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 202 to 323.

The projected match total of 525 is 6.6 runs below the Gaddafi Stadium average of 531.6. If Pakistan bat first their projected first innings of 280.7 is 2.4 runs above the ground’s first-innings average of 278.3; if Sri Lanka bat first their projected first innings of 268.5 is 9.8 runs below the ground’s first-innings average of 278.3. Match total P10-P90 range: 262 to 349.

Season Leaders

Pakistan – Tri-Nation Series 2026

Runs: Salman Agha – 123 runs, 61.5 a match, HS 107 | Hasan Nawaz – 116 runs, 58 a match, HS 79 | Babar Azam – 79 runs, 39.5 a match, HS 45

Wickets: Arafat Minhas – 6 wickets, 3 a match | Haris Rauf – 4 wickets, 2 a match | Shaheen Afridi – 3 wickets, 1.5 a match

Sri Lanka – Tri-Nation Series 2026

Runs: Pavan Rathnayake – 209 runs, 104.5 a match, HS 130 | Dasun Shanaka – 125 runs, 62.5 a match, HS 97 | Janith Liyanage – 121 runs, 60.5 a match, HS 61

Wickets: Eshan Malinga – 4 wickets, 2 a match | Asitha Fernando – 4 wickets, 2 a match | Dunith Wellalage – 2 wickets, 2 a match

Predicted XIs

Pakistan (based on XI vs England, 20 Oct 2026)

1. Fakhar Zaman
2. Saim Ayub
3. Babar Azam
4. Saad Baig (wk)
5. Salman Agha
6. Hasan Nawaz
7. Arafat Minhas
8. Faheem Ashraf
9. Shaheen Afridi (c)
10. Naseem Shah
11. Haris Rauf

Sri Lanka (based on XI vs England, 22 Oct 2026)

1. Kamindu Mendis
2. Avishka Fernando
3. Kusal Mendis (c, wk)
4. Pavan Rathnayake
5. Dasun Shanaka
6. Janith Liyanage
7. Sahan Arachchige
8. Dunith Wellalage
9. Eshan Malinga
10. Asitha Fernando
11. Dilshan Madushanka

These lineups are based on the most recent matches for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.

Dream11 Captain and Vice Captain Picks

Captain: Arafat Minhas (PAK) – projected 155.9 points. The all-rounder has taken 6 wickets in 2 matches this series and provides value across batting and bowling. His 2.64 projected wickets and 25.7 projected runs make him a dual-threat captain choice.

Vice Captain: Abrar Ahmed (PAK) – projected 96.8 points. The spinner offers economy and wicket-taking potential with 1.9 projected wickets and an economy rate of 4.55.

Also consider:

• Pavan Rathnayake (SL) – projected 84.7 to 90.3 points – 209 runs this series, 104.5 a match
• Shaheen Afridi (PAK) – projected 97.4 points – 1.82 projected wickets with economy of 5.48
• Salman Agha (PAK) – projected 82 to 88.8 points – 123 runs this series at 61.5 a match

Key Players

Pavan Rathnayake (Sri Lanka)

The Sri Lankan batter has been the standout performer of the Tri-Nation Series. With 209 runs from 2 matches at an average of 104.5 and a high score of 130, Rathnayake sits top of the competition’s run-scoring charts. His last two scores of 79 and 130 show a player in devastating touch. The Statz projections show him at 46.9 to 50.3 runs depending on batting order – a genuine match-winner.

Arafat Minhas (Pakistan)

Pakistan’s leading wicket-taker this series with 6 wickets from 2 matches – 3 a match. The all-rounder has also contributed 77 runs at 38.5 a match, making him a genuine dual threat. His 2.64 projected wickets and 25.7 projected runs show a player capable of winning matches on both sides of the ball. A key figure in Pakistan’s unbeaten start.

Shaheen Afridi (Pakistan)

Pakistan’s captain brings world-class seam bowling to the attack. With 3 wickets from 2 matches and an economy rate of 5.48, Shaheen has been economical. The Statz projections show 1.82 wickets and 9.6 projected runs – a bowler in control of his craft who can also contribute with the bat in the lower order.

Dasun Shanaka (Sri Lanka)

Sri Lanka’s all-rounder has 125 runs from 2 matches at 62.5 a match with a high score of 97. Shanaka provides balance and aggression in the middle order, with the projections showing 21.5 to 23 runs depending on batting order. A key player in Sri Lanka’s bid to upset Pakistan on home soil.

Who Will Win Pakistan vs Sri Lanka?

Pakistan are strong favourites. The Statz projections make Pakistan 58-59.6% to win depending on who bats first, with Sri Lanka at 37.4-39%. Pakistan’s unbeaten record in this series, their dominance in the head-to-head (13-4), and home advantage at the Gaddafi Stadium all point to a Pakistan victory. Sri Lanka’s recent form is mixed – they beat England convincingly but lost to Pakistan just days ago at the same venue.

Pakistan’s pick with 58.8% win probability is the strong call here.

Betting Angles

Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time odds on this fixture. With no best bets currently available, focus on the projections: Pavan Rathnayake’s 46.9-50.3 projected runs make him a standout batter option, while Arafat Minhas’ 2.64 projected wickets and all-round contribution offer value in the bowling markets.

Pakistan vs Sri Lanka Prediction FAQ

Q: Who will win Pakistan vs Sri Lanka?

A: Pakistan are strong favourites at 58.8% win probability. They sit top of the table unbeaten, lead the head-to-head 13-4, and have home advantage at the Gaddafi Stadium. Sri Lanka are at 38.2% despite their recent win over England.

Q: What is the projected score?

A: The projected match total is 525 runs. If Pakistan bat first, expect around 280.7 in the first innings and 531 overall; if Sri Lanka bat first, around 268.5 in the first innings and 519.4 overall.

Q: Who is favourite to win the toss?

A: The toss offers no advantage at the Gaddafi Stadium – teams batting first have won exactly 50% of matches here. Both sides gain a marginal 1.6-point edge by bowling first, but the difference is minimal.

Q: Is Pakistan a good bet?

A: Pakistan’s 58.8% win probability reflects their genuine strength in this fixture. They are unbeaten in the series, dominate the head-to-head, and have won their last 3 matches. However, nothing is guaranteed – Sri Lanka showed against England that they can produce big performances.