MI vs RR Preview – IPL 2026 | Statz

The final league game at the Wankhede this season pits 9th-placed Mumbai Indians (8 pts) against 4th-placed Rajasthan Royals (14 pts) on Saturday. First ball at 3:30 PM IST (11:00 AM BST). MI’s season is done – four wins from 13 is relegation form in any competition. RR need a win to rubber-stamp a playoff spot, though their position at 4th looks relatively secure. Full match data on the Statz fixture page.

The Venue

Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai is tagged as a batting paradise by Statz across 30 T20s since May 2022. The average first innings score sits at 191.5 with an average match total of 371.5. Teams chasing have dominated here – bat-first win rate is just 37%. Pace bowlers go at 10.25 economy, spinners at 8.76. The most recent game saw LSG post 228/5 before MI chased it down with 229/4 on 4 May. Eleven of the last 30 innings here have produced 210+ scores.

Form and Table

Mumbai Indians sit 9th with 8 points from 13 games (W4 L9). Their last five reads LWLWL – inconsistency personified. Last time out, they managed just 147/8 against KKR and lost by 4 wickets. Their two wins came against PBKS (205/4) and LSG (229/4), both away, showing they can score when it clicks.

Rajasthan Royals are 4th with 14 points from 13 (W7 L6). Last five: WLLLW. They bounced back against LSG with a clinical chase of 220 (225/3), but three consecutive losses before that against DC, GT and DC again exposed some middle-order frailty.

IPL 2026 Top 4:

Both teams have one game remaining. MI play for pride, RR for confirmation of their playoff place.

Head-to-Head

22 meetings since 2013 (Statz data) and it is dead level – 11 wins apiece. The last five have alternated: LWLLW from MI’s perspective. The most recent clash was in April 2026 at Barsapara where RR won a rain-shortened match by 27 runs (150/3 vs 123/9 in 11 overs). At the Wankhede specifically, MI have the edge with 17 wins from 31 matches. RR have won 4 from 7 visits since 2021.

Statz Projections

Statz gives RR a narrow edge. In the MI-bat-first scenario, RR win probability is 50.5% with a projected first innings of 207.7 and match total of 403.1. If RR bat first, it flips to near coin-toss territory – MI 49.8%, RR 48.2%. Projected first innings either way sits around 207, well above the ground average of 191.5 – expect runs. Check the full projections breakdown here.

IPL 2026 Season Leaders

Orange Cap top 5:

1. Sai Sudharsan (GT) – 638 runs
2. Shubman Gill (GT) – 616 runs
3. Heinrich Klaasen (SRH) – 606 runs
4. Vaibhav Suryavanshi (RR) – 579 runs
5. Ishan Kishan (SRH) – 569 runs

Purple Cap top 5:

1. Kagiso Rabada (GT) – 24 wickets
2. Bhuvneshwar Kumar (CSK) – 24 wickets
3. Anshul Kamboj (SRH) – 21 wickets
4. Rashid Khan (GT) – 19 wickets
5. Eshan Malinga (SRH) – 19 wickets

MI Season Leaders: Ryan Rickelton leads with 436 runs at 39.64 (HS 123). AM Ghazanfar tops the wickets with 14 from 13 matches.

RR Season Leaders: Vaibhav Suryavanshi has been sensational with 579 runs at 44.54 (HS 103). Jofra Archer leads their bowling with 18 wickets from 13 matches.

Predicted XIs

Mumbai Indians (based on 20 May vs KKR):

Ryan Rickelton (wk), Rohit Sharma, Naman Dhir, Suryakumar Yadav, Tilak Varma, Hardik Pandya (c), Will Jacks, Corbin Bosch, Deepak Chahar, Jasprit Bumrah, Raghu Sharma

Rajasthan Royals (based on 19 May vs LSG):

Yashasvi Jaiswal (c), Lhuan-dre Pretorius, Dhruv Jurel (wk), Shubham Dubey, Dasun Shanaka, Jofra Archer, Sandeep Sharma, Sushant Mishra, Brijesh Sharma, Yash Raj Punja, Donovan Ferreira

Check the fixture page for confirmed lineups after the toss.

Fantasy Cricket Tips – Captain and Vice Captain

From the Statz projections (in recent XI only):

Captain: Corbin Bosch (MI) – 95.3 projected Dream11 points. The allrounder has been MI’s most consistent performer with the ball, projected for 1.85 wickets at 10.32 economy plus handy lower-order runs.

Vice Captain: Vaibhav Suryavanshi (RR) – 89.1 projected points. The Orange Cap contender is projected for 39.4 runs at a blistering 228.6 strike rate.

Also consider: Ryan Rickelton (MI) 87.6 pts, Will Jacks (MI) 86.4 pts, Yash Raj Punja (RR) 83.2 pts.

Key Players

Vaibhav Suryavanshi (RR) – The 17-year-old has 579 runs this IPL season at 44.54. His 20+ run hit rate is 76.9% for the season and 80% in his last five innings. At a Wankhede that averages 191.5 first innings, he could feast.

Corbin Bosch (MI) – 11 wickets this season with a 1+ wicket hit rate of 100% across his last 10 matches and a 2+ wicket hit rate of 60%. Statz projects him for nearly 2 wickets here – the best bowling projection in the match.

Jofra Archer (RR) – 18 wickets this season, Purple Cap contender. His 1+ wicket hit rate is 84.6% for the season (80% last 5). Even on a batting paradise, Archer finds a way through.

Ryan Rickelton (MI) – 436 runs at 39.64 with a highest of 123 this season. His 30+ run hit rate is 54.5% for the campaign (60% last 5). Statz projects him for 38.2 runs here.

Conditions

Clear skies in Mumbai, 34 degrees at the start with 76% humidity. No rain expected.

Verdict and Betting Angles

RR get the narrow edge from Statz at 50.5% in the MI-bat-first scenario, but this is essentially a coin flip. The market agrees – Dafabet has both sides at 1.93. RR’s superior batting depth with Suryavanshi and Jaiswal at the top, plus Archer’s death bowling, should prove the difference against an MI side that has lost 9 of 13. Take RR to win at 1.93 (Dafabet).

Betting angles:

• Ryan Rickelton over 24.5 runs @ 1.83 (bet365) – Statz edge 10.4%, projected for 37 runs. Hit rate of 54.5% this season for 20+ runs.
• Vaibhav Suryavanshi over 28.5 runs @ 1.83 (Ladbrokes) – Statz edge 10.2%, projected for 40.6 runs. Season hit rate of 76.9% for 30+ runs.
• Corbin Bosch 1+ wicket – 100% hit rate last 10 matches. Near certainty on a ground where pace takes 66.2% of wickets.
• Jofra Archer 1+ wicket – 84.6% season hit rate, projected for 1.55 wickets.

Build your own picks on the Statz Bet Builder.