Pakistan vs Sri Lanka 2nd T20I Prediction (11 Oct): Projections & Preview

Pakistan host Sri Lanka in the 2nd T20I at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium on Sunday. First ball is at 20:00 PKT on Sunday 11 October (16:00 UK time, 20:30 IST). Pakistan won the first match by 4 wickets on 9 October and will be looking to seal the series with another strong performance at home. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the Pakistan vs Sri Lanka fixture page on Statz.

The Venue and Toss Prediction

Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium is a batting paradise. Across the last 6 T20 matches here, the average match total stands at 314.5 and the average first-innings score is 156.8. Teams batting first have won only 20% of those games – a strong toss advantage for Sri Lanka if they can bowl first.

Seam bowlers have taken 53.4% of wickets at an economy rate of 8.88, while spinners have been more economical at 7.91 and account for 42.5% of dismissals. The pitch is tagged as a batting paradise by Statz. The most recent T20 at this ground saw Pakistan beat Sri Lanka by 4 wickets on 9 October 2026 (PAK 187/6, SL 182/8).

Pakistan gain a clear edge if they bowl first – they win 61.5% in that scenario compared to 56.7% batting first. Sri Lanka’s win probability improves from 36.5% to 41.3% when they bowl first, a 4.8-point swing that underlines the toss advantage at this venue.

Form and Table

Pakistan – 6th in ICC T20I Rankings (Rating 240)

Pakistan have won their last match. Their last 5 matches were played: 1 home, 3 neutral, 1 away.

• 9 Oct vs SL (H): W – PAK 187/6 (18.5), SL 182/8 (20)
• 3 Oct vs IND (N): L – PAK 192/6 (20), IND 211/6 (20)
• 1 Oct vs BAN (N): W – PAK 112/4 (11.3), BAN 111/7 (13)
• 28 Feb vs SL (A): W – PAK 212/8 (20), SL 207/6 (20)
• 24 Feb vs ENG (N): L – PAK 164/9 (20), ENG 166/8 (19.1)

Sri Lanka – 9th in ICC T20I Rankings (Rating 221)

Sri Lanka have lost their last match. Their last 5 matches were played: 3 away, 2 neutral.

• 9 Oct vs PAK (A): L – SL 182/8 (20), PAK 187/6 (18.5)
• 3 Oct vs BAN (N): W – SL 165/9 (20), BAN 102/10 (17.3)
• 1 Oct vs IND (N): L – SL 45/10 (9.5), IND 169/7 (20)
• 19 Sep vs ENG (A): L – SL 124/10 (18.5), ENG 126/2 (9.4)
• 17 Sep vs ENG (A): L – SL 145/9 (20), ENG 146/4 (12.1)

Head-to-Head

Pakistan hold the edge in recent T20I history against Sri Lanka. In 7 meetings in T20 Internationals, Pakistan have won 2 while Sri Lanka have won 4, with 1 no result. The most recent clash came on 9 October 2026 at Rawalpindi, where Pakistan chased down 182/8 with a 4-wicket victory. Before that, Sri Lanka won by 14 runs at Rangiri Dambulla on 11 January 2026, but Pakistan had won the match immediately before that on 7 January 2026 by 6 wickets.

Pakistan’s leading run-scorer in this fixture is Sahibzada Farhan with 385 runs from 8 matches. Fakhar Zaman has 150 runs from 10 meetings. For Sri Lanka, Dasun Shanaka leads with 238 runs from 14 matches, while Kamil Mishara has 209 runs from 7 meetings.

With the ball, Abrar Ahmed has taken 12 wickets for Pakistan in this fixture, while Wanindu Hasaranga leads Sri Lanka’s attack with 23 wickets from 10 matches.

Statz Projections and Projected Score

The Statz projections favour Pakistan across both scenarios.

If Pakistan bat first: Projected first-innings total of 162.2, match total of 306.9. Win probability – PAK 56.7%, SL 41.3%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 138 to 186.

If Sri Lanka bat first: Projected first-innings total of 152.3, match total of 297.6. Win probability – PAK 61.5%, SL 36.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 118 to 182.

The projected match total of 302 is 12.5 runs below the Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium average of 314.5, suggesting the model rates both bowling attacks highly. If Pakistan bat first their projected first innings of 162.2 is 5.4 runs above the ground’s first-innings average of 156.8; if Sri Lanka bat first their projected first innings of 152.3 is 4.5 runs below the ground’s first-innings average of 156.8. Match total P10-P90 range: 268 to 335.

Season Leaders

Pakistan – T20 Internationals 2026

Runs: Saim Ayub – 207 runs, 25.88 a match, HS 56 | Salman Agha – 181 runs, 36.2 a match, HS 76 | Sahibzada Farhan – 165 runs, 23.57 a match, HS 89

Wickets: Abrar Ahmed – 10 wickets, 1.25 a match | Mohammad Nawaz – 8 wickets, 1.6 a match | Shadab Khan – 7 wickets, 1.17 a match

Sri Lanka – T20 Internationals 2026

Runs: Pathum Nissanka – 228 runs, 20.73 a match, HS 37 | Dasun Shanaka – 225 runs, 18.75 a match, HS 58 | Kusal Mendis – 212 runs, 23.56 a match, HS 37

Wickets: Wanindu Hasaranga – 14 wickets, 1.4 a match | Dushmantha Chameera – 13 wickets, 1.63 a match | Eshan Malinga – 8 wickets, 0.8 a match

Predicted XIs

Pakistan (based on XI vs Sri Lanka, 09 Oct 2026)

1. Sahibzada Farhan (c)
2. Fakhar Zaman
3. Maaz Sadaqat
4. Hasan Nawaz
5. Saim Ayub
6. Khawaja Nafay (wk)
7. Shadab Khan
8. Mohammad Imran Randhawa
9. Raza Ullah
10. Naseem Shah
11. Abrar Ahmed

Sri Lanka (based on XI vs Pakistan, 09 Oct 2026)

1. Lahiru Udara
2. Kusal Mendis (c, wk)
3. Kamil Mishara
4. Kamindu Mendis
5. Sahan Arachchige
6. Dasun Shanaka
7. Dunith Wellalage
8. Maheesh Theekshana
9. Dushmantha Chameera
10. Eshan Malinga
11. Nuwan Thushara

These lineups are based on the most recent match for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.

Dream11 Captain and Vice Captain Picks

Captain: Shadab Khan (PAK) – projected 116.8 points. The all-rounder provides value across all three disciplines with projected runs of around 23.7, nearly 1.5 wickets per game and regular catching contributions. His leg-spin and lower-order hitting make him the safest captain choice.

Vice Captain: Saim Ayub (PAK) – projected 83.5 points. Pakistan’s most consistent batter this season with 207 runs at 25.88 a match. A 75% hit rate for 20+ runs makes him a bankable vice-captain pick.

Also consider:

• Babar Azam (PAK) – projected 79.1 points – 40.4 projected runs with strike rate of 133.6
• Wanindu Hasaranga (SL) – projected 89 points – 14 projected runs and 1.43 projected wickets
• Kusal Mendis (SL) – projected 72 points – 36.2 projected runs with 66.7% hit rate for 30+

Key Players

Saim Ayub (Pakistan)

Pakistan’s most consistent run-scorer this season with 207 runs at 25.88 a match. Ayub has hit 20+ runs in 75% of his matches this season, with an 80% hit rate in his last 5 games. His opening partnership with Fakhar Zaman sets the tone for Pakistan’s innings, and his aggressive approach on a batting paradise like Rawalpinski will be crucial.

Wanindu Hasaranga (Sri Lanka)

Sri Lanka’s leading wicket-taker this season with 14 wickets at 1.4 a match. Hasaranga has taken 1+ wicket in 70% of his matches this season and 2+ wickets in 40% of games. His leg-spin will be tested on a batting paradise, but his ability to pick up crucial breakthroughs makes him a match-winner.

Abrar Ahmed (Pakistan)

Pakistan’s leading wicket-taker this season with 10 wickets at 1.25 a match. Ahmed has taken 1+ wicket in 37.5% of his matches and 2+ wickets in 37.5% of games. His off-spin will be key to containing Sri Lanka’s middle order on a pitch that may offer some turn.

Kusal Mendis (Sri Lanka)

Sri Lanka’s captain and wicketkeeper with 212 runs at 23.56 a match this season. Mendis has hit 30+ runs in 55.6% of his matches and 20+ runs in 66.7% of games. His leadership and batting prowess will be vital if Sri Lanka are to level the series.

Conditions

Clear skies are forecast for Rawalpindi with temperatures around 22 degrees at the start and humidity at 78%. No rain is expected. Wind is light at 6 km/h from the west – comfortable conditions for cricket throughout the evening.

Who Will Win Pakistan vs Sri Lanka?

Pakistan are strong favourites. The Statz model gives Pakistan a 59.1% win probability, with Sri Lanka at 38.9%. Pakistan’s home advantage, their recent form (won their last match), and the toss dynamics at Rawalpindi all favour them. They win 61.5% when they bowl first – a significant edge if they can get the toss right.

Sri Lanka’s loss in the first match and their recent struggles away from home (three losses in their last five) make this an uphill battle. However, Wanindu Hasaranga’s 14 wickets this season and the experience of their middle order mean they cannot be written off.

Betting Angles

Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time hit rates and odds on this fixture:

• Saim Ayub 20+ runs – 75% season hit rate, 80% in his last 5 matches. Pakistan’s most consistent batter on a batting paradise.
• Wanindu Hasaranga 1+ wicket – 70% season hit rate. Sri Lanka’s leading wicket-taker in a must-win match.
• Salman Agha 30+ runs – 60% season hit rate. Pakistan’s third-ranked run-scorer with a strike rate of 133.6.
• Kusal Mendis 20+ runs – 66.7% season hit rate. Sri Lanka’s captain with 212 runs this season.

Pakistan vs Sri Lanka Prediction FAQ

Q: Who will win Pakistan vs Sri Lanka?

A: Pakistan are strong favourites at 59.1% win probability. They have home advantage, won the first match, and the toss dynamics at Rawalpindi favour bowling first – a scenario where Pakistan win 61.5%.

Q: What is the projected score?

A: The projected match total is 302 runs. If Pakistan bat first, the projected first-innings total is 162.2; if Sri Lanka bat first, it is 152.3. Both scenarios sit below the Rawalpindi average of 314.5.

Q: Who is favourite to win the toss?

A: The toss is neutral, but the data shows a clear advantage for the side that bowls first at Rawalpindi. Pakistan win 61.5% bowling first compared to 56.7% batting first – a 4.8-point swing. Sri Lanka also improve from 36.5% to 41.3% when they bowl first.

Q: Is Pakistan a good bet?

A: Pakistan’s 59.1% win probability and home advantage make them a solid favourite. Their recent form, the toss dynamics, and Saim Ayub’s consistency (75% hit rate for 20+ runs) all support backing them, but Sri Lanka’s bowling attack – led by Wanindu Hasaranga – means nothing is guaranteed.