India vs West Indies 5th T20I Prediction (17 Oct): Projections & Preview
India welcome West Indies to the M.Chinnaswamy Stadium in Bengaluru for the 5th T20I of their series. First ball is at 19:00 IST on Saturday 17 October (14:30 UK time). The hosts sit top of the ICC T20I rankings and hold a commanding 19-7 record against the Windies in T20 Internationals, but West Indies arrive on the back of a win and will be looking to make this a contest. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the India vs West Indies fixture page on Statz.
The Venue and Toss Prediction
The M.Chinnaswamy Stadium is a batting paradise. Across the last 3 T20 matches here, the average match total stands at 360.7 and the average first-innings score is 178.7. Teams batting first have won just 33.3% of those games – a clear advantage to the side that bowls first and chases on a ground where runs flow freely.
Seam bowlers have taken 63% of wickets at an economy rate of 10.03, while spinners have been more economical at 8.3 but account for 29.6% of dismissals. The pitch is tagged as a batting paradise by Statz. The most recent T20 at this ground saw Royal Challengers Bengaluru beat Gujarat Titans by 5 wickets on 24 April 2026 (RCB 206/5, GT 205/3).
The toss will be crucial. India win 55% batting first but 58.1% bowling first – a 3.1-point edge to chasing. West Indies, meanwhile, win 39.9% batting first and 43% bowling first, also gaining 3.1 points by bowling first. Expect the captain who wins the toss to bowl.
Form and Table
India – 1st (Rating 268, 16,366 points from 61 matches)
India have lost their last match. Their last five Tests were played at home and neutral venues:
- 14 Oct vs WI (H): L – IND 223/9 (19.3), WI 247/3 (20)
- 11 Oct vs WI (H): W – IND 223/10 (20), WI 209/7 (20)
- 9 Oct vs WI (H): L – IND 249/5 (20), WI 252/4 (18.3)
- 6 Oct vs WI (H): W – IND 172/2 (14.4), WI 171/10 (19.1)
- 3 Oct vs Pakistan (N): W – IND 211/6 (20), PAK 192/6 (20)
India remain top of the ICC T20I rankings despite the recent loss. They have won two of their last five but the defeats have come in close contests against West Indies – a side that is clearly peaking at the right time.
West Indies – 7th (Rating 234, 13,079 points from 56 matches)
West Indies have won their last match. Their last five were played away and at home:
- 14 Oct vs IND (A): W – WI 247/3 (20), IND 223/9 (19.3)
- 11 Oct vs IND (A): L – WI 209/7 (20), IND 223/10 (20)
- 9 Oct vs IND (A): W – WI 252/4 (18.3), IND 249/5 (20)
- 6 Oct vs IND (A): L – WI 171/10 (19.1), IND 172/2 (14.4)
- 15 Jun vs Sri Lanka (H): W – WI 170/5 (19.4), SL 169/10 (20)
West Indies sit 7th in the rankings but their form in this series has been outstanding. They have won two of their last four matches against India and will back themselves to level the series here.
Head-to-Head
India dominate this fixture. In 26 T20 Internationals between the sides, India have won 19 to West Indies’ 7. The most recent clash came on 14 October at Hyderabad, where West Indies chased down India’s 223/9 to win by 24 runs – a statement victory that has given them genuine momentum.
Before that, the sides have met four times in quick succession this month. India won at Indore by 14 runs and at Lucknow by 8 wickets, but West Indies took the matches at Ranchi (by 6 wickets) and Hyderabad (by 24 runs). The series is level at 2-2 after five matches.
In the last 31 meetings, Arshdeep Singh has taken 19 wickets for India and Roston Chase has taken 13 for West Indies. For runs, Suryakumar Yadav leads India’s charge with 426 runs, while Shimron Hetmyer has 503 for the Windies.
Statz Projections and Projected Score
The Statz projections make this a tight contest with a slight lean to India.
If India bat first: Projected first-innings total of 186.3, match total of 361. Win probability – IND 55%, WI 43%, tie/no result 2%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 160 to 213.
If West Indies bat first: Projected first-innings total of 184.3, match total of 358.5. Win probability – IND 58.1%, WI 39.9%, tie/no result 2%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 157 to 212.
The projected match total of 360 is 0.7 runs below the M.Chinnaswamy Stadium average of 360.7. If India bat first their projected first innings of 186.3 is 7.6 runs above the ground’s first-innings average of 178.7; if West Indies bat first their projected first innings of 184.3 is 5.6 runs above the ground’s first-innings average of 178.7. Match total P10-P90 range: 309 to 410.
Season Leaders
India – T20 Internationals 2026
Runs: Ishan Kishan – 811 runs, 33.79 a match, HS 103 | Abhishek Sharma – 810 runs, 32.4 a match, HS 108 | Shreyas Iyer – 568 runs, 28.4 a match, HS 102
Wickets: Arshdeep Singh – 26 wickets, 1.44 a match | Axar Patel – 20 wickets, 1.05 a match | Shivam Dube – 12 wickets, 0.55 a match
West Indies – T20 Internationals 2026
Runs: Shimron Hetmyer – 399 runs, 30.69 a match, HS 75 | Shai Hope – 384 runs, 42.67 a match, HS 102 | Sherfane Rutherford – 352 runs, 39.11 a match, HS 84
Wickets: Shamar Joseph – 15 wickets, 1.36 a match | Shamar Springer – 10 wickets, 1.67 a match | Roston Chase – 9 wickets, 0.9 a match
Predicted XIs
India (based on XI vs West Indies, 14 Oct 2026)
- Sanju Samson (wk)
- Abhishek Sharma
- Ishan Kishan
- Shreyas Iyer (c)
- Tilak Varma
- Naman Dhir
- Nitish Kumar Reddy
- Axar Patel
- Prince Yadav
- Arshdeep Singh
- Mayank Yadav
West Indies (based on XI vs India, 14 Oct 2026)
- Shai Hope (c, wk)
- Jewel Andrew
- Shimron Hetmyer
- Rovman Powell
- Sherfane Rutherford
- Romario Shepherd
- Keemo Paul
- Roston Chase
- Shamar Springer
- Shamar Joseph
- Gudakesh Motie
These lineups are based on the most recent match for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.
Dream11 Captain and Vice Captain Picks
Captain: Roston Chase (WI) – projected 82.8 points. The West Indies all-rounder brings balance across batting and bowling with 9 wickets this cycle and a projected 18 runs. His recent form and role in the middle order make him a premium captaincy option.
Vice Captain: Abhishek Sharma (IND) – projected 81.8 points. India’s explosive left-hander has 810 runs this cycle at 32.4 a match and is projected for 33.8 runs here. His strike rate of 201.1 makes him a high-ceiling pick.
Also consider:
- Ishan Kishan (IND) – projected 75.6 points – 811 season runs, 33.79 a match
- Shreyas Iyer (IND) – projected 76.6 points – 568 season runs, 28.4 a match
- Shimron Hetmyer (WI) – projected 79.6 points – 399 season runs, 30.69 a match
Key Players
Ishan Kishan (India)
India’s leading run-scorer this cycle with 811 runs at 33.79 a match. Kishan has been the backbone of India’s batting, with a high score of 103 and a 20+ run hit rate of 62.5 for the season. His last three scores of 43, 37 and 6 show he is capable of big innings but has also had a quiet outing. Against West Indies’ bowling attack, his aggressive approach could be the difference.
Shimron Hetmyer (West Indies)
West Indies’ leading run-scorer with 399 runs at 30.69 a match and a high score of 75. Hetmyer has been the standout performer in this series, with a 30+ run hit rate of 61.5 for the cycle and 60% in his last five matches. His last three scores of 0, 43 and 33 show he can be explosive when he gets going.
Arshdeep Singh (India)
India’s leading wicket-taker with 26 wickets at 1.44 a match this cycle. Arshdeep has been relentless in the death overs and powerplay, with a 1+ wicket hit rate of 66.7 for the season. His last three returns of 0, 3 and 1 wicket show he is a match-winner on his day.
Shamar Joseph (West Indies)
West Indies’ leading wicket-taker with 15 wickets at 1.36 a match. Joseph has been the standout bowler in this series, taking 14 wickets in 8 matches with a high of 5. His pace and accuracy in the powerplay and death overs make him a genuine threat to India’s batting lineup.
Who Will Win India vs West Indies?
India are the pick at 56.6% to win this match, with West Indies at 41.5%. The hosts hold the higher ranking and the superior head-to-head record, but West Indies have shown they can compete at this level and arrive on the back of a convincing win. India gain a 3.1-point edge by bowling first, so expect them to chase if they win the toss. The projected match total of 360 sits right at the venue average, suggesting a high-scoring contest on a ground that favours aggressive cricket.
Betting Angles
West Indies are available at indicative odds of 3.5 across multiple bookmakers, with bet365 offering 3.2. The Statz model rates their true win probability at 35%, giving an edge of 6.4 points at the 3.5 price. This represents value for those backing the underdogs.
Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time hit rates and odds on individual player performances in this fixture.
India vs West Indies Prediction FAQ
Q: Who will win India vs West Indies?
A: India are the pick at 56.6% to win this 5th T20I, with West Indies at 41.5%. India hold the higher ranking and a 19-7 head-to-head record, but West Indies have won two of the last four meetings and will back themselves to level the series.
Q: What is the projected score?
A: The projected match total is 360 runs. If India bat first, expect around 186 in the first innings and 361 overall; if West Indies bat first, around 184 in the first innings and 358.5 overall. Both scenarios sit close to the M.Chinnaswamy Stadium average of 360.7.
Q: Who is favourite to win the toss?
A: The toss is not predictable, but the captain who wins it should bowl. India win 55% batting first but 58.1% bowling first; West Indies win 39.9% batting first and 43% bowling first. Both sides gain 3.1 points by chasing on this ground.
Q: Is India a good bet?
A: India are favoured at 56.6% but West Indies offer value at 3.5 odds with a true win probability of 35%. The underdogs have momentum, recent form against India, and the quality to compete in a high-scoring contest at a batting-friendly venue.