Pakistan vs Sri Lanka ODI Prediction (18 Oct): Projections & Preview

Pakistan host Sri Lanka at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium on Sunday for an ODI in the Tri-Nation Series. First ball is at 13:00 PKT on Sunday 18 October (09:00 UK time, 13:30 IST).

This is the opening match of the triangular tournament, so neither side has played in it yet. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the Pakistan vs Sri Lanka fixture page on Statz.

The Venue and Toss Prediction

Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium is a batting-friendly ground. Across the last 10 ODIs here, the average match total stands at 523.1 runs, with an average first-innings score of 278.9. The pitch is tagged as Balanced by Statz. Seam bowlers have accounted for 72.4% of wickets at an economy of 5.44, while spinners have taken 24.6% at 5.47 – a marginal edge to pace.

Pakistan’s record at this ground since 2021 is formidable: six wins from seven matches, with an average total of 272.2. Sri Lanka, by contrast, have struggled here – three visits, three defeats, averaging just 264 runs. The toss carries real weight. Pakistan win 54.1% batting first but improve to 60.6% bowling first – a 6.5-point edge to chasing. Sri Lanka show the same pattern: 36.4% batting first, 42.9% bowling first. Bowling first at Rawalpindi is the call the data favours.

Form and Table

Pakistan (P0 W0 L0, 0 pts)

Pakistan have won their last match. Their recent form shows a mixed run: a win over Australia in Lahore on 4 June, a loss to Australia in Lahore on 2 June, and a win over them here at Rawalpindi on 30 May. Before that, in Mirpur in March, they lost to Bangladesh on the 15th after beating them on the 13th. The side is battle-hardened and playing at home:

• 4 Jun vs AUS (H): W – PAK 161/6, AUS 157/10
• 2 Jun vs AUS (H): L – PAK 190/10, AUS 231/9
• 30 May vs AUS (H): W – PAK 202/5, AUS 200/10
• 15 Mar vs BAN (A): L – PAK 279/10, BAN 290/5
• 13 Mar vs BAN (A): W – PAK 274/10, BAN 114/10

Sri Lanka (P0 W0 L0, 0 pts)

Sri Lanka have lost their last match. Their recent record is concerning – two defeats to England away in late September sandwiching a win at Leeds. Before that came two no-results against West Indies in June. The side has been on the road and has not found consistent form:

• 27 Sep vs ENG (A): L – SL 132/10, ENG 355/7
• 24 Sep vs ENG (A): W – SL 321/6, ENG 305/9
• 22 Sep vs ENG (A): L – SL 176/10, ENG 265/10
• 8 Jun vs WI (A): NR
• 6 Jun vs WI (A): NR

Head-to-Head

Pakistan dominate this fixture. In 17 ODI meetings across all competitions, Pakistan have won 12 to Sri Lanka’s four, with one no-result. The most recent encounters tell the story: Pakistan won twice at Rawalpindi in November 2025 – by 8 wickets on 14 November and by 6 wickets on 16 November – and won by 6 runs on 11 November at the same venue. Sri Lanka’s last win came in September 2023 at the R.Premadasa Stadium.

Among Pakistan’s leading run-scorers in this head-to-head, Babar Azam has 653 runs from 11 matches, while Fakhar Zaman has 404 from 10. For Sri Lanka, Kusal Mendis is the leading current-squad run-scorer with 279 runs from 7 matches. Pakistan’s Shadab Khan has taken 15 wickets in this fixture, a dominant all-round threat.

Statz Projections and Projected Score

The Statz projections favour Pakistan across both scenarios.

If Pakistan bat first: Projected first-innings total of 292.6, match total of 562.5. Win probability – PAK 54.1%, SL 42.9%, tie/NR 3%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 247 to 335.

If Sri Lanka bat first: Projected first-innings total of 287.4, match total of 557.2. Win probability – PAK 60.6%, SL 36.4%, tie/NR 3%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 235 to 333.

The projected match total of 560 is 36.9 runs above the Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium average of 523.1. Both projected first-innings totals sit above the ground average of 278.9 – Pakistan’s by 13.7 runs if they bat first, Sri Lanka’s by 8.5 runs. Match total P10-P90 range: 495 to 619.

Season Leaders

This is a season opener for the Tri-Nation Series 2026, so no matches have been played yet. Neither side has accumulated runs or wickets in this tournament. The focus falls on career form and recent ODI performances heading into this fixture.

Predicted XIs

This is a season opener with no confirmed XI yet. The likely lineups from the verified squad lists are:

Pakistan (likely XI)

1. Fakhar Zaman
2. Babar Azam
3. Shadab Khan
4. Faheem Ashraf
5. Shaheen Afridi
6. Salman Agha
7. Naseem Shah
8. Haris Rauf
9. Saim Ayub
10. Abrar Ahmed
11. Arafat Minhas

Sri Lanka (likely XI)

1. Kusal Mendis
2. Pathum Nissanka
3. Avishka Fernando
4. Kamindu Mendis
5. Dasun Shanaka
6. Sahan Arachchige
7. Dunith Wellalage
8. Sachindu Colombage
9. Dilshan Madushanka
10. Dushmantha Chameera
11. Asitha Fernando

These are likely lineups from the verified squad lists for this season opener. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.

Dream11 Captain and Vice Captain Picks

Based on projected fantasy points from the likely XIs:

Captain: Arafat Minhas (PAK) – projected 119.4 points. The all-rounder brings genuine value across batting and bowling, with projected runs of 20 and 1.88 wickets, making him the highest-rated fantasy asset in this match.

Vice Captain: Shaheen Afridi (PAK) – projected 101.8 points. Pakistan’s premier fast bowler with 1.93 projected wickets and the ability to contribute with the bat lower down the order.

Also consider:

• Saim Ayub (PAK) – projected 102.4 points – 40.2 projected runs at a strike rate of 100.2
• Shadab Khan (PAK) – projected 90.8 points – 28.2 projected runs plus 0.9 wickets
• Sahan Arachchige (SL) – projected 91.9 points – 22.8 projected runs and 1 wicket

Key Players

Babar Azam (Pakistan)

Pakistan’s anchor and one of world cricket’s premier run-scorers. In the head-to-head against Sri Lanka, Babar has 653 runs from 11 matches. His ability to construct innings and accelerate when needed makes him the cornerstone of Pakistan’s batting. At Rawalpindi, he will be expected to dominate.

Shaheen Afridi (Pakistan)

Pakistan’s spearhead with 1.93 projected wickets in this match. Shaheen’s pace and swing make him lethal in the powerplay and at the death. He will be key to Pakistan’s bowling attack at Rawalpindi.

Kusal Mendis (Sri Lanka)

Sri Lanka’s most reliable run-scorer in this fixture, with 279 runs from 7 ODI meetings against Pakistan. Mendis has shown the ability to play both aggressive and accumulative innings. He is Sri Lanka’s best hope of building a competitive total at Rawalpindi.

Shadab Khan (Pakistan)

The all-rounder has been Pakistan’s standout performer against Sri Lanka in recent years, taking 15 wickets in head-to-head meetings. His leg-spin and lower-order hitting provide balance and match-winning potential. Projected for 28.2 runs and 0.9 wickets, Shadab is a dual threat.

Who Will Win Pakistan vs Sri Lanka?

Pakistan are the clear favourites. The Statz projections give them a 57.4% win probability to Sri Lanka’s 39.7%, with 3% for a tie or no-result. Pakistan’s home record at Rawalpindi is exceptional – six wins from seven matches since 2021 – and their recent form, though mixed, includes a win over Australia at this ground in May. Sri Lanka have lost all three visits here and come into this match on the back of a heavy defeat to England.

The head-to-head record is one-sided: Pakistan have won 12 of the last 17 ODI meetings, including the last three at Rawalpindi. Bowling first suits Pakistan more (60.6% win probability) than batting first (54.1%), so if they win the toss they should consider chasing.

Betting Angles

Sri Lanka are available at indicative odds of 3.0 with Midnite, representing a 33.3% implied probability against Statz’s 36.5% projection – a small edge of 3.2 percentage points. Alternative books price them at 2.75 (bet365), 2.87 (Coral, Ladbrokes, Boylesports). The value sits with Sri Lanka at the longer odds, though Pakistan remain the statistical favourite.

Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time hit rates and odds on individual player performances in this fixture.

Pakistan vs Sri Lanka Prediction FAQ

Q: Who will win Pakistan vs Sri Lanka?

A: Pakistan are favoured at 57.4% to 39.7%. They have won 12 of the last 17 ODI meetings, including three straight at Rawalpindi in November 2025. Their home record here is six wins from seven matches since 2021, while Sri Lanka have lost all three visits.

Q: What is the projected score?

A: The projected match total is 560 runs, 36.9 above the Rawalpindi average of 523.1. If Pakistan bat first, expect around 292.6 in the first innings; if Sri Lanka bat first, around 287.4. Both are above the ground average of 278.9.

Q: Who is favourite to win the toss?

A: The toss data favours bowling first. Pakistan win 60.6% bowling first versus 54.1% batting first – a 6.5-point edge to chasing. Sri Lanka show the same pattern: 42.9% bowling first, 36.4% batting first. Whoever wins the toss should consider bowling.

Q: Is Pakistan a good bet?

A: Pakistan are the statistical favourite at 57.4% win probability, backed by a dominant head-to-head record and an exceptional home record at Rawalpindi. However, they are priced as short favourites by the bookmakers. Sri Lanka offer value at 3.0 (Midnite) or 2.87 (Coral, Ladbrokes) if you believe they can upset the odds.