Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe ODI Prediction (23 Oct): Projections & Preview
Afghanistan face Zimbabwe in the Tri-Nation Series at Sharjah Cricket Stadium on Friday 23 October 2026. First ball is at 15:30 local time on Friday 23 October (12:30 UK time, 17:00 IST). Afghanistan sit top of the table after two wins, while Zimbabwe are second with one victory and one defeat. For full match data, head-to-head records and live projections, check the Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe fixture page on Statz.
The Venue and Toss Prediction
Sharjah Cricket Stadium is a batting-friendly venue. Across 10 ODI matches here, the average match total stands at 393.1 and the average first-innings score is 240.6. Teams batting first have won 44.4% of matches at this ground – a slight edge to chasing sides. The pitch is tagged as bowler-friendly by Statz, though the boundary percentage of 42.9% shows runs still flow freely.
Seam bowlers have taken 50% of wickets at an economy rate of 5.11, while spinners account for 42.8% of dismissals at 4.29 runs per over. Afghanistan have played nine ODIs here since 2021, winning six and losing two with one no-result. Their top scorer at the venue is Rahmanullah Gurbaz with 474 runs, and their leading bowler is AM Ghazanfar with 12 wickets. Zimbabwe have no recent record at Sharjah in this dataset.
The toss angle favours Afghanistan. They win 65.6% batting first and 68.3% bowling first – better bowling first by 2.7 points. Zimbabwe win 28.7% batting first and 31.4% bowling first, also gaining a marginal edge by bowling first. Afghanistan’s superior overall record suggests they will be happier with whatever call comes their way.
Form and Table
Afghanistan – 1st (P2 W2 L0, 4 pts)
Afghanistan have won their last 5. Their recent form in this series reads:
- 21 Oct vs Bangladesh (N): W – AFG 161/3 (35.3), BAN 160/10 (41.2)
- 19 Oct vs Zimbabwe (N): W – AFG 294/10 (50), ZIM 136/10 (38.4)
- 15 Aug vs Ireland (N): W – AFG 302/4 (48.5), IRE 298/7 (50)
- 12 Aug vs Ireland (N): W – AFG 343/9 (50), IRE 301/10 (48)
- 10 Aug vs Ireland (N): W – AFG 207/7 (44.5), IRE 206/10 (46.3)
Afghanistan are in imperious form. They have dismantled Zimbabwe by 158 runs just four days ago and are riding a five-match winning streak. Their net run rate of 2.362 is the best in the tournament.
Zimbabwe – 2nd (P2 W1 L1, 2 pts)
Zimbabwe have lost their last match. Their recent form in this series reads:
- 19 Oct vs Afghanistan (N): L – ZIM 136/10 (38.4), AFG 294/10 (50)
- 17 Oct vs Bangladesh (N): W – ZIM 271/8 (50), BAN 172/10 (33.4)
- 20 Sep vs Australia (H): L – ZIM 271/8 (50), AUS 272/9 (49.5)
- 18 Sep vs Australia (H): L – ZIM 272/10 (48.3), AUS 356/6 (50)
- 15 Sep vs Australia (H): L – ZIM 235/10 (45.1), AUS 294/8 (50)
Zimbabwe’s heavy defeat to Afghanistan four days ago has left them in a precarious position. They did beat Bangladesh convincingly but have now lost three of their last five matches overall. Their net run rate of -0.59 reflects a side struggling to build momentum.
Head-to-Head
Afghanistan hold complete dominance in this fixture. In seven ODI meetings across all competitions, Afghanistan have won six with no defeats – one match ended in no-result. The most recent clash came on 19 October 2026 at Sheikh Zayed Stadium, where Afghanistan hammered Zimbabwe by 158 runs.
Before that, Afghanistan won by 8 wickets at Harare Sports Club on 21 December 2024, then by 232 runs on 19 December 2024. The no-result came on 17 December 2024, also at Harare. Going back further, Afghanistan won by 4 wickets on 9 June 2022 at Harare.
Afghanistan’s leading run-scorer in this head-to-head is Sediqullah Atal with 258 runs from three matches, followed by Rahmat Shah with 224 runs from six matches and Ibrahim Zadran with 223 runs from four matches. Rashid Khan has taken 14 wickets from three matches against Zimbabwe – a devastating record. For Zimbabwe, Sikandar Raza has scored 225 runs from six meetings, while Blessing Muzarabani has taken 9 wickets from four matches.
Statz Projections and Projected Score
The Statz projections paint Afghanistan as strong favourites.
If Afghanistan bat first: Projected first-innings total of 248.7, match total of 466.5. Win probability – AFG 65.6%, ZIM 31.4%, tie/no-result 3%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 216 to 282.
If Zimbabwe bat first: Projected first-innings total of 228.6, match total of 448.1. Win probability – AFG 68.3%, ZIM 28.7%, tie/no-result 3%. First-innings P10-P90 range: 174 to 274.
The projected match total of 457 is 63.9 runs above the Sharjah Cricket Stadium average of 393.1. If Afghanistan bat first their projected first innings of 248.7 is 8.1 runs above the ground’s first-innings average of 240.6; if Zimbabwe bat first their projected first innings of 228.6 is 12 runs below the ground’s first-innings average of 240.6. Match total P10-P90 range: 400 to 514.
Season Leaders
Afghanistan – Tri-Nation Series 2026
Runs: Ibrahim Zadran – 124 runs, 62 a match, HS 90 | Sediqullah Atal – 106 runs, 53 a match, HS 102 | Rahmat Shah – 74 runs, 37 a match, HS 67
Wickets: Rashid Khan – 8 wickets, 4 a match | Azmatullah Omarzai – 2 wickets, 1 a match | Fazalhaq Farooqi – 2 wickets, 2 a match
Zimbabwe – Tri-Nation Series 2026
Runs: Craig Ervine – 93 runs, 93 a match, HS 93 | Brendan Taylor – 82 runs, 41 a match, HS 81 | Sikandar Raza – 52 runs, 26 a match, HS 48
Wickets: Brad Evans – 7 wickets, 3.5 a match | Ernest Masuku – 3 wickets, 3 a match | Blessing Muzarabani – 3 wickets, 1.5 a match
Predicted XIs
Afghanistan (based on XI vs Bangladesh, 21 Oct 2026)
- Rahmanullah Gurbaz (wk)
- Ibrahim Zadran
- Sediqullah Atal
- Rahmat Shah (c)
- Hashmatullah Shahidi
- Azmatullah Omarzai
- Mohammad Nabi
- Rashid Khan
- AM Ghazanfar
- Bilal Sami
- Yamin Ahmadzai
Zimbabwe (based on XI vs Afghanistan, 19 Oct 2026)
- Brian Bennett
- Ben Curran
- Tafadzwa Tsiga (wk)
- Brendan Taylor (wk)
- Sikandar Raza (c)
- Ryan Burl
- Wesley Madhevere
- Brad Evans
- Wellington Masakadza
- Ernest Masuku
- Blessing Muzarabani
These lineups are based on the most recent match for each team. Always check the fixture page on Statz for toss updates and confirmed XIs on match day.
Dream11 Captain and Vice Captain Picks
Captain: Brad Evans (ZIM) – projected 95.8 points. The all-rounder has taken 7 wickets in two matches this series at 3.5 a match and provides balance with the bat. His bowling has been the standout for Zimbabwe.
Vice Captain: Graeme Cremer (ZIM) – projected 95.6 points. The spinner offers value across multiple dimensions and has been a key part of Zimbabwe’s bowling attack.
Also consider:
- Rashid Khan (AFG) – projected 137.6 points – 8 wickets in two matches, 4 a match, plus valuable lower-order runs
- Ibrahim Zadran (AFG) – projected 79.8 points – 124 runs at 62 a match, the series’ leading run-scorer
- Sikandar Raza (ZIM) – projected 92.8 points – Zimbabwe’s captain and all-rounder, 52 runs and 3 wickets in two matches
Key Players
Rashid Khan (Afghanistan)
Afghanistan’s match-winner with the ball. Rashid has taken 8 wickets in just two matches this series, averaging 4 a match. His record against Zimbabwe is extraordinary – 14 wickets from three ODI meetings. He is the competition’s leading wicket-taker and the most dangerous bowler on show. His leg-spin on a Sharjah pitch that favours spinners makes him the player Zimbabwe fear most.
Ibrahim Zadran (Afghanistan)
Afghanistan’s leading run-scorer in this series with 124 runs at 62 a match. Zadran has scored 90 and 34 in his two innings and sits atop the tournament’s run-scoring charts. His consistency and ability to build innings in the middle order make him crucial to Afghanistan’s batting plans. The Statz bet builder shows his projected runs at 45.1 with a strike rate of 82.4.
Brad Evans (Zimbabwe)
Zimbabwe’s standout performer in this series. Evans has taken 7 wickets from two matches at 3.5 a match and has contributed with the bat. His last two returns of 4 and 3 wickets show a bowler in form. He is Zimbabwe’s best hope of restricting Afghanistan’s batsmen and offers value with the bat lower down the order.
Sikandar Raza (Zimbabwe)
Zimbabwe’s captain and their most important all-rounder. Raza has scored 225 runs against Afghanistan across six ODI meetings and brings experience and balance to the Zimbabwe lineup. His projected runs are 29.3 with a strike rate of 84.6, and he has taken 3 wickets in two matches this series. A dual threat that Zimbabwe will lean on heavily.
Conditions
Clear skies are forecast for Sharjah with temperatures around 34 degrees at the start and humidity at 43%. No rain is expected. Wind is moderate at 20 km/h from the west – conditions that should suit fast bowlers early on but may ease as the day progresses.
Who Will Win Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe?
Afghanistan are strong favourites and the Statz projections back that emphatically. Afghanistan win 67% of the time with Zimbabwe at 30.1%. Afghanistan’s form is imperious – five wins on the bounce – and they have demolished Zimbabwe in their last meeting. Their bowling attack, led by Rashid Khan’s 8 wickets in two matches, is the best in the tournament. Zimbabwe’s heavy defeat four days ago and their overall record against Afghanistan (0 wins in 7 ODIs) make this a mountain to climb.
The only caveat is that Zimbabwe did beat Bangladesh convincingly and have shown they can compete in this series. But Afghanistan’s superiority across both disciplines makes them the clear pick here.
Betting Angles
Head to the Statz bet builder for real-time odds on this fixture. Key angles to explore:
- Rashid Khan 2+ wickets – The Afghanistan spinner has taken 4 wickets in each of his two matches this series. He is the tournament’s leading wicket-taker and has 14 wickets against Zimbabwe across their ODI history.
- Ibrahim Zadran 40+ runs – Afghanistan’s leading run-scorer at 62 a match with projected runs of 45.1. He has scored 90 and 34 in his two innings this series.
- Brad Evans 1+ wicket – Zimbabwe’s standout bowler with 7 wickets in two matches. He has taken at least one wicket in both of his appearances this series.
- Afghanistan to win – The projections make Afghanistan 67% favourites. Their form, their head-to-head record and their bowling attack all point to a comfortable victory.
Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe Prediction FAQ
Q: Who will win Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe?
A: Afghanistan are strong favourites at 67% win probability. They have won their last five matches, sit top of the table and have beaten Zimbabwe by 158 runs just four days ago. Zimbabwe have no wins in seven ODI meetings against Afghanistan.
Q: What is the projected score?
A: The projected match total is 457 runs, well above the Sharjah Cricket Stadium average of 393.1. If Afghanistan bat first, the projected first innings is 248.7; if Zimbabwe bat first, it is 228.6.
Q: Who is favourite to win the toss?
A: Afghanistan win 65.6% batting first and 68.3% bowling first – they gain a marginal 2.7-point edge by bowling first. Zimbabwe also prefer bowling first by 2.7 points. Afghanistan’s overall superiority means they will be happier with either outcome.
Q: Is Afghanistan a good bet?
A: Yes. Afghanistan’s 67% win probability reflects their dominance in form, their 6-0 head-to-head record against Zimbabwe, and their leading bowling attack. Rashid Khan has taken 8 wickets in two matches this series and 14 against Zimbabwe across their ODI history. The projections make Afghanistan a strong selection.