Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe 1st Test Prediction (5 Nov): Projections & Preview
Afghanistan host Zimbabwe at the Sharjah Cricket Stadium for the 1st Test of a 2-match series. First ball is at 09:00 local time on Thursday 5 November (05:00 UK time, 10:30 IST). The series is level – the first Test of a 2-match series – and both sides will be keen to land the first blow on a neutral venue in the UAE. For full head-to-head data, projections and lineups, see the Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe fixture page on Statz.
The Venue and Toss Prediction
Sharjah Cricket Stadium has hosted 173 matches in the Statz dataset, producing an average first-innings score of 160.2 and an average match total of 308.6. Teams batting first have won just 45% of those games – a clear lean towards the side that bowls first. The last 10 matches here averaged 308.6 in total, consistent with the longer-term picture.
Both projected first-innings totals in this match sit well above the ground average – more on that in the projections section – suggesting the Statz model rates these batting lineups highly relative to the surface. The full Sharjah venue stats are on Statz.
On the toss, the data points towards bowling first. With bat-first sides winning only 45% of matches here, the captain who wins the toss may well choose to field. That said, Afghanistan win 51.5% batting first and 51.7% bowling first – a marginal difference of just 0.2 points – while Zimbabwe win 36.9% batting first and 36.7% bowling first, also a negligible gap. The toss is unlikely to be decisive in this one.
Form and Table
This is the opening match of the 2026 Test series between these two sides, so neither team has points on the board yet. Both enter with contrasting recent form.
Afghanistan
Afghanistan have drawn their last match. Their last 5 matches were played: 1 neutral, 4 away – a tough run on the road. Their recent results:
- 9 Oct 2026 vs Bangladesh (N): D – AFG 240 & 346/8, BAN 346 & 372/7
- 6 Jun 2026 vs India (A): L – AFG 152 & 112, IND 564/8
- 20 Oct 2025 vs Zimbabwe (A): L – AFG 127 & 159, ZIM 347
- 2 Jan 2025 vs Zimbabwe (A): W – AFG 157 & 363, ZIM 243 & 205
- 26 Dec 2024 vs Zimbabwe (A): D – AFG 699, ZIM 586 & 142/4
Afghanistan’s last outing against Bangladesh in Abu Dhabi ended in a draw, with both sides posting big totals. The defeat to India in June was a heavy one, but their record against Zimbabwe specifically shows they are capable of competing hard in this fixture.
Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe have won their last 2. Their last 5 matches were played: 5 home – so this neutral venue in Sharjah represents a change of conditions. Their recent results:
- 28 Jun 2026 vs Bangladesh (H): W – ZIM 410, BAN 140 & 185
- 20 Oct 2025 vs Afghanistan (H): W – ZIM 347, AFG 127 & 159
- 7 Aug 2025 vs New Zealand (H): L – ZIM 125 & 117, NZ 601/3
- 30 Jul 2025 vs New Zealand (H): L – ZIM 149 & 165, NZ 307 & 8/1
- 6 Jul 2025 vs South Africa (H): L – ZIM 170 & 220, SA 626/5
Zimbabwe’s two-match winning run is built entirely on home conditions in Harare and Bulawayo. Moving to the UAE strips away that advantage, and their record against stronger opposition earlier in the cycle was difficult. The win over Bangladesh in June was convincing, though – 410 in the first innings and a dominant bowling display.
Head-to-Head
In five Test meetings between these sides (Statz data), the record is perfectly level: Afghanistan 2 wins, Zimbabwe 2 wins, 1 draw. The last five meetings, newest first:
- 20 Oct 2025, Harare Sports Club: Zimbabwe won by an innings and 73 runs
- 2 Jan 2025, Queens Sports Club: Afghanistan won by 72 runs
- 26 Dec 2024, Queens Sports Club: Match drawn
- 10 Mar 2021, Sheikh Zayed Stadium: Afghanistan won by 6 wickets
- 2 Mar 2021, Sheikh Zayed Stadium: Zimbabwe won by 10 wickets
The most recent meeting in October 2025 went emphatically to Zimbabwe, who won by an innings and 73 runs in Harare. Afghanistan hit back before that with a 72-run win in Bulawayo. The two UAE meetings in 2021 split one apiece – relevant context given this match returns to the same region.
Among the top performers across these five Tests, Hashmatullah Shahidi leads Afghanistan’s run-scorers with 471 runs in 5 matches and remains in the current squad. Rahmat Shah has 282 runs in 4 meetings and is also available. For Zimbabwe, Ben Curran is the leading active run-scorer with 204 runs in 3 matches. Blessing Muzarabani tops the wicket charts with 10 across 5 meetings and is in the current squad, while Brian Bennett has 5 wickets in 3 matches and is also available. Note that Sean Williams (316 runs) and Sikandar Raza (254 runs, 5 wickets) are Zimbabwe’s historical leaders in this fixture but are no longer in the current squad.
Statz Projections and Projected Score
The Statz projections give Afghanistan a narrow edge regardless of the toss result, with a draw also in the frame as a genuine third outcome.
If Afghanistan bat first: Projected first-innings total of 337.3, match total of 1,019.7. Win probability – Afghanistan 51.5%, Zimbabwe 36.7%, draw 11.8%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 163.9 to 551.5.
If Zimbabwe bat first: Projected first-innings total of 301.6, match total of 994.3. Win probability – Afghanistan 51.7%, Zimbabwe 36.9%, draw 11.4%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 150.1 to 499.5.
Both scenarios produce projected match totals well above the Sharjah average of 308.6. If Afghanistan bat first, their projected first innings of 337.3 is 177.1 runs above the ground’s first-innings average of 160.2; if Zimbabwe bat first, their projected first innings of 301.6 is 141.4 runs above the ground’s first-innings average of 160.2. The wide P10-P90 ranges reflect the inherent uncertainty of Test cricket – a low first-innings total is very much possible. This match can be drawn: 51.6% Afghanistan, 36.8% Zimbabwe, 11.6% the draw.
Season Leaders
Afghanistan – Test Series 2026
Runs (among Afghanistan’s players): Rahmat Shah – 229 runs, 114.5 per match, HS 156 | Sediqullah Atal – 187 runs, 93.5 per match, HS 128 | Abdul Malik – 88 runs, 44 per match, HS 64
Wickets (among Afghanistan’s players): Mohammad Saleem – 12 wickets, 6 per match, best 6 | Yamin Ahmadzai – 5 wickets, 5 per match, best 5 | Ismat Alam – 2 wickets, 2 per match, best 2
Across the whole competition, Rahmat Shah leads all run-scorers with 229 runs, and Mohammad Saleem leads all wicket-takers with 12 – both Afghanistan players sit at the top of the competition-wide charts.
Zimbabwe – Test Series 2026
Runs (among Zimbabwe’s players): Innocent Kaia – 140 runs, 140 per match, HS 140 | Wesley Madhevere – 77 runs, 77 per match, HS 77 | Craig Ervine – 60 runs, 60 per match, HS 60
Wickets (among Zimbabwe’s players): Blessing Muzarabani – 6 wickets, 6 per match, best 6 | Newman Nyamhuri – 6 wickets, 6 per match, best 6 | Richard Ngarava – 5 wickets, 5 per match, best 5
Zimbabwe have played only one Test this cycle so far, so these figures come from a single match. Kaia’s 140 is particularly eye-catching – a century on debut in the format would give any side confidence heading into this series.
Predicted XIs
Afghanistan (based on XI vs Bangladesh, 09 Oct 2026)
- Abdul Malik
- Sediqullah Atal
- Shahidullah Kamal
- Rahmat Shah (c)
- Hashmatullah Shahidi
- Ikram Alikhil (wk)
- Ismat Alam
- Yamin Ahmadzai
- Qais Ahmad
- Zia ur Rehman Akbar
- Mohammad Saleem
Zimbabwe (based on XI vs Bangladesh, 28 Jun 2026)
- Innocent Kaia
- Ben Curran
- Brendan Taylor
- Brian Bennett
- Craig Ervine
- Tafadzwa Tsiga (wk)
- Wesley Madhevere
- Brad Evans
- Newman Nyamhuri
- Richard Ngarava (c)
- Blessing Muzarabani
These lineups are based on the most recent match for each side. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.
Dream11 Captain and Vice Captain Picks
Based on projected fantasy points from the Statz model:
Captain: Rahmat Shah (AFG) – 151.3 projected points. The Afghanistan skipper leads the competition’s run-scoring charts with 229 runs this cycle at 114.5 per match, and his all-round value adds further upside. The standout captain pick in this fixture.
Vice Captain: Brendan Taylor (ZIM) – 136.1 projected points. Taylor’s projected 76.6 runs batting at three makes him Zimbabwe’s most dangerous batting option in the Statz model.
Also consider:
- Innocent Kaia (ZIM) – 144.9 projected points (Zimbabwe bat first scenario) – 140 runs in his only Test this cycle
- Mohammad Saleem (AFG) – 133.1 projected points (Zimbabwe bat first scenario) – 12 wickets this cycle, 6 per match
- Shahidullah Kamal (AFG) – 139.7 projected points (Afghanistan bat first scenario) – genuine all-round contribution projected
Key Players
Rahmat Shah (Afghanistan)
The Afghanistan captain is the standout batter in this fixture by some distance. Rahmat Shah leads all run-scorers in the Test Series 2026 competition with 229 runs at 114.5 per match, with a highest score of 156. In the head-to-head record against Zimbabwe specifically, he has 282 runs across 4 meetings. His projected 95.6 runs in the Afghanistan-bats-first scenario makes him the model’s top-ranked batter in this match. The Statz bet builder is the place to explore player props for this fixture.
Blessing Muzarabani (Zimbabwe)
The tall seamer is Zimbabwe’s most potent weapon with the ball. Muzarabani has taken 10 wickets across 5 Test meetings with Afghanistan – the most of any bowler in this head-to-head – and leads Zimbabwe’s wicket-takers in the 2026 cycle with 6 wickets at 6 per match. His projected 4.69 wickets in the Afghanistan-bats-first scenario is the highest of any bowler in the Statz model for this match.
Mohammad Saleem (Afghanistan)
Afghanistan’s leading wicket-taker this cycle has been relentless. Mohammad Saleem has 12 wickets in 2 Tests at 6 per match, with a best of 6 in an innings – and he leads the entire competition’s wicket-taking charts. His projected 5.19 wickets in the Zimbabwe-bats-first scenario underlines his threat. If Afghanistan are to win this Test, Saleem’s ability to take wickets in clusters will be central to that.
Innocent Kaia (Zimbabwe)
Kaia announced himself in Test cricket with 140 runs in Zimbabwe’s win over Bangladesh in June – the highest score among Zimbabwe’s batters this cycle. His projected 84.2 runs in the Zimbabwe-bats-first scenario makes him the model’s top-ranked batter for Zimbabwe. If he can replicate that form on a neutral surface in Sharjah, Zimbabwe’s batting will look considerably more threatening.
Who Will Win Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe?
Statz projects Afghanistan to win this 1st Test, with a 51.6% win probability against Zimbabwe’s 36.8%, and an 11.6% chance of a draw. The margin is narrow – this is a lean rather than a strong call – but Afghanistan hold the edge in both scenarios regardless of who wins the toss.
The head-to-head record is perfectly level at 2-2 across five Tests, which underlines how closely matched these sides are. Zimbabwe’s most recent win – by an innings and 73 runs in Harare in October 2025 – was emphatic, but that was on home soil. The two UAE meetings in 2021 split one apiece, and Afghanistan’s batting depth, led by Rahmat Shah and Sediqullah Atal, gives them an edge on a surface that historically favours the chasing side. Mohammad Saleem’s wicket-taking form this cycle is another factor that tilts the balance towards the home side.
Zimbabwe’s two-match winning run is built on home conditions, and adapting to Sharjah will be the key test for their batters. Nothing is guaranteed in a five-day match, but the Statz model’s consistent lean towards Afghanistan across both toss scenarios is hard to ignore.
Betting Angles
There are no specific best bets flagged by the Statz model for this fixture. Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time player prop data and hit rates as they become available closer to the match. Key players to watch for batting and bowling markets include Rahmat Shah (229 runs this cycle), Mohammad Saleem (12 wickets this cycle) and Blessing Muzarabani (10 wickets in 5 head-to-head meetings). All odds are indicative and subject to change.
Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe Prediction FAQ
Q: Who will win Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe in the 1st Test?
A: Statz projects Afghanistan to win, with a 51.6% win probability. Zimbabwe have a 36.8% chance and the draw sits at 11.6%. It is a narrow lean – these sides are evenly matched historically – but Afghanistan hold the edge in both toss scenarios according to the model.
Q: What is the projected score for Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe?
A: If Afghanistan bat first, the projected first-innings total is 337.3 and the match total is 1,019.7. If Zimbabwe bat first, the projected first innings is 301.6 and the match total is 994.3. Both sit well above the Sharjah ground average of 308.6 for a full match.
Q: Who is favourite to win the toss in this Test?
A: The toss is a 50-50 call by definition, but the venue data suggests bowling first may be the preferred choice – teams batting first at Sharjah have won only 45% of matches. That said, Afghanistan’s win probability barely shifts between batting and bowling first (51.5% vs 51.7%), so the toss is unlikely to be the decisive factor.
Q: Is Afghanistan a good bet to win this Test?
A: The Statz model gives Afghanistan a 51.6% win probability, which represents a modest edge over Zimbabwe. The head-to-head record is level at 2-2, so this is far from settled. Afghanistan’s stronger batting form this cycle and Mohammad Saleem’s wicket-taking record support the lean, but a draw or Zimbabwe win are both live outcomes. Always check indicative odds before placing any bet.