India vs West Indies 3rd T20I Prediction (11 Oct): Projections & Preview
India host West Indies at the Holkar Cricket Stadium in Indore for the 3rd T20I of their series. First ball is at 19:00 IST on Sunday 11 October (14:30 UK time). The series is level at 1-1 after two thrilling encounters, with both sides looking to seize control in this decisive clash. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the India vs West Indies fixture page on Statz.
The Venue and Toss Prediction
The Holkar Cricket Stadium in Indore is a high-scoring venue. Across the last 3 T20 matches here, the average match total stands at 345.3 with an average first-innings score of 180.3. Teams batting first have won just 33.3% of matches at this ground – a clear advantage to the side that bowls first and chases.
Seam bowlers have taken 64.1% of wickets at an economy rate of 9.42, while spinners account for 28.2% of dismissals at 9.02. The pitch is tagged as Balanced by Statz. The venue data favours the chasing side, and with West Indies’ recent form and India’s slip-up in the 2nd T20I, expect the team winning the toss to consider bowling first.
Form and Table
India – Ranked 1st (ICC T20I Rankings)
India have lost their last match. They came unstuck at Ranchi on 9 October, posting 249/5 but falling short as West Indies chased down 252/4 in 18.3 overs. Before that loss, India had strung together three wins – against Pakistan (211/6 vs 192/6 at a neutral venue), Sri Lanka (169/7 vs 45/10, a dominant display) and a successful chase of 171/10 against West Indies at Lucknow on 6 October. Their last five matches read:
- 9 Oct vs West Indies (H): L – IND 249/5, WI 252/4 (18.3)
- 6 Oct vs West Indies (H): W – IND 172/2 (14.4), WI 171/10 (19.1)
- 3 Oct vs Pakistan (N): W – IND 211/6, PAK 192/6
- 1 Oct vs Sri Lanka (N): W – IND 169/7, SL 45/10 (9.5)
- 22 Sep vs Japan (A): W – IND 32/4 (5), JPN 31/3 (5)
West Indies – Ranked 7th (ICC T20I Rankings)
West Indies have won their last match. They claimed a thrilling six-wicket victory at Ranchi on 9 October, chasing down India’s 249 with 9 balls to spare. Before that, they fell short at Lucknow, but their form at home in June was strong with wins over Sri Lanka. Their last five matches read:
- 9 Oct vs India (A): W – WI 252/4 (18.3), IND 249/5
- 6 Oct vs India (A): L – WI 171/10 (19.1), IND 172/2 (14.4)
- 15 Jun vs Sri Lanka (H): W – WI 170/5 (19.4), SL 169/10
- 14 Jun vs Sri Lanka (H): L – WI 157/10 (18.1), SL 194/6
- 12 Jun vs Sri Lanka (H): W – WI 149/3 (19.2), SL 147/9
Head-to-Head
India lead the all-time T20I record against West Indies 18-6 from 24 meetings. However, the recent series has been competitive. The last five encounters tell the story: India won the 1st T20I at Lucknow on 6 October by 8 wickets, West Indies took the 2nd at Ranchi on 9 October by 6 wickets, and before this series, West Indies won twice in August 2023 at Central Broward Regional Park (8 wickets) while India won at Providence Stadium (7 wickets).
Among India’s leading run-scorers in this fixture, Suryakumar Yadav has 426 runs from 12 meetings, though he is not in the current squad. Kuldeep Yadav has been India’s standout bowler with 19 wickets from just 3 matches in this rivalry. For West Indies, Shimron Hetmyer has 427 runs from 21 meetings and remains a key threat, while Jason Holder has taken 13 wickets from 11 matches.
Statz Projections and Projected Score
The Statz projections favour India, but West Indies remain very much in the contest.
If India bat first: Projected first-innings total of 186.1, match total of 360.3. Win probability – India 57.6%, West Indies 40.4%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 159 to 214.
If West Indies bat first: Projected first-innings total of 184.6, match total of 358.8. Win probability – India 59.5%, West Indies 38.5%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 157 to 213.
The projected match total of 360 is 14.7 runs above the Holkar Cricket Stadium average of 345.3, suggesting both sides will score freely. If India bat first their projected first innings of 186.1 is 5.8 runs above the ground’s first-innings average of 180.3; if West Indies bat first their projected first innings of 184.6 is 4.3 runs above the ground’s first-innings average of 180.3. Match total P10-P90 range: 318 to 403.
Season Leaders
India – T20 Internationals 2026
Runs: Ishan Kishan – 768 runs, 34.91 a match, HS 103 | Abhishek Sharma – 712 runs, 30.96 a match, HS 108 | Shreyas Iyer – 551 runs, 30.61 a match, HS 102
Wickets: Arshdeep Singh – 22 wickets, best 5 | Axar Patel – 18 wickets, best 3 | Shivam Dube – 12 wickets, best 2
West Indies – T20 Internationals 2026
Runs: Shimron Hetmyer – 323 runs, 29.36 a match, HS 75 | Shai Hope – 277 runs, 39.57 a match, HS 102 | Sherfane Rutherford – 271 runs, 38.71 a match, HS 84
Wickets: Shamar Joseph – 13 wickets, best 5 | Matthew Forde – 8 wickets, best 2 | Roston Chase – 7 wickets, best 3
Predicted XIs
India (based on XI vs West Indies, 09 Oct 2026)
- Abhishek Sharma
- Sanju Samson (wk)
- Ishan Kishan
- Shivam Dube
- Shreyas Iyer (c)
- Tilak Varma
- Naman Dhir
- Axar Patel
- Arshdeep Singh
- Mayank Yadav
- Kuldeep Yadav
West Indies (based on XI vs India, 09 Oct 2026)
- Shai Hope (c, wk)
- Kamil Pooran
- Shimron Hetmyer
- Rovman Powell
- Sherfane Rutherford
- Romario Shepherd
- Roston Chase
- Shamar Springer
- Akeal Hosein
- Shamar Joseph
- Gudakesh Motie
These lineups are based on the most recent match for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.
Dream11 Captain and Vice Captain Picks
Captain: Roston Chase (WI) – projected 84.5 points. The West Indies all-rounder offers value across batting and bowling, with 7 wickets at 0.88 a match this cycle and a projected strike rate of 123.1.
Vice Captain: Mayank Yadav (IND) – projected 78.7 points. India’s pace bowler has taken 7 wickets in just 4 matches this cycle at 80% hit rate for 1+ wicket, with a projected economy of 10.56.
Also consider:
- Ishan Kishan (IND) – projected 76.6 points – 768 season runs at 34.91 a match, 63.6% hit rate for 20+ runs
- Hardik Pandya (IND) – projected 93.3 points – all-rounder with 27.7 projected runs and 0.84 projected wickets
- Shimron Hetmyer (WI) – projected 76.6 points – 323 season runs at 29.36 a match, 54.5% hit rate for 20+ runs
Key Players
Ishan Kishan (India)
The India wicketkeeper-batter has been the standout performer in this T20I cycle. With 768 runs at 34.91 a match and a high score of 103, Kishan sits atop India’s run-scoring charts. His consistency is remarkable – he has scored 20+ runs in 63.6% of his matches this season and 80% in his last five. In the 1st T20I at Lucknow, Kishan’s aggressive batting set the tone for India’s successful chase.
Shimron Hetmyer (West Indies)
West Indies’ leading run-scorer in this cycle with 323 runs at 29.36 a match. Hetmyer has been the backbone of their batting lineup, with a high score of 75. His last three scores of 32, 5 and 0 show some inconsistency, but his 54.5% hit rate for 20+ runs this season and 40% in his last five suggest he remains a key player. His ability to accelerate in the middle overs will be crucial in Indore.
Arshdeep Singh (India)
India’s leading wicket-taker with 22 wickets from 16 matches this cycle at 1.38 a match. Arshdeep has been relentless with the new ball and at the death, taking 1+ wicket in 66.7% of his matches. His economy rate of 9.42 at Holkar suggests he can keep West Indies’ batters in check, particularly in the powerplay and final overs.
Shamar Joseph (West Indies)
West Indies’ leading bowler with 13 wickets from 9 matches at 1.44 a match. Joseph has been the standout performer in their attack, with a best of 5 wickets and a 1+ wicket hit rate of 71.4%. His ability to take wickets in clusters – as shown by his 5-wicket haul – makes him a genuine match-winner on any surface.
Who Will Win India vs West Indies?
India are the favourites here. The Statz projections give India a 58.6% win probability with West Indies at 39.5%, a lean but clear edge. India’s ranking advantage (1st vs 7th), their home ground familiarity, and their stronger squad depth all point to a home victory. However, West Indies have shown they can compete – their 2nd T20I win proved they have the firepower to chase down big totals, and the venue’s chasing advantage means nothing is guaranteed.
India win 57.6% batting first and 59.5% bowling first – a marginal advantage to bowling first. West Indies win 38.5% batting first and 40.4% bowling first, also slightly better when chasing. The toss will matter, but India’s quality should prevail.
Betting Angles
Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time hit rates and odds on this fixture. Key angles to explore:
- Ishan Kishan 20+ runs – 80% hit rate in his last 5 matches, 63.6% for the season. India’s most consistent batter.
- Arshdeep Singh 1+ wicket – 66.7% hit rate this cycle. A reliable option from India’s pace attack.
- Shamar Joseph 1+ wicket – 71.4% hit rate this cycle. West Indies’ standout bowler.
- Shimron Hetmyer 20+ runs – 54.5% hit rate this season. West Indies’ leading run-scorer in the cycle.
India vs West Indies Prediction FAQ
Q: Who will win India vs West Indies?
A: India are favourites at 58.6% win probability to West Indies’ 39.5%. India’s ranking advantage, home ground and squad depth give them the edge, but West Indies have proven they can compete in this series.
Q: What is the projected score?
A: The projected match total is 360, which is 14.7 runs above the Holkar Cricket Stadium average of 345.3. If India bat first, expect around 186; if West Indies bat first, around 185.
Q: Who is favourite to win the toss?
A: The toss data favours the chasing side at Holkar. India win 59.5% bowling first and West Indies win 40.4% bowling first – both sides gain a marginal advantage by chasing. Expect the winning captain to bowl first.
Q: Is India a good bet?
A: At 58.6%, India are the clear favourites, but the margin is not overwhelming. West Indies’ recent form and chasing prowess mean this is not a one-sided affair. The value depends on the odds available.