Bangladesh vs West Indies 2nd Test Prediction (5 Nov): Projections & Preview

Bangladesh host West Indies at the Sylhet International Cricket Stadium for the 2nd and final Test of the series, with everything on the line. West Indies lead the 2-match series 1-0 going into the 2nd and final Test, meaning Bangladesh must win to level the series while a draw hands the tourists victory. First ball is at 09:30 local time on Thursday 5 November (03:30 UK time, 09:00 IST).

The stakes could not be higher for the hosts. Bangladesh were beaten by 8 wickets in the 1st Test at Mirpur and now travel to Sylhet needing a response. For full head-to-head records, projected scores and live lineups, see the Full H2H stats, projections and lineups on Statz.

The Venue and Toss Prediction

The Sylhet International Cricket Stadium has hosted 3 Test matches in the Statz dataset, and the numbers paint a picture of a high-scoring venue. The average match total across those 3 matches stands at 1,157.3, with an average first-innings score of 291.2. Seam bowlers have taken 55% of wickets at an economy of 3.64, while spinners have been more economical at 3.27 but account for 41.7% of dismissals – a pitch that rewards patience from both disciplines.

Bangladesh have played 5 matches at this ground since 2021, winning 3 and losing 2. Their top scorer here is Mahmudul Hasan Joy with 283 runs, while Mehidy Hasan Miraz leads the wicket-takers with 11 wickets in those matches. West Indies have no recorded matches at this venue in the dataset.

On the toss prediction: teams batting first have won 100% of matches at Sylhet in the dataset, though the sample is only 3 matches so that figure should be treated with caution. The model shows no difference in Bangladesh’s win probability whether they bat or bowl first – 51.8% either way – so the toss edge here is far from settled. If anything, the historical bat-first dominance and the spin-friendly conditions as the match wears on suggest winning the toss and batting could be the safer call.

Form and Table

Bangladesh – 5th in the ICC World Test Championship (P7 W3 L3 D1, 40 pts, 47.62%)

Bangladesh have lost their last match. Their last 5 matches were played: 1 home, 1 neutral, 3 away. They arrive at Sylhet needing to bounce back after a chastening defeat in Dhaka:

• 28 Oct 2026 vs West Indies (H): L – BAN 272 & 142, WI 245 & 170/2
• 9 Oct 2026 vs Afghanistan (N): D – BAN 346 & 372/7, AFG 240 & 346/8
• 22 Aug 2026 vs Australia (A): L – BAN 64 & 95, AUS 210
• 13 Aug 2026 vs Australia (A): W – BAN 410 & 57/1, AUS 187 & 284
• 28 Jun 2026 vs Zimbabwe (A): L – BAN 140 & 185, ZIM 410

West Indies – 8th in the ICC World Test Championship (P13 W3 L8 D2, 42 pts, 26.92%)

West Indies have won their last match. Their last 5 matches were played: 1 away, 4 home. They come into this Test on the back of a series-opening win and with momentum behind them:

• 28 Oct 2026 vs Bangladesh (A): W – WI 245 & 170/2, BAN 272 & 142
• 2 Aug 2026 vs Pakistan (H): L – WI 344 & 117, PAK 387 & 77/2
• 25 Jul 2026 vs Pakistan (H): W – WI 311 & 181, PAK 282 & 120
• 3 Jul 2026 vs Sri Lanka (H): D – WI 499 & 109/0, SL 549/9 & 251/9
• 25 Jun 2026 vs Sri Lanka (H): W – WI 626/9, SL 308 & 101

WTC Standings Snapshot

Bangladesh sit 5th with a genuine chance of climbing the table with a win here. West Indies are 8th and, while a series win would be a fine result, their points percentage means they need consistent results to stay relevant in the WTC cycle.

Head-to-Head

In ICC World Test Championship matches, West Indies have been the dominant side. Across 7 meetings in the competition, West Indies have won 6 to Bangladesh’s 1, with no draws. The most recent meetings, newest first:

• 28 Oct 2026 at Shere Bangla National Stadium: West Indies won by 8 wickets
• 30 Nov 2024 at Sabina Park: Bangladesh won by 101 runs
• 22 Nov 2024 at Sir Vivian Richards Stadium: West Indies won by 201 runs
• 24 Jun 2022 at Darren Sammy National Cricket Stadium: West Indies won by 10 wickets
• 16 Jun 2022 at Sir Vivian Richards Stadium: West Indies won by 7 wickets

Among the leading performers across the sides’ last 11 meetings in ICC World Test Championship cricket, Litton Das tops Bangladesh’s run-scorers with 340 runs in 10 matches, ahead of Shadman Islam (304 runs in 4 matches) and Mehidy Hasan Miraz (289 runs in 11 matches). With the ball, Mehidy leads Bangladesh’s wicket-takers with 33 wickets in 11 matches, followed by Taijul Islam (13 wickets in 8 matches) and Nayeem Hasan (11 wickets in 5 matches).

For West Indies, Kraigg Brathwaite leads all run-scorers in this fixture with 555 runs in 10 matches and remains in the current squad. With the ball, Jomel Warrican leads West Indies’ wicket-takers with 15 wickets in 5 matches, ahead of Kemar Roach (14 wickets in 8 matches) and Jayden Seales (13 wickets in 5 matches), all of whom remain in the current squad.

Statz Projections and Projected Score

The Statz projections give Bangladesh a clear edge regardless of which side wins the toss, with the draw also a factor in any Test match assessment.

If Bangladesh bat first: Projected first-innings total of 329.5, match total of 995.5. Win probability – Bangladesh 51.8%, West Indies 34.9%, draw 13.4%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 161.7 to 536.8.

If West Indies bat first: Projected first-innings total of 298.9, match total of 983. Win probability – Bangladesh 51.8%, West Indies 34.9%, draw 13.2%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 143.6 to 494.9.

The projected match total of 989 is 168.3 runs below the Sylhet International Cricket Stadium average of 1,157.3 – the model rates both bowling attacks highly enough to suppress scoring below the venue norm. If Bangladesh bat first, their projected first innings of 329.5 is 38.3 runs above the ground’s first-innings average of 291.2; if West Indies bat first, their projected first innings of 298.9 is 7.7 runs above the ground’s first-innings average of 291.2. The wide P10-P90 ranges reflect the inherent uncertainty of Test cricket – this match can be drawn, and the model gives that outcome a 13.3% chance.

Season Leaders

All figures below are from the ICC World Test Championship 2025/2027 cycle, covering each side’s own players only.

Bangladesh – Cycle Leaders

Runs: Najmul Hossain Shanto – 676 runs, 96.57 a match, HS 273 | Mushfiqur Rahim – 596 runs, 99.33 a match, HS 212 | Litton Das – 418 runs, 59.71 a match, HS 195

Wickets: Taijul Islam – 26 wickets, 3.71 a match, best 9 | Mehidy Hasan Miraz – 17 wickets, 2.83 a match, best 6 | Hasan Mahmud – 14 wickets, 3.5 a match, best 9

West Indies – Cycle Leaders

Runs: Justin Greaves – 821 runs, 63.15 a match, HS 202 | Shai Hope – 793 runs, 72.09 a match, HS 196 | John Campbell – 653 runs, 59.36 a match, HS 125

Wickets: Shamar Joseph – 38 wickets, 4.75 a match, best 9 | Jayden Seales – 36 wickets, 2.77 a match, best 6 | Justin Greaves – 25 wickets, 1.92 a match, best 7

Greaves is a standout name in the WTC cycle, fifth among all run-scorers in the entire championship with 821 runs, and also West Indies’ third-highest wicket-taker – a genuine match-winner with both bat and ball.

Predicted XIs

Bangladesh (based on XI vs West Indies, 28 Oct 2026)

1. Shadman Islam
2. Tanzid Hasan
3. Mominul Haque
4. Najmul Hossain Shanto (c)
5. Towhid Hridoy
6. Litton Das (wk)
7. Mehidy Hasan Miraz
8. Nayeem Hasan
9. Hasan Mahmud
10. Taijul Islam
11. Shoriful Islam

West Indies (based on XI vs Bangladesh, 28 Oct 2026)

1. John Campbell
2. Brandon King
3. Tagenarine Chanderpaul
4. Kavem Hodge
5. Amir Jangoo (wk)
6. Justin Greaves
7. Roston Chase (c)
8. Joshua Bishop
9. Shamar Joseph
10. Jomel Warrican
11. Jayden Seales

These lineups are based on the most recent match for each side. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.

Dream11 Captain and Vice Captain Picks

Based on projected fantasy points for players in the most recent XIs:

Captain: Mehidy Hasan Miraz (BAN) – projected 155.3 pts. The Bangladesh all-rounder is the standout Dream11 pick, contributing with both bat and ball. He has taken 1+ wickets in 83.3% of his matches this cycle and 2+ wickets in 66.7% – a dual threat who tops the projected points chart.

Vice Captain: Kavem Hodge (WI) – projected 147.6 pts. Hodge has scored 20+ runs in 80% of his last 5 matches and 30+ runs in 80% of his last 5 – a consistent performer who offers genuine batting value in the middle order.

Also consider:

• Taijul Islam (BAN) – 26 wickets this cycle, 1+ wicket in 100% of his matches
• Jomel Warrican (WI) – 15 wickets in 5 WTC meetings with Bangladesh, projected 3.95 wickets per match if Bangladesh bat first
• Justin Greaves (WI) – 821 cycle runs and 25 wickets, 80% hit rate for 20+ runs in his last 5 matches

Key Players

Mehidy Hasan Miraz (Bangladesh)

The pick of the Bangladesh players across every metric. Mehidy leads the head-to-head wicket charts with 33 wickets in 11 WTC meetings against West Indies and has scored 289 runs in those same matches. This cycle he has taken 17 wickets at 2.83 a match, with a best of 6. He has taken 1+ wicket in 83.3% of his matches and 2+ wickets in 66.7%. With the bat he sits third among Bangladesh’s cycle run-scorers with 418 runs. A match-defining all-rounder on a spin-friendly Sylhet surface.

Taijul Islam (Bangladesh)

Bangladesh’s leading wicket-taker in the ICC World Test Championship 2025/2027 cycle with 26 wickets in 7 matches – 3.71 a match – and a best return of 9. He has taken at least one wicket in every single match this cycle (100% hit rate across both last 5 and the full season). In 8 WTC meetings against West Indies he has claimed 13 wickets. On a Sylhet pitch where spinners have taken 41.7% of wickets, Taijul is the most dangerous bowler on either side.

Justin Greaves (West Indies)

The West Indies all-rounder is the standout name in the WTC cycle, leading West Indies’ run-scorers with 821 runs at 63.15 a match and a high score of 202. He is also third among West Indies’ wicket-takers with 25 wickets at 1.92 a match. His 20+ run hit rate stands at 80% in his last 5 matches and 84.6% for the cycle. He has scored 30+ runs in 76.9% of his matches this cycle. A genuine match-winner on both sides of the ball.

Shamar Joseph (West Indies)

West Indies’ leading wicket-taker in the WTC 2025/2027 cycle with 38 wickets in 8 matches – 4.75 a match – and a best of 9. He has taken 1+ wicket in 100% of his matches and 2+ wickets in 100% of his last 5. Joseph sits fifth among all wicket-takers across the entire championship. Even on a surface that historically favours spin, his relentless wicket-taking makes him a constant threat.

Who Will Win Bangladesh vs West Indies?

The Statz model gives Bangladesh a 51.8% chance of winning, West Indies 34.9%, and the draw 13.3%. That is a lean towards the hosts, not a decisive edge – nothing is guaranteed in a Test match, particularly one with this much riding on it.

Bangladesh have the home advantage at a ground where they have won 3 of their 5 matches since 2021, and their spin attack – led by Taijul Islam and Mehidy Hasan Miraz – is well suited to Sylhet conditions. West Indies, though, arrive on the back of a series-opening win and carry the momentum. Their bowling attack, anchored by Shamar Joseph and Jayden Seales, has been among the most productive in the WTC cycle.

The model’s verdict is Bangladesh, and the home conditions and spin-friendly surface support that call. But West Indies’ H2H dominance (6 wins from 7 WTC meetings) and their current form mean this is far from settled. The draw, at 13.3%, is also a live outcome worth keeping in mind.

Betting Angles

The best_bets data is not available for this fixture. For real-time hit rates, player props and match betting angles, head to the Statz bet builder. Based on the cycle data, the following player trends stand out:

• Taijul Islam 1+ wicket – 100% hit rate across all 7 matches this cycle and his last 5. The most consistent wicket-taking record in this match.
• Shamar Joseph 2+ wickets – 100% hit rate in his last 5 matches and across the full cycle. West Indies’ most dangerous bowler by volume.
• Mehidy Hasan Miraz 2+ wickets – 66.7% season hit rate, 80% in his last 5. The Bangladesh all-rounder has been in fine wicket-taking form.
• Justin Greaves 20+ runs – 80% hit rate in his last 5 matches, 84.6% for the cycle. West Indies’ most reliable batting performer.

Bangladesh vs West Indies Prediction FAQ

Q: Who will win Bangladesh vs West Indies in the 2nd Test?

A: The Statz model gives Bangladesh a 51.8% chance of winning, West Indies 34.9%, and the draw 13.3%. Bangladesh are the narrow favourites at home in Sylhet, but West Indies lead the series 1-0 and nothing is guaranteed in a Test match.

Q: What is the projected score for Bangladesh vs West Indies?

A: If Bangladesh bat first, the projected first-innings total is 329.5 and the match total is 995.5. If West Indies bat first, the projected first innings is 298.9 and the match total is 983. Both projections sit below the Sylhet average of 1,157.3.

Q: Who is favourite to win the toss in Bangladesh vs West Indies?

A: The toss is a 50-50 call by nature, but teams batting first have won 100% of matches at Sylhet in the Statz dataset (3 matches). The model shows no difference in win probability for either side regardless of the toss outcome, so the toss advantage here is far from settled.

Q: Is Bangladesh a good bet to win this Test?

A: The model gives Bangladesh a 51.8% win probability at home in Sylhet, supported by a spin-friendly surface that suits Taijul Islam and Mehidy Hasan Miraz. However, West Indies have won 6 of 7 WTC meetings between these sides and arrive in form, so any bet carries real risk. Always check indicative odds and use the Statz bet builder for the latest data before placing any wager.