Bangladesh vs West Indies 1st Test Prediction (28 Oct): Projections & Preview

Bangladesh host West Indies at the Shere Bangla National Stadium in Mirpur, Dhaka, for the 1st Test of a 2-match series. The series is level at 0-0 – the first Test of a 2-match series. First ball is at 09:30 local time on Wednesday 28 October (03:30 UK time, 09:00 IST).

Bangladesh enter as favourites on home soil, where spin has historically been the dominant force. West Indies arrive having lost their last match and sitting near the foot of the ICC World Test Championship table. For full head-to-head records, projections and squad details, see the Bangladesh vs West Indies fixture page on Statz.

The Venue and Toss Prediction

The Shere Bangla National Stadium is one of the most spin-friendly Test venues in the world. Across 7 matches there, the average first-innings score is 291.6 and the average match total stands at 896.7. Teams batting first have won just 42.9% of those matches – a figure that leans slightly against batting first, though the margin is not dramatic.

Spin bowlers have been the decisive force, accounting for 55.2% of wickets at an economy of 3.07, compared to seamers who take 41.8% at 3.26. The pitch is tagged as Balanced by Statz, but the spin numbers tell a clear story: this surface will turn, and it will turn more as the match progresses.

For the toss, the data offers a nuanced picture. Bangladesh win 58% batting first and 57.9% bowling first – a marginal difference of 0.1 points. West Indies show no difference at all between the two scenarios (31.3% either way). In a Test context, batting first on a fresh pitch avoids the prospect of facing Bangladesh’s spinners on a worn surface in the fourth innings. The toss call is close, but the wearing pitch argument nudges slightly towards batting first.

Form and Table

Bangladesh – 4th (P6 W3 L2 D1, 40 pts, 55.56%)

Bangladesh have drawn their last match. Their last 5 matches were played across neutral, away and home venues:

• 9 Oct 2026 vs Afghanistan (N): D – BAN 346 & 372/7, AFG 240 & 346/8
• 22 Aug 2026 vs Australia (A): L – BAN 64 & 95, AUS 210
• 13 Aug 2026 vs Australia (A): W – BAN 410 & 57/1, AUS 187 & 284
• 28 Jun 2026 vs Zimbabwe (A): L – BAN 140 & 185, ZIM 410
• 16 May 2026 vs Pakistan (H): W – BAN 278 & 390, PAK 232 & 358

West Indies – 8th (P12 W2 L8 D2, 30 pts, 20.83%)

West Indies have lost their last match. Their last 5 matches were predominantly at home:

• 2 Aug 2026 vs Pakistan (H): L – WI 344 & 117, PAK 387 & 77/2
• 25 Jul 2026 vs Pakistan (H): W – WI 311 & 181, PAK 282 & 120
• 3 Jul 2026 vs Sri Lanka (H): D – WI 499 & 109/0, SL 549/9 & 251/9
• 25 Jun 2026 vs Sri Lanka (H): W – WI 626/9, SL 308 & 101
• 17 Dec 2025 vs New Zealand (A): L – WI 420 & 138, NZ 575/8 & 306/2

WTC Table Snapshot

Bangladesh sit 4th in the ICC World Test Championship standings, well placed in the top half of the table. West Indies are 8th, with only Pakistan below them. The gulf in table position reflects the gulf in recent form – Bangladesh are a genuine contender in this cycle; West Indies are fighting to avoid finishing bottom.

Head-to-Head

In ICC World Test Championship cricket, West Indies have dominated this fixture. Across 6 meetings, West Indies have won 5 to Bangladesh’s 1, with no draws. The most recent clash came on 30 November 2024 at Sabina Park, where Bangladesh won by 101 runs – their solitary victory in the sequence. Before that, West Indies won by 201 runs at Sir Vivian Richards Stadium on 22 November 2024.

Earlier meetings tell the same story: West Indies won by 10 wickets at Darren Sammy National Cricket Stadium (24 Jun 2022), by 7 wickets at Sir Vivian Richards Stadium (16 Jun 2022), and by 17 runs at this very ground – the Shere Bangla National Stadium – on 11 February 2021.

Among the current squad players, Litton Das leads Bangladesh’s run-scorers in this fixture with 306 runs from 9 matches, followed by Mehidy Hasan Miraz with 274 runs and 31 wickets from 10 matches. For West Indies, Kraigg Brathwaite leads with 555 runs from 10 matches, while Kemar Roach tops the wickets column with 14 from 8 matches. Alzarri Joseph and Jayden Seales have each taken 12 wickets in this fixture from 5 and 4 matches respectively – both are in the current squad and will be key threats.

Statz Projections and Projected Score

The Statz projections give Bangladesh a clear edge regardless of the toss result.

If Bangladesh bat first: Projected first-innings total of 364, match total of 1021.3. Win probability – Bangladesh 58%, West Indies 31.3%, draw 10.8%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 177.9 to 592.3.

If West Indies bat first: Projected first-innings total of 282.5, match total of 980.4. Win probability – Bangladesh 57.9%, West Indies 31.3%, draw 10.9%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 136.2 to 470.1.

The projected match total of 1001 is 104.3 runs above the Shere Bangla National Stadium average of 896.7. If Bangladesh bat first, their projected first innings of 364 is 72.4 runs above the ground’s first-innings average of 291.6; if West Indies bat first, their projected first innings of 282.5 is 9.1 runs below the ground’s first-innings average of 291.6. The model rates Bangladesh’s batting significantly more highly than West Indies’ on this surface. Remember: this is a Test match, and a draw (10.8-10.9%) is always a live result.

Season Leaders

The following figures cover the ICC World Test Championship 2025/2027 cycle.

Bangladesh Season Leaders

Runs: Najmul Hossain Shanto – 647 runs, 107.83 a match, HS 273 | Mushfiqur Rahim – 596 runs, 99.33 a match, HS 212 | Litton Das – 380 runs, 63.33 a match, HS 195 | Mominul Haque – 366 runs, 61 a match, HS 147 | Shadman Islam – 217 runs, 43.4 a match, HS 90

Wickets: Taijul Islam – 24 wickets, 4 a match, best 9 | Mehidy Hasan Miraz – 15 wickets, 3 a match, best 6 | Hasan Mahmud – 12 wickets, 4 a match, best 9

West Indies Season Leaders

Runs: Shai Hope – 793 runs, 72.09 a match, HS 196 | Justin Greaves – 775 runs, 64.58 a match, HS 202 | John Campbell – 550 runs, 55 a match, HS 125 | Brandon King – 494 runs, 49.4 a match, HS 130 | Roston Chase – 543 runs, 45.25 a match, HS 194

Wickets: Shamar Joseph – 35 wickets, 5 a match, best 9 | Jayden Seales – 35 wickets, 2.92 a match, best 6 | Justin Greaves – 25 wickets, 2.08 a match, best 7

Hope also sits fifth among all WTC run-scorers across the entire championship, with 793 runs from 11 innings. Seales and Joseph are joint third in the championship-wide wicket charts with 35 apiece.

Predicted XIs

This is a season opener for both sides in this series – no XI has yet been named. The following are likely XIs drawn from the verified squad lists. Always check the Statz fixture page for confirmed XIs on match day.

Bangladesh – Likely XI

1. Shadman Islam
2. Zakir Hasan
3. Najmul Hossain Shanto
4. Mominul Haque
5. Mushfiqur Rahim
6. Litton Das
7. Mehidy Hasan Miraz
8. Taijul Islam
9. Hasan Mahmud
10. Taskin Ahmed
11. Nahid Rana

West Indies – Likely XI

1. Kraigg Brathwaite
2. Brandon King
3. Alick Athanaze
4. Justin Greaves
5. Kavem Hodge
6. Roston Chase
7. Shai Hope
8. Jomel Warrican
9. Kemar Roach
10. Alzarri Joseph
11. Jayden Seales

These are likely XIs based on squad lists and are not confirmed. Check the Statz fixture page for toss updates and confirmed lineups on match day.

Dream11 Captain and Vice Captain Picks

Based on projected fantasy points from the likely XIs:

Captain: Mehidy Hasan Miraz (BAN) – 180.1 projected points. The all-rounder is the standout Dream11 pick in this fixture. He projects for 56.9 runs and 3.63 wickets if Bangladesh bat first, and contributes across all three disciplines. With 31 wickets and 274 runs in this head-to-head fixture, he is the most complete player on the park.

Vice Captain: Taijul Islam (BAN) – 160.9 projected points. Bangladesh’s leading wicket-taker in the WTC 2025/2027 cycle with 24 wickets at 4 a match. On a Mirpur surface that favours spin, Taijul projects for 4.58 wickets if Bangladesh bat first and 5.25 if West Indies bat first – a genuine match-winner.

Also consider:

• Kavem Hodge (WI) – projected 145.6 pts (BAN bat first) – 83.3% hit rate for 30+ runs this cycle
• Litton Das (BAN) – projected 143.1 pts – 306 runs in this head-to-head fixture, leads Bangladesh’s H2H run-scorers
• Najmul Hossain Shanto (BAN) – projected 142.8 pts – 647 runs this WTC cycle, 107.83 a match

Key Players

Mehidy Hasan Miraz (Bangladesh)

The pick of the match. Mehidy leads Bangladesh’s wicket-takers in this head-to-head fixture with 31 wickets from 10 matches, and adds 274 runs with the bat. This WTC cycle he has 15 wickets at 3 a match. On a Mirpur pitch that rewards off-spin, he is the player most likely to shape the result. His 1+ wicket hit rate stands at 80% for the season, and he has taken 2+ wickets in 60% of his matches.

Taijul Islam (Bangladesh)

Bangladesh’s most prolific bowler in this WTC cycle with 24 wickets at 4 a match, best figures of 9. He has taken at least one wicket in 100% of his matches this cycle – a perfect record across 6 Tests. At the Shere Bangla National Stadium, he is the ground’s leading wicket-taker since 2021 with 27 wickets from 9 matches. The left-arm spinner will be the most dangerous bowler on a wearing Mirpur surface.

Justin Greaves (West Indies)

West Indies’ most complete player in this WTC cycle. Greaves has 775 runs at 64.58 a match and 25 wickets at 2.08 a match – the only player in either squad contributing meaningfully in both disciplines across the full cycle. His last three scores of 180, 15 and 73 show a batter capable of match-defining innings. He has taken 1+ wicket in 80% of his matches this season and 2+ in 80% of his last five.

Najmul Hossain Shanto (Bangladesh)

Bangladesh’s leading run-scorer in the WTC 2025/2027 cycle with 647 runs at 107.83 a match, including a high score of 273. He has scored 20+ runs in 100% of his matches this cycle and 30+ in 83.3% – the most consistent batter in either side. His last three scores of 29, 84 and 0 show the variance that comes with Test cricket, but the underlying numbers are exceptional.

Who Will Win Bangladesh vs West Indies?

Bangladesh are the clear favourites. The Statz model gives them a 58% win probability batting first and 57.9% bowling first, with West Indies at 31.3% in either scenario and the draw at 10.8-10.9%. The verdict is Bangladesh, and the reasoning is straightforward: home advantage on a spin-friendly surface, the WTC table gap, and a bowling attack led by Taijul Islam and Mehidy Hasan Miraz that is ideally suited to these conditions.

West Indies’ head-to-head record (5-1 in this fixture in WTC cricket) is the one number that cuts against the grain – but most of those wins came in the Caribbean. On Bangladeshi soil, the spin equation shifts decisively. Nothing is guaranteed in a five-day Test, and the draw remains a live possibility at around 11%, but Bangladesh are the side to be on here.

Betting Angles

No best bets are available from the Statz model for this fixture. For real-time hit rates and player props, head to the Statz bet builder. Based on the hit rate data, the following angles are worth monitoring when markets open:

• Taijul Islam 1+ wicket – 100% hit rate across all 6 of his WTC matches this cycle. The most consistent bowling line in either squad on this surface.
• Najmul Hossain Shanto 20+ runs – 100% hit rate across all 6 WTC matches this cycle. The most reliable batting line in the match.
• Mushfiqur Rahim 20+ runs – 100% hit rate across 6 WTC matches this cycle, 100% in his last 10.
• Shamar Joseph 2+ wickets – 100% hit rate across all 7 of his WTC matches this cycle. The standout bowling option for West Indies.
• Alzarri Joseph 1+ wicket – 100% hit rate across 5 WTC matches this cycle. A reliable wicket-taking option if he plays.

All odds are indicative and subject to change. Always check the Statz bet builder for the latest data before placing any bet.

Bangladesh vs West Indies Prediction FAQ

Q: Who will win Bangladesh vs West Indies?

A: Bangladesh are the strong favourites. The Statz model gives them a 58% win probability, with West Indies at 31.3% and the draw at 10.9%. Home advantage, a spin-friendly surface and a stronger WTC cycle record all point towards Bangladesh. Nothing is guaranteed in a five-day Test, but the data leans clearly one way.

Q: What is the projected score for the 1st Test?

A: If Bangladesh bat first, the projected first-innings total is 364 and the match total is 1021.3. If West Indies bat first, the projected first innings is 282.5 and the match total is 980.4. The projected match total of 1001 is 104.3 runs above the Shere Bangla National Stadium average of 896.7.

Q: Who is favourite to win the toss?

A: The toss is a coin flip by definition, but the data suggests batting first is marginally preferable – Bangladesh’s win probability is 58% batting first versus 57.9% bowling first. The pitch wears as the match progresses, making spin increasingly dangerous in the fourth innings, which nudges the call towards batting first.

Q: Is Bangladesh a good bet to win this Test?

A: The model rates Bangladesh as strong favourites at 58% win probability. They have home advantage, a spin attack perfectly suited to Mirpur, and sit 4th in the WTC standings compared to West Indies’ 8th. However, West Indies hold a 5-1 head-to-head advantage in this fixture in WTC cricket, so the tourists are far from settled as a lost cause. Check indicative odds before committing.