Pakistan vs England ODI Prediction (25 Oct): Projections & Preview

Pakistan host England at Gaddafi Stadium in Lahore for an ODI in the Tri-Nation Series. First ball is at 13:00 PKT on Sunday 25 October (08:00 UK time, 13:30 IST). Pakistan sit top of the table after two wins; England are winless and bottom after two defeats. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the Pakistan vs England fixture page on Statz.

The Venue and Toss Prediction

Gaddafi Stadium is a run-fest. Across the last 10 ODIs here, the average match total stands at 531.6 and the average first-innings score is 278.4. Teams batting first have won exactly 50% of those games – no toss advantage to speak of.

Seam bowlers have taken 60.1% of wickets at an economy rate of 6.14, while spinners have been more economical at 5.34 but account for 34.6% of dismissals. The pitch is tagged as Balanced by Statz. Pakistan’s record at this ground since 2021 reads W3 L2 from five matches, with Babar Azam their leading run-scorer on 332 runs. England have visited twice and lost both, averaging 334 runs but unable to close out either game.

The toss leans marginally towards bowling first. Pakistan win 41.3% batting first and 42.3% bowling first; England win 54.7% batting first and 55.7% bowling first – a 1-point edge for both sides if they bowl first, though neither is decisive.

Form and Table

Pakistan – 1st (P2 W2 L0, 4 pts)

Pakistan have won their last 3 and sit atop the Tri-Nation Series table. All five of their recent matches were played at home, and they have been ruthless:

• 20 Oct vs England (H): W – PAK 302/9, ENG 215/10
• 18 Oct vs Sri Lanka (H): W – PAK 305/10, SL 268/10
• 4 Jun vs Australia (H): W – PAK 161/6, AUS 157/10
• 2 Jun vs Australia (H): L – PAK 190/10, AUS 231/9
• 30 May vs Australia (H): W – PAK 202/5, AUS 200/10

England – 3rd (P2 W0 L2, 0 pts)

England have lost their last 2 and sit bottom of the table. Their recent record is mixed – three wins in September against Sri Lanka at home, but two defeats in October have derailed their campaign:

• 22 Oct vs Sri Lanka (N): L – ENG 429/4, SL 430/8
• 20 Oct vs Pakistan (A): L – ENG 215/10, PAK 302/9
• 27 Sep vs Sri Lanka (H): W – ENG 355/7, SL 132/10
• 24 Sep vs Sri Lanka (H): L – ENG 305/9, SL 321/6
• 22 Sep vs Sri Lanka (H): W – ENG 265/10, SL 176/10

Standings Snapshot

Head-to-Head

England have dominated this fixture historically. In 10 ODI meetings across all competitions, England have won 8 to Pakistan’s 1, with one no-result. But the most recent clash tells a different story: Pakistan beat England by 87 runs at Rawalpindi on 20 October 2026, just five days ago.

Before that, England won by 93 runs at Eden Gardens in November 2023. Going back further, England swept a three-match series in July 2021, winning at Sophia Gardens (by 9 wickets), Lord’s (by 52 runs) and Edgbaston (by 3 wickets).

In the current squad, Babar Azam leads Pakistan’s run-scorers against England with 510 runs across 9 meetings, while Fakhar Zaman has 261 runs. Haris Rauf is Pakistan’s leading wicket-taker in this fixture with 11 wickets from 5 matches, and Shaheen Afridi has 9 from 7. For England, Joe Root leads the run-scorers with 296 runs from 6 meetings.

Statz Projections and Projected Score

The Statz projections favour England, but it is competitive.

If Pakistan bat first: Projected first-innings total of 276.8, match total of 535.3. Win probability – PAK 41.3%, ENG 55.7%, tie/no-result 3%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 219 to 325.

If England bat first: Projected first-innings total of 282.3, match total of 540. Win probability – PAK 42.3%, ENG 54.7%, tie/no-result 3%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 233 to 327.

The projected match total of 538 is 6.4 runs above the Gaddafi Stadium average of 531.6. If Pakistan bat first their projected first innings of 276.8 is 1.6 runs below the ground’s first-innings average of 278.4; if England bat first their projected first innings of 282.3 is 3.9 runs above the ground’s first-innings average of 278.4. Match total P10-P90 range: 462 to 609.

Season Leaders

Pakistan – Tri-Nation Series 2026

Runs: Salman Agha – 123 runs, 61.5 a match, HS 107 | Hasan Nawaz – 116 runs, 58 a match, HS 79 | Babar Azam – 79 runs, 39.5 a match, HS 45

Wickets: Arafat Minhas – 6 wickets, 3 a match | Haris Rauf – 4 wickets, 2 a match | Shaheen Afridi – 3 wickets, 1.5 a match

England – Tri-Nation Series 2026

Runs: Harry Brook – 207 runs, 103.5 a match, HS 202 | Tom Banton – 107 runs, 53.5 a match, HS 57 | Joe Root – 102 runs, 51 a match, HS 69

Wickets: Josh Tongue – 3 wickets, 3 a match | Sonny Baker – 3 wickets, 3 a match | Sam Curran – 3 wickets, 1.5 a match

Predicted XIs

Pakistan (based on XI vs England, 20 Oct 2026)

1. Fakhar Zaman
2. Saim Ayub
3. Babar Azam
4. Saad Baig (wk)
5. Salman Agha
6. Hasan Nawaz
7. Arafat Minhas
8. Faheem Ashraf
9. Shaheen Afridi (c)
10. Naseem Shah
11. Haris Rauf

England (based on XI vs Sri Lanka, 22 Oct 2026)

1. Tom Banton
2. Ben Duckett (wk)
3. Joe Root
4. Harry Brook (c)
5. Will Jacks
6. Sam Curran
7. Jordan Cox (wk)
8. Jamie Overton
9. Liam Dawson
10. Gus Atkinson
11. Josh Tongue

These lineups are based on the most recent match for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.

Dream11 Captain and Vice Captain Picks

Based on projected fantasy points for players in the most recent XIs:

Captain: Arafat Minhas (PAK) – projected 158.1 pts. The all-rounder has been Pakistan’s standout performer this series with 6 wickets and 77 runs. His dual threat across batting and bowling makes him the safest captain choice.

Vice Captain: Abrar Ahmed (PAK) – projected 100.1 pts. The left-arm spinner provides value through his bowling and lower-order hitting, with projected 2 wickets per match.

Also consider:

• Tom Banton (ENG) – projected 98.8 pts – 107 series runs at 53.5 a match
• Jamie Overton (ENG) – projected 98.3 pts – all-rounder with projected 1.11 wickets per match
• Shaheen Afridi (PAK) – projected 98.1 pts – Pakistan’s captain and leading fast bowler

Key Players

Harry Brook (England)

England’s standout performer in this series. Brook has 207 runs at 103.5 a match, including a stunning 202 in his last outing. He is the competition’s second-leading run-scorer and carries England’s batting hopes. His aggressive approach at number 4 has been the bright spot in an otherwise disappointing campaign.

Arafat Minhas (Pakistan)

Pakistan’s most valuable player this series. Minhas has taken 6 wickets at 3 a match and scored 77 runs at 38.5 a match. His all-round contribution – particularly his 6-wicket haul – has been central to Pakistan’s perfect start. The Statz projections show him at 159.6 Dream11 points, the highest in the match.

Salman Agha (Pakistan)

Pakistan’s leading run-scorer with 123 runs at 61.5 a match, including a century in his last outing. Agha’s consistency with the bat has been crucial to Pakistan’s dominance, and he provides balance as an off-spinner in the middle order.

Joe Root (England)

England’s most experienced batter and a key figure in their recovery hopes. Root has 102 runs at 51 a match in the series and remains a threat against Pakistan’s bowling attack. His experience in sub-continental conditions makes him vital to England’s chances.

Conditions

Clear skies are forecast for Gaddafi Stadium with temperatures around 28 degrees at the start and humidity at 41%. No rain is expected. Wind is light at 5 km/h from the north-west – ideal batting conditions throughout the day.

Who Will Win Pakistan vs England?

England are favoured at 55.2% to win this match, with Pakistan at 41.8%. The Statz projections lean England regardless of who bats first – they win 54.7% if they bat first and 55.7% if they bowl first. However, Pakistan’s perfect record in this series and their home advantage at Gaddafi Stadium cannot be ignored. England’s recent form is concerning, but their batting depth – led by Brook’s 207 runs – offers hope.

This is a lean call on England. They have the firepower to chase down Pakistan’s bowling attack, but they must arrest their recent slide to do so.

Betting Angles

Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time hit rates and odds on this fixture. With no best bets currently available from the payload, focus on the projections: Arafat Minhas is projected at 159.6 Dream11 points, making him a standout captain choice. Harry Brook‘s 207-run series average suggests strong backing for England’s top-order batting lines.

Pakistan vs England Prediction FAQ

Q: Who will win Pakistan vs England?

A: England are favoured at 55.2% to win, with Pakistan at 41.8%. The Statz projections lean England regardless of who bats first, but Pakistan’s perfect record in this series and home advantage make this competitive.

Q: What is the projected score?

A: The projected match total is 538 runs, 6.4 above the Gaddafi Stadium average. If Pakistan bat first, expect around 276.8 in the first innings; if England bat first, around 282.3.

Q: Who is favourite to win the toss?

A: The toss is essentially neutral at Gaddafi Stadium, with teams batting first winning 50% of recent matches. Both sides gain a marginal 1-point edge if they bowl first, but nothing is decisive.

Q: Is England a good bet?

A: England are slight favourites at 55.2%, but they have lost their last two matches and sit bottom of the table. Pakistan’s momentum and home advantage make this a lean call rather than a strong recommendation. Nothing is guaranteed in ODI cricket.