New Zealand vs India 2nd T20I Prediction (24 Oct): Projections & Preview
New Zealand host India at Hagley Oval in Christchurch for the 2nd T20I on Saturday. First ball is at 20:00 NZDT on Saturday 24 October (08:00 UK time, 12:30 IST). India lead the series 1-0 after a thrilling four-wicket chase in the first match two days ago. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the New Zealand vs India fixture page on Statz.
The Venue and Toss Prediction
Hagley Oval has been a balanced T20 venue. Across 8 T20 matches here, the average match total stands at 318.9 and the average first-innings score is 162. Teams batting first have won 57.1% of matches at this ground – a modest but clear advantage to the side winning the toss.
Seam bowlers have taken 64.6% of wickets at an economy of 8.78, while spinners account for 31.3% of dismissals at 8.02. The pitch is tagged as Balanced. The toss will favour the side that bats first, with New Zealand gaining a marginal edge if they win it and choose to bat.
Form and Table
New Zealand – 4th (Rating 247, 12,348 points from 50 matches)
New Zealand have lost their last match. Their last five T20 Internationals read:
- 22 Oct vs IND (H): L – NZ 225/4 (20), IND 230/6 (19.4)
- 2 May vs BAN (A): W – NZ 104/4 (11.4), BAN 102/10 (14.2)
- 29 Apr vs BAN (A): NR
- 27 Apr vs BAN (A): L – NZ 182/6 (20), BAN 183/4 (18)
- 25 Mar vs SA (H): L – NZ 154/8 (20), SA 187/4 (20)
India – 2nd (Rating 267, 18,987 points from 71 matches)
India have won their last match. Their last five T20 Internationals read:
- 22 Oct vs NZ (A): W – IND 230/6 (19.4), NZ 225/4 (20)
- 17 Oct vs WI (H): NR
- 14 Oct vs WI (H): L – IND 223/9 (19.3), WI 247/3 (20)
- 11 Oct vs WI (H): W – IND 223/10 (20), WI 209/7 (20)
- 9 Oct vs WI (H): L – IND 249/5 (20), WI 252/4 (18.3)
Head-to-Head
India dominate this fixture in T20 Internationals. In 23 meetings since records began, India have won 17 to New Zealand’s 4, with 2 no-results. The most recent clash came two days ago at this very ground, where India chased down 226 with four wickets in hand and two balls remaining – a statement victory that sets the tone for this series.
New Zealand’s record at Hagley Oval against India is limited. From their last meeting here, India won by 4 wickets. Historically, New Zealand have won just one of their last five meetings with India in T20 Internationals, with the other four going India’s way.
Among the leading performers in this fixture, Suryakumar Yadav has 526 runs for India across 14 matches, while Tim Seifert leads New Zealand’s run-scorers with 501 runs from 17 meetings. With the ball, Ish Sodhi has taken 25 wickets for New Zealand in 9 matches, and Arshdeep Singh has claimed 18 wickets for India in just 3 matches – a devastating strike rate.
Statz Projections and Projected Score
The Statz projections favour India as slight favourites in what remains a competitive contest.
If New Zealand bat first: Projected first-innings total of 164.3, match total of 318.7. Win probability – NZ 46%, IND 52%, Tie/NR 2%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 139 to 190.
If India bat first: Projected first-innings total of 165, match total of 319.7. Win probability – NZ 45.9%, IND 52.1%, Tie/NR 2%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 141 to 190.
The projected match total of 319 matches the Hagley Oval average of 318.9. Both projected first-innings totals sit marginally above the ground average of 162 – expect a touch more runs in the first innings than the venue’s recent trend. Match total P10-P90 range: 280 to 355.
Season Leaders
New Zealand (T20 Internationals 2026)
Runs: Glenn Phillips – 258 runs, 43 a match, HS 82 | Devon Conway – 164 runs, 23.43 a match, HS 60 | Daryl Mitchell – 153 runs, 25.5 a match, HS 39
Wickets: Mitchell Santner – 12 wickets, 1.33 a match | Ben Sears – 10 wickets, 1.67 a match | Kyle Jamieson – 8 wickets, 1 a match
India (T20 Internationals 2026)
Runs: Abhishek Sharma – 845 runs, 31.3 a match, HS 108 | Ishan Kishan – 842 runs, 32.38 a match, HS 103 | Shreyas Iyer – 632 runs, 28.73 a match, HS 102
Wickets: Arshdeep Singh – 27 wickets, 1.35 a match | Axar Patel – 21 wickets, 1 a match | Shivam Dube – 12 wickets, 0.52 a match
Predicted XIs
New Zealand (based on XI vs India, 22 Oct 2026)
- Tim Seifert (wk)
- Finn Allen
- Daryl Mitchell
- Glenn Phillips
- Bevon Jacobs
- Michael Bracewell
- Mitchell Santner (c)
- Nathan Smith
- Matt Henry
- Adam Milne
- Lockie Ferguson
India (based on XI vs New Zealand, 22 Oct 2026)
- Sanju Samson (wk)
- Abhishek Sharma
- Tilak Varma
- Shreyas Iyer (c)
- Ishan Kishan
- Axar Patel
- Naman Dhir
- Nitish Kumar Reddy
- Bhuvneshwar Kumar
- Mayank Yadav
- Arshdeep Singh
These lineups are based on the most recent match for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.
Dream11 Captain and Vice Captain Picks
Captain: Bhuvneshwar Kumar (IND) – projected 90.4 points. The experienced seamer brings consistency across batting and bowling, with a projected 1.75 wickets and 5.5 runs. A reliable captain choice in a balanced contest.
Vice Captain: Michael Bracewell (NZ) – projected 89.3 points. The all-rounder offers dual value with projected 15.6 runs and 1.29 wickets, making him a strong vice-captain option.
Also consider:
- Abhishek Sharma (IND) – projected 77.4 points – 845 season runs at 31.3 a match, explosive top-order threat
- Mitchell Santner (NZ) – projected 87.8 points – 12 wickets this cycle, 1.33 a match, left-arm spin threat
- Arshdeep Singh (IND) – projected 82.1 points – 27 wickets in 2026, 1.35 a match, India’s leading bowler
Key Players
Abhishek Sharma (India)
India’s run-scoring machine in 2026. Sharma has amassed 845 runs at 31.3 a match with a highest score of 108. He sits at the top of the T20 Internationals run-scoring charts this cycle and has scored 20+ runs in 55.6% of his matches – a consistency rate that makes him a cornerstone of India’s batting order.
Arshdeep Singh (India)
The standout bowler in this series. Arshdeep has taken 27 wickets in 2026 at 1.35 a match, leading the competition’s wicket-taking charts. He took a wicket in the first match and has been India’s most penetrative bowler. His ability to take wickets in the powerplay and death overs makes him a constant threat.
Glenn Phillips (New Zealand)
New Zealand’s leading run-scorer this cycle with 258 runs at 43 a match. Phillips has scored 30+ runs in 50% of his matches and 20+ runs in 66.7% of his outings. He is the key to New Zealand’s batting recovery after the first-match loss and will be crucial if they are to level the series.
Mitchell Santner (New Zealand)
The New Zealand captain and leading wicket-taker with 12 wickets at 1.33 a match. Santner has taken 1+ wicket in 77.8% of his matches this cycle and 2+ wickets in 44.4% of them. His left-arm spin and lower-order batting provide balance and he will be vital to New Zealand’s hopes of a comeback.
Conditions
Clear skies are forecast for Hagley Oval with temperatures around 18 degrees at the start and humidity at 49%. No rain is expected. Wind is a notable factor at 25 km/h from the north-west – conditions that could assist the seam bowlers early on and add an extra dimension to the contest.
Who Will Win New Zealand vs India?
India are slight favourites at 52.1% to win this match, with New Zealand at 46% and a 2% tie/no-result probability. India’s momentum from the first-match victory, combined with their superior ranking (2nd vs 4th) and their dominance in this head-to-head record, gives them the edge. However, New Zealand’s home advantage and the marginal nature of the projections mean this remains a competitive contest.
Betting Angles
Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time hit rates and odds on this fixture. With no best bets currently available from the model, focus on the player-level projections: Abhishek Sharma’s consistency in scoring 20+ runs, Arshdeep Singh’s wicket-taking prowess, and Glenn Phillips’ ability to anchor New Zealand’s innings are all worth exploring through the bet builder.
New Zealand vs India Prediction FAQ
Q: Who will win New Zealand vs India?
A: India are favoured at 52.1% to win this 2nd T20I, with New Zealand at 46%. India’s series lead, superior ranking and recent form give them the edge, but New Zealand’s home advantage keeps this competitive.
Q: What is the projected score?
A: The projected match total is 319 runs, matching the Hagley Oval average. If New Zealand bat first, expect around 164 in the first innings; if India bat first, around 165. Both sides are projected to score marginally above the ground’s recent trend.
Q: Who is favourite to win the toss?
A: Winning the toss will be advantageous at Hagley Oval, with teams batting first winning 57.1% of matches here. The side that wins the toss and chooses to bat will have a marginal edge.
Q: Is India a good bet?
A: India’s 52.1% win probability reflects their current form, ranking and head-to-head dominance. They are slight favourites but nothing is guaranteed – New Zealand’s home advantage and the competitive nature of the projections mean this is far from settled.